{"id":53716,"date":"2020-07-18T22:00:04","date_gmt":"2020-07-19T05:00:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=53716"},"modified":"2020-07-18T23:18:46","modified_gmt":"2020-07-19T06:18:46","slug":"housing-sentiment-completes-v-shaped-recovery-stocks-following","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/07\/18\/housing-sentiment-completes-v-shaped-recovery-stocks-following\/","title":{"rendered":"Housing Sentiment Completes V-Shaped Recovery, Stocks Following"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Housing Market Index (HMI) soared to 72 in July. The 14-point move completed a V-shaped recovery in the sentiment of home builders. Unlike <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/06\/20\/why-lennar-and-other-home-builder-stocks-failed-to-rally-on-good-news\/\">the reaction to the surprisingly strong June HMI<\/a>, the reaction to July&#8217;s surprise was definitely positive. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Message in Home Builder Sentiment<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) explained the surge in the HMI with a mix of pent-up demand and the usual collection of drivers: &#8220;Builders are seeing strong traffic and&nbsp; interest in new construction as existing home inventory remains lean. Moreover, builders in the Northeast and the Midwest are benefiting from demand that was sidelined during lockdowns in the spring.&nbsp; Low interest rates are also fueling demand&#8230;&#8221; Builders are essentially expressing confidence that they can get back to business as usual.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Housing Market Index jumped from 37 in May to 58 in June. The V-shaped recovery is all the more impressive given <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/04\/16\/housing-downturn-home-builder-sentiment-counters-freddie-mac-optimism\/\">the trough in April<\/a> sent the HMI back to the early days of the recovery from the collapse of the housing bubble. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eyeonhousing.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/HMI-July.jpg?w=1400\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/eyeonhousing.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/HMI-July.jpg?w=1400\" alt=\"\"\/><\/a><figcaption><strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/eyeonhousing.org\/2020\/07\/builder-confidence-rallies-to-pre-pandemic-level-in-july\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">National Association of Home Builders<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Message in the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (ITB)<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index (ITB) gained 1.9% in response to the HMI. This move was just enough to push ITB back to price levels last seen on February 25th. Compared to the 0.6% loss in response to the June HMI, ITB is acting much better. With a hint of follow-through on Friday, ITB finally looks poised to rally back to its 13-year high set in February just ahead of the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. At that point, ITB will complete its own V-shaped recovery, lagged behind HMI. (Stock chart technicians may recognize a kind of <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/school.stockcharts.com\/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle_continuation\" target=\"_blank\">bullish cup and handle pattern<\/a> forming).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image is-style-default\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/07\/200717_ITB-iShares-Dow-Jones-US-Home-Construction-Index-Fund-ETF.png\" alt=\"The iShares U.S. Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) is working on a slow-motion breakout and closed the week near a 5-month high.\" class=\"wp-image-53705\"\/><figcaption>The iShares U.S. Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) is working on a slow-motion breakout and closed the week near a 5-month high.<br><strong>Source: FreeStockCharts<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The slowly forming breakout in ITB represents the resolution of a month-long yawn over June&#8217;s good news in housing data. That period included a successful test of support at the 200-day moving average (DMA). In other words, ITB received a fresh injection of bullishness. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>A Footnote from Housing Starts<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.census.gov\/construction\/nrc\/pdf\/newresconst_202006.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Data on housing starts<\/a> came the day after the HMI. June single-family housing starts increased 11.7% over May&#8217;s 746,000 annualized level. However, starts were still down 1.1% year-over-year. The chart below shows June starts are lagging well behind June\/July sentiment as the peak in starts remains another 26% away. Housing starts were last at this level a year ago. July&#8217;s full recovery in HMI suggests housing starts for July should jump significantly from June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<center><iframe src=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/graph\/graph-landing.php?g=t5GO&amp;width=670&amp;height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:670px; height:525px;\" allowtransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"><\/iframe><\/center>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\"><strong>Source: US. Bureau of the Census, Privately Owned Housing Starts: 1-Unit Structures [HOUST1F],&nbsp;<a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/series\/HOUST1F\/\" target=\"_blank\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, July 18, 2020.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Trade<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>My covered call trade in Lennar (LEN) from a month ago ended profitably with my position getting called away. LEN broke out along with ITB; LEN is just a percent or two away from the February multi-year high. I was expecting LEN to churn for longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I also took profits in half of my remaining position in ITB shares. I sold call options against that half and the position was called away on Friday along with LEN. I am content to sit on my remaining ITB shares although may decide to sell calls against the position as ITB approaches $50.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A new trade in ITB, or any of the other home builders that are breaking out is relatively straightforward: buy here and stop out below the breakout line. For ITB that line is around $46\/share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long ITB<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Housing Market Index (HMI) soared to 72 in July. The 14-point move completed a V-shaped recovery in the sentiment of home builders. Unlike the reaction to the surprisingly strong June HMI, the reaction to July&#8217;s surprise was definitely positive. The Message in Home Builder Sentiment The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) explained the &#8230; <a title=\"Housing Sentiment Completes V-Shaped Recovery, Stocks Following\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/07\/18\/housing-sentiment-completes-v-shaped-recovery-stocks-following\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,35,511,62],"tags":[1160,2015,1410,2312,1206,1162,1159,1161],"class_list":["post-53716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakout","category-housing","category-support","category-technical-analysis","tag-hmi","tag-home-builders","tag-housing-starts","tag-ishares-dow-jones-us-home-construction-index-fund-etf","tag-itb","tag-nahb","tag-nahbwells-fargo-housing-market-index","tag-national-association-of-home-builders"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Housing Sentiment Completes V-Shaped Recovery, Stocks Following - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/07\/18\/housing-sentiment-completes-v-shaped-recovery-stocks-following\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Housing Sentiment Completes V-Shaped Recovery, Stocks Following - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Housing Market Index (HMI) soared to 72 in July. The 14-point move completed a V-shaped recovery in the sentiment of home builders. Unlike the reaction to the surprisingly strong June HMI, the reaction to July&#8217;s surprise was definitely positive. The Message in Home Builder Sentiment The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) explained the ... 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The 14-point move completed a V-shaped recovery in the sentiment of home builders. Unlike the reaction to the surprisingly strong June HMI, the reaction to July&#8217;s surprise was definitely positive. The Message in Home Builder Sentiment The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) explained the ... 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