{"id":53017,"date":"2020-05-16T00:40:52","date_gmt":"2020-05-16T07:40:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=53017"},"modified":"2020-05-16T00:40:54","modified_gmt":"2020-05-16T07:40:54","slug":"housing-starts-construction-employment-undermine-strong-q1-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/05\/16\/housing-starts-construction-employment-undermine-strong-q1-gdp\/","title":{"rendered":"Latest Housing Starts, Construction Employment Undermine Strong Q1 GDP"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>U.S. <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bea.gov\/system\/files\/2020-05\/gdp1q20_adv.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2020<\/a> (advanced estimate) plunged by 4.8% as the coronavirus pandemic put the economy on lockdown. The following categories made positive contributions to GDP in ascending order of their contribution to the percentage change:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Housing and utilities: .08%<\/li><li>Change in farm inventories: 0.10%<\/li><li>Government consumption expenditures and gross investment: 0.13%<\/li><li>Financial services and insurance: 0.15%<\/li><li>Software: 0.16%<\/li><li>Final consumption expenditures of nonprofit institutions serving households: 0.63%<\/li><li><strong>Private residential fixed investment: 0.74%<\/strong><\/li><li>Non-durable goods &#8211; Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption &amp; other non-durables : 0.94%<\/li><li>Imports: 2.32%<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I already knew that <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/05\/10\/housing-market-review-april-2020\/\">the residential housing market was exceptionally strong going into mid-March<\/a> when much of the U.S. went into lockdowns. Still, I was quite surprised to see just how vigorously the housing sector was investing into the economy. GDP from residential fixed investment increased 7.0% year-over-year and 21.0% from Q4 2019. The graph below of real private residential fixed investment shows how this category rebounded from a shallow trough a year ago to hit a new post- financial crisis high, a 13-year high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/200515_Residential-Fixed-Investment.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/200515_Residential-Fixed-Investment.png\" alt=\"Residential fixed investment in Q1 2020 hit a new high post financial crisis.\" class=\"wp-image-53019\"\/><\/a><figcaption>Residential fixed investment in Q1 2020 hit a new high post financial crisis.<br><strong>Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Real Private Residential Fixed Investment [PRFIC1], <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/PRFIC1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, May 14, 2020.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p>Unfortunately, residential construction will likely become a major drag on GDP for Q2 based on recent housing start and employment data. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/archives\/empsit_04032020.htm\" target=\"_blank\">March, 2020 unemployment<\/a> in the construction industry increased to 6.9% from the 5.2% in March, 2019. The sector lost 29,000 jobs from February, 2020, almost all of it in nonresidential building and heavy and civil engineering construction (21,000 total loss).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The situation changed dramatically in April.  From <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bls.gov\/news.release\/archives\/empsit_05082020.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">the April jobs report<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>&#8220;Construction employment fell by 975,000 in April, with much of the loss in specialty trade contractors (-691,000). Job losses also occurred in construction of buildings (-206,000).&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>This plunge took construction employment down to a 4-year low. Unemployment surged to 16.6%, a significant increase from the 4.7% in April, 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>These job losses were immediately proceeded by a collapse in housing starts back to July, 2019 levels. The surge in housing starts from the previous 3 months was reversed in a flash. Just like the last peak of the housing industry from 2005 to 2006, employment topped out after housing starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/200515_Residential-Construction-Employment-vs-Housing-Starts.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1168\" height=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/200515_Residential-Construction-Employment-vs-Housing-Starts.png\" alt=\"Residential construction employment plunged a month after the plunge in housing starts, peaking with a lag like the last recession.\" class=\"wp-image-53024\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/200515_Residential-Construction-Employment-vs-Housing-Starts.png 1168w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/200515_Residential-Construction-Employment-vs-Housing-Starts-768x296.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1168px) 100vw, 1168px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>Residential construction employment plunged a month after the plunge in housing starts, peaking with a lag like the last recession.<br><strong>Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Residential Building [CES2023610001], <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/CES2023610001\" target=\"_blank\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a> and U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Housing Starts: Total: New Privately Owned Housing Units Started [HOUST], <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/HOUST\" target=\"_blank\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, May 16, 2020.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>The rapid loss of housing starts and construction employment suggest in turn an on-going rapid loss in economic activity in the housing market. This will be reflected in the housing numbers for April as well as the Q2 GDP numbers. In the meantime, public home builders have reported a lot of optimism surrounding a rush to rationalize their businesses. The data tell me not to expect much more upside in coming weeks and months for the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund (ITB).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/200515_ITB-iShares-Dow-Jones-US-Home-Construction-Index-Fund.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"803\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/200515_ITB-iShares-Dow-Jones-US-Home-Construction-Index-Fund.png\" alt=\"The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund (ITB) gained 2.5% on Friday but is likely in the process of peaking under or around its 200-day moving average (DMA).\" class=\"wp-image-53026\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/200515_ITB-iShares-Dow-Jones-US-Home-Construction-Index-Fund.png 1200w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/05\/200515_ITB-iShares-Dow-Jones-US-Home-Construction-Index-Fund-768x514.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund (ITB) gained 2.5% on Friday but is likely in the process of peaking under or around its 200-day moving average (DMA).<br><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/JruZNFea\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">TradingView.com<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2020 (advanced estimate) plunged by 4.8% as the coronavirus pandemic put the economy on lockdown. The following categories made positive contributions to GDP in ascending order of their contribution to the percentage change: Housing and utilities: .08% Change in farm inventories: 0.10% Government consumption expenditures &#8230; <a title=\"Latest Housing Starts, Construction Employment Undermine Strong Q1 GDP\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/05\/16\/housing-starts-construction-employment-undermine-strong-q1-gdp\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59,35],"tags":[1200,247,95,1410,1205,1206,1061,197],"class_list":["post-53017","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-housing","tag-construction","tag-gdp","tag-housing-market","tag-housing-starts","tag-ishares-dow-jones-us-home-construction-index-fund","tag-itb","tag-private-residential-fixed-investment","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Latest Housing Starts, Construction Employment Undermine Strong Q1 GDP - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/05\/16\/housing-starts-construction-employment-undermine-strong-q1-gdp\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Latest Housing Starts, Construction Employment Undermine Strong Q1 GDP - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2020 (advanced estimate) plunged by 4.8% as the coronavirus pandemic put the economy on lockdown. 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The following categories made positive contributions to GDP in ascending order of their contribution to the percentage change: Housing and utilities: .08% Change in farm inventories: 0.10% Government consumption expenditures ... 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