{"id":5242,"date":"2011-06-01T19:42:25","date_gmt":"2011-06-01T23:42:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=5242"},"modified":"2011-06-02T15:56:53","modified_gmt":"2011-06-02T19:56:53","slug":"summer-positive-gains","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/06\/01\/summer-positive-gains\/","title":{"rendered":"Summer&#8217;s Positive Gains Can Come With High Risks"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I published on Seeking Alpha. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/272864-summer-s-positive-gains-can-come-with-high-risks\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Now that May, 2011 has closed down 1.4%, it seems like a good time to take yet another perspective on May&#8217;s legendary selling. This time I wondered whether May&#8217;s performance says anything about trading for the summer. I was quite surprised to discover that <strong>the summer tends to be a profitable time to trade<\/strong>, although it comes with high risks.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;I graphed three charts of performance (charts posted below but explained in more detail in <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/272864-summer-s-positive-gains-can-come-with-high-risks\">the Seeking Alpha article<\/a>).<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>The chart of the S&#038;P 500 in May versus the summer, June to August demonstrates the following:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The summer produces positive returns 60.7% of the time.<\/li>\n<li>After May produces negative returns, the summer produces positive returns 54% of the time.<\/li>\n<li>After May produces positive returns, the summer produces positive returns 66% of the time.\n<\/ul>\n<p><em><strong>Click for larger view:<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_5253\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5253\" style=\"width: 290px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/110531_SP500-MayVsSummer.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/110531_SP500-MayVsSummer-300x218.jpg\" alt=\"The summer tends to produce positive returns on the S&amp;P 500\" title=\"The summer tends to produce positive returns on the S&amp;P 500\" width=\"300\" height=\"218\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-5253\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/110531_SP500-MayVsSummer-300x218.jpg 300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/110531_SP500-MayVsSummer.jpg 708w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-5253\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The summer tends to produce positive returns on the S&P 500<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>I next transformed the above chart into a bubble chart where the width of the bubble represents the S&#038;P 500&#8217;s performance over the entire year&#8230;{snip}&#8230;The white bubbles represent negative annual performance.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Click for larger view:<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_5256\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5256\" style=\"width: 290px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/110531_SP500-MayVsSummer-Bubble.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/110531_SP500-MayVsSummer-Bubble-300x217.jpg\" alt=\"Positive annual performance goes hand-in-hand with positive summers\" title=\"Positive annual performance goes hand-in-hand with positive summers\" width=\"300\" height=\"217\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-5256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/110531_SP500-MayVsSummer-Bubble-300x217.jpg 300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/110531_SP500-MayVsSummer-Bubble.jpg 705w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-5256\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Positive annual performance goes hand-in-hand with positive summers<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}&#8230;while the median summer return since 1950 has been 1.6%, the past 21 years have been heavily skewed toward large down summers&#8230;Note that eleven of these twenty-one years actually produced positive returns&#8230;{snip}<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Click for larger view:<\/strong><\/em><br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_5255\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-5255\" style=\"width: 290px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/110531_SP500-SummerPerformance.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/110531_SP500-SummerPerformance-300x214.jpg\" alt=\"The pattern of summer performance has changed over the decades\" title=\"The pattern of summer performance has changed over the decades\" width=\"300\" height=\"214\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-5255\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/110531_SP500-SummerPerformance-300x214.jpg 300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/05\/110531_SP500-SummerPerformance.jpg 700w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-5255\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The pattern of summer performance has changed over the decades<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>For more &#8220;fun with numbers&#8221; see my <a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/070924_LaborDayAnalysisUpdate.htm\">last analysis of the post Labor Day trade<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/071231_SP500FirstDayOfYear.htm\">trading at the beginning of the year<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I published on Seeking Alpha. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/272864-summer-s-positive-gains-can-come-with-high-risks\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long SSO puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I published on Seeking Alpha. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Now that May, 2011 has closed down 1.4%, it seems like a good time to take yet another perspective on May&#8217;s legendary selling. This time I wondered whether May&#8217;s performance says anything about trading for &#8230; <a title=\"Summer&#8217;s Positive Gains Can Come With High Risks\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/06\/01\/summer-positive-gains\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,62],"tags":[583,1597],"class_list":["post-5242","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-sell-in-may","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Summer&#039;s Positive Gains Can Come With High Risks - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/06\/01\/summer-positive-gains\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Summer&#039;s Positive Gains Can Come With High Risks - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I published on Seeking Alpha. 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