{"id":52177,"date":"2020-03-21T13:41:05","date_gmt":"2020-03-21T20:41:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=52177"},"modified":"2022-12-17T13:54:46","modified_gmt":"2022-12-17T21:54:46","slug":"quick-hopeful-case-for-new-bitcoin-bottom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/03\/21\/quick-hopeful-case-for-new-bitcoin-bottom\/","title":{"rendered":"The Quick (and Hopeful) Case for A New Bitcoin Bottom"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter aligncenter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">So much for promise of <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/BItcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#BItcoin<\/a> providing buffer against turmoil &amp; crises in financial markets! Still, I am treating plunge as an irresistible buying opp. Next point is last year&#39;s low. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24BTC.X&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">$BTC.X<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/BTCUSD?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#BTCUSD<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/crypto?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#crypto<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EV2uPn9FY6\">pic.twitter.com\/EV2uPn9FY6<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Dr. Duru (@DrDuru) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\/status\/1238114621199876097?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 12, 2020<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>My first warning on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) came when Bitcoin failed to push through overhead resistance from October&#8217;s brief and failed run-up (see the horizontal line above) <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/16\/bitcoin-trading-note-for-breakouts-10k-halving\/\">despite the bullish case being made at the time about the breakout<\/a>. The most convincing warning came when <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/03\/06\/the-time-bitcoin-failed-to-work\/\">the cryptocurrency sold off with the stock market in late February<\/a>. That behavior immediately put Bitcoin in the basket of assets being liquidated by investors and traders scrambling to get into cash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p>At the time of the above tweet, I was in the middle of using the sell-off to rebuild a position in Bitcoin. I bought another tranche when Bitcoin briefly broke through the bottom of the downtrend channel (drawn from the intraday lows and highs in the downtrend since the June, 2019 high to highlight January&#8217;s breakout and March&#8217;s breakdown). I am saving one last tranche in case Bitcoin retests last year&#8217;s low&#8230;which I now consider a smaller possibility than a week and a half ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"669\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200321_BTCUSD.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) has liquidated alongside financial markets...until this past week.\" class=\"wp-image-52178\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200321_BTCUSD.png 1000w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200321_BTCUSD-768x514.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption>Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) has liquidated alongside financial markets&#8230;until this past week.<br><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/IGZgbHug\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"TradingView.com (opens in a new tab)\">TradingView.com<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>A hopeful case for a sustainable bottom in Bitcoin is last week&#8217;s rally in the face of continued liquidation in financial markets. At the time of writing , the bullish divergence for Bitcoin features BTC\/USD up about 16% for the week while the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) suffered a punishing 15.0% loss and 3-year low for the week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Per my trading methods, the more solid case for a bottom in Bitcoin is the sudden burst of life in the Google Trends Momentum Check (GTMC). The GTMC continues to serve as a tradeable guide to interpreting extreme ups and downs of Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) (for an intro see &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/06\/30\/how-to-use-google-trend-momentum-check-with-bitcoin-prices\/\">How to Use the Google Trend Momentum Check (GTMC) With Bitcoin Prices<\/a>&#8220;. On March 13th, in the immediate wake of Bitcoin&#8217;s massive 39.1% drawdown, searches for Bitcoin spiked higher. Per the GTMC, a significant increase in the Google Search index in combination with an extreme move in the underlying target marks an imminent end to the extreme move. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2018\" height=\"1653\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200321_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin.png\" alt=\"Google Trends for Bitcoin finally woke up in the wake of Bitcoin's plunge. The Google search index almost reached levels last seen during last June's topping action.\" class=\"wp-image-52179\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200321_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin.png 2018w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200321_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin-768x629.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200321_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin-1536x1258.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2018px) 100vw, 2018px\" \/><figcaption>Google Trends for Bitcoin finally woke up in the wake of Bitcoin&#8217;s plunge. The Google search index almost reached levels last seen during last June&#8217;s topping action.<br><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/trends.google.com\/trends\/explore?q=bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Google Trends (opens in a new tab)\">Google Trends<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>An added twist to the recent surge in interest is the change in the mix of countries in the top 5. This change presumably represents some broadening of the base of Bitcoin&#8217;s biggest sources of support. Over the last 12 months, the top 5 countries in Bitcoin searches were Nigeria, Austria, South Africa, Switzerland, and Ghana (see the above graphic). In the past 30 days, that mix shifted. While Nigeria and Austria still lead, Switzerland moved into the #3 position and new contenders Slovenia and Germany popped into the top 5. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"2065\" height=\"1667\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200321_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin-30Days.png\" alt=\"Over the past 30 days, the mix of countries in the top 5 of Google searches on Bitcoin sharply shifted.\" class=\"wp-image-52180\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200321_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin-30Days.png 2065w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200321_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin-30Days-768x620.png 768w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200321_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin-30Days-1536x1240.png 1536w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200321_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin-30Days-2048x1653.png 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2065px) 100vw, 2065px\" \/><figcaption>Over the past 30 days, the mix of countries in the top 5 of Google searches on Bitcoin sharply shifted.<br><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/trends.google.com\/trends\/explore?date=today%201-m&amp;q=bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Google Trends (opens in a new tab)\">Google Trends<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>I have not yet studied the inferred impact of changing country mixes in the GTMC, but the latest developments provide a potential starting point for study. In the meantime, I am looking for the GTMC to at least stay around current levels. If the GTMC fades too soon, I expect Bitcoin to fade with it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long BTC\/USD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My first warning on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) came when Bitcoin failed to push through overhead resistance from October&#8217;s brief and failed run-up (see the horizontal line above) despite the bullish case being made at the time about the breakout. The most convincing warning came when the cryptocurrency sold off with the stock market in late February. &#8230; <a title=\"The Quick (and Hopeful) Case for A New Bitcoin Bottom\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/03\/21\/quick-hopeful-case-for-new-bitcoin-bottom\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":52178,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1974,1210],"tags":[602,1958,1164,2222,2223],"class_list":["post-52177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency-forex","category-trading-model","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc-usd","tag-google-trends","tag-google-trends-momentum-check","tag-gtmc"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Quick (and Hopeful) Case for A New Bitcoin Bottom - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/03\/21\/quick-hopeful-case-for-new-bitcoin-bottom\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Quick (and Hopeful) Case for A New Bitcoin Bottom - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"My first warning on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) came when Bitcoin failed to push through overhead resistance from October&#8217;s brief and failed run-up (see the horizontal line above) despite the bullish case being made at the time about the breakout. 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The most convincing warning came when the cryptocurrency sold off with the stock market in late February. ... 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