{"id":51903,"date":"2020-03-07T15:44:58","date_gmt":"2020-03-07T23:44:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=51903"},"modified":"2020-03-07T15:45:00","modified_gmt":"2020-03-07T23:45:00","slug":"fresh-cracks-in-housing-related-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/03\/07\/fresh-cracks-in-housing-related-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"The Fresh Cracks In Housing-Related Stocks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>First the good news. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) lost 3.2% on Friday but bounced sharply from the lows of the day. That bounce preserved support at the uptrending 200-day moving average (DMA) and set the stage for a potential higher low that generates a lasting bottom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200306_ITB.png\" alt=\"The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) lost 3.2% after a gap down and rebound from intraday lows. The move also confirmed a fresh 50DMA breakdown.\" class=\"wp-image-51904\"\/><figcaption>The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) lost 3.2% after a gap down and rebound from intraday lows. The move also confirmed a fresh 50DMA breakdown.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>While, the S&amp;P 500 (SPY) &#8220;only&#8221; lost 1.7% on Friday, ITB still maintains a performance advantage for the year. ITB is exactly flat year-to-date, and the S&amp;P 500 is down 8.0%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now for the sets of bad news. There are a series of housing and construction stocks that are raising alarm bells for me given they hit new lows for this selling cycle. Here is the list with year-to-date performances and any important technical notes:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Beazer Homes (BZH): -14.6%, second 200DMA breakdown<\/li><li>Five Point Holdings (FPH): +3.3%, 200DMA breakdown<\/li><li>KB Home (KBH): -7.0%, closed on 200DMA support<\/li><li>M\/I Homes (MHO): -6.8%, 2nd 200DMA breakdown<\/li><li>Owens Corning (OC): -21.9%, 9-month low<\/li><li>Realogy Holdings Corp (RLGY): -20.8%, 200DMA breakdown<\/li><li>Redfin (RDFN): +24.9%, bounced off 50DMA support after finishing a reversal of post-eanrings gains<\/li><li>Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC): -0.7%, confirmed 200DMA breakdown<\/li><li>U.S. Concrete (USCR): -40.8%, 5 1\/2 year low<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Each company and stock has its own story, but their collective under-performance and breakdowns could be signs of more weakness to come for the industry. A growing list of stocks in the industry hitting new lows for this cycle will be a key tell. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Beazer Homes<\/strong> (BZH) is a speculative home builder that periodically becomes fashionable with traders. BZH hit a near 2-year high in January before a post-earnings collapse signaled the end of the run for BZH. I expect BZH to eventually return to its lows of 2019, another 25% or so lower.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Five Point Holdings<\/strong> (FPH) is particularly disappointing. I am a long-term investor in this stock and recently wrote about its <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/01\/20\/animal-spirits-rediscover-housing-related-stocks\/\">stellar rebound<\/a>. FPH has almost reversed its complete resurgence that started in January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>M\/I Homes<\/strong> (MHO) produced <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/15\/m-i-homes-earnings-q4-2019\/\">an uninspiring earnings report<\/a> that left me uninterested in adding it to the buy list for <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/04\/20\/how-to-trade-seasonal-patterns-for-home-builder-stocks\/\">the seasonal trade<\/a>. A second 200DMA breakdown leaves the stock with a confirmed double-top as well as a complete reversal of its October breakout &#8211; a very bearish combination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Owens Corning<\/strong> (OC) is a materials company that caught my attention again last June when an activist investor started making noise. I rode the subsequent rally for most of the year. I have been looking for a new entry ever since. The current breakdown in the stock is bearish, but I cannot resist these cheap valuations for long: 1.3 price\/book, 0.9 price\/sales, 10.9 forward P\/E (from Yahoo Finance). Of course these ratios are all at risk if OC&#8217;s financial results plunge along with the stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Redfin<\/strong> (RDFN) produced <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/17\/redfin-2020-its-on-like-donkey-kong\/\">strong earnings and a great narrative<\/a>. I finally bought into the stock in this pullback. RDFN had an impressive breakout and run-up going into this selling cycle. I wanted to buy into RDFN as a play for the year. I am now worried that economic risks may cut this story short, thus turning my position into a trade instead of an investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Taylor Morrison Home Corporation<\/strong> (TMHC) acquired William Lyon Homes in November. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/11\/10\/taylor-morrison-makes-a-poorly-timed-acquisition-of-william-lyon\/\">I did not like the acquisition then<\/a>, and I still do not. I think the company is in a weakened financial position to ride out whatever economic turbulence may be ahead. The second and confirmed 200DMA breakdown back to post-acquisition lows signals volumes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong> U.S. Concrete<\/strong> (USCR) is having one of those rough years. USCR started the year struggling to stabilize from significant post-earnings weakness. The latest market sell-off swiftly shaved another 30% or so off the stock. Given my residual bullishness in the company thanks to <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?s=sandbrook\">my interviews with retiring CEO Bill Sandbrook<\/a>, I am looking at this deep sell-off as a buying opportunity. I am continuing to accumulate stock even as the company&#8217;s plunge signals trouble ahead for the construction industry in general.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>KB Home<\/strong> (KBH)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>KB Home (KBH) is a stock on my shopping list for <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/04\/20\/how-to-trade-seasonal-patterns-for-home-builder-stocks\/\">the seasonal trade for home builders<\/a>. I bought call options on the first leg down and sold them into the rally to 50DMA resistance. I accumulated call options again on this second leg down. If KBH survives this second test of 200DMA support, I expect the stock to break out from 50DMA resistance. I bought April expiration with that expectation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200306_KBH.png\" alt=\"KB Home (KBH) confirmed 50DMA resistance with a quick (re)collapse to 200DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-51905\"\/><figcaption>KB Home (KBH) confirmed 50DMA resistance with a quick (re)collapse to 200DMA support.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Realogy<\/strong> (RLGY)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Realogy Holdings Corp (RLGY) is a company and stock <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/25\/realogy-and-amazon-partner-but-does-it-matter\/\">I wrote skeptically about last year<\/a>.  From there, the stock soon rallied on earnings only to plunge on the loss of an account with USAA. After hitting a fresh all-time low, the stock put on a jetpack. The near 6-month run from $4.50 to over $13 truly astounded me. I suspect some kind of short squeeze was at work. According to Yahoo Finance, RLGY still has 37.6% of its float sold short. The 30.2M shares short in February is down from January&#8217;s 35.0M. Since I cannot imagine anything fundamentally changed with the business of this housing services company (mainly realty), I think it will be back to all-time lows in due time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/200306_RLGY.png\" alt=\"Realogy (RLGY) lost 8.1% and broke down below 200DMA support for a near 5-month low.\" class=\"wp-image-51907\"\/><figcaption>Realogy (RLGY) lost 8.1% and broke down below 200DMA support for a near 5-month low.<br><strong>Source for charts: FreeStockCharts<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long KBH calls, long USCR, long ITB call options and call spread, long FPH<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>First the good news. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) lost 3.2% on Friday but bounced sharply from the lows of the day. That bounce preserved support at the uptrending 200-day moving average (DMA) and set the stage for a potential higher low that generates a lasting bottom. While, the &#8230; <a title=\"The Fresh Cracks In Housing-Related Stocks\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/03\/07\/fresh-cracks-in-housing-related-stocks\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,35,512,511,62],"tags":[1052,543,2316,1948,2015,95,1206,146,147,2315,2317,2057,2237,2151,2183,1240,1238,1900,1772],"class_list":["post-51903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakdown","category-housing","category-resistance","category-support","category-technical-analysis","tag-beazer-homes-usa-inc","tag-bzh","tag-five-point-holdings","tag-fph","tag-home-builders","tag-housing-market","tag-itb","tag-kb-home","tag-kbh","tag-oc","tag-owens-corning","tag-rdfn","tag-realogy-holdings","tag-redfin","tag-rlgy","tag-taylor-morrison-home-corporation","tag-tmhc","tag-u-s-concrete","tag-uscr"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Fresh Cracks In Housing-Related Stocks - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/03\/07\/fresh-cracks-in-housing-related-stocks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Fresh Cracks In Housing-Related Stocks - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"First the good news. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) lost 3.2% on Friday but bounced sharply from the lows of the day. That bounce preserved support at the uptrending 200-day moving average (DMA) and set the stage for a potential higher low that generates a lasting bottom. While, the ... 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The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction Index Fund ETF (ITB) lost 3.2% on Friday but bounced sharply from the lows of the day. That bounce preserved support at the uptrending 200-day moving average (DMA) and set the stage for a potential higher low that generates a lasting bottom. While, the ... 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The move also confirmed a fresh 50DMA breakdown."},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/03\/07\/fresh-cracks-in-housing-related-stocks\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"The Fresh Cracks In Housing-Related Stocks"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#website","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/","name":"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","description":"Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":["Person","Organization"],"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0","name":"Dr. Duru","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","width":900,"height":100,"caption":"Dr. Duru"},"logo":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/onetwentytwo","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/","https:\/\/x.com\/drduru"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51903","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51903"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51903\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51910,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51903\/revisions\/51910"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51903"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51903"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51903"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}