{"id":51651,"date":"2020-02-24T22:20:59","date_gmt":"2020-02-25T06:20:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=51651"},"modified":"2020-03-15T08:58:00","modified_gmt":"2020-03-15T15:58:00","slug":"t2108-update-200224","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/24\/t2108-update-200224\/","title":{"rendered":"Synchronized 50DMA Breakdowns for the Stock Market &#8211; Above the 40 (February 24, 2020)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>AT40<\/strong> = 34.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) <br><strong>AT200<\/strong> = 49.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs <br><strong>VIX<\/strong> = 25.0<br><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Sellers put on another rare performance: major indices across the board broke down below their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs). Following <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/23\/t2108-update-200221\/\">Friday&#8217;s bearish performance<\/a>, I was expecting follow-on weakness. I was NOT expecting broad-based, major breakdowns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) once again reversed all its gains for the year. The major index broke down below its 50DMA on a 3.4% loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200224_SP500.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) lost 3.4% on a 50DMA breakdown that erased gains for the year.\" class=\"wp-image-51660\"\/><figcaption>The S&#038;P 500 (SPY) lost 3.4% on a 50DMA breakdown that erased gains for the year.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The NASDAQ (COMPQX) broke down below its 50DMA on a 3.7% loss. The tech-laden index is hanging on to a 2.8% year-to-date gain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200224_NASDAQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ (COMPQX) lost 3.7% on a 50DMA breakdown.\" class=\"wp-image-51663\"\/><figcaption>The NASDAQ (COMPQX) lost 3.7% on a 50DMA breakdown.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p> The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF (IWM) broke down below its 50DMA for a 3.0% loss. The index of small cap stocks is down 2.2% year-to-date.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200224_IWM.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF (IWM) lost 3.0% on a fresh 50DMA breakdown.\" class=\"wp-image-51659\"\/><figcaption>The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF (IWM) lost 3.0% on a fresh 50DMA breakdown.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>In late January, I noted <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/01\/27\/financials-struggle-at-all-time-highs\/\">the struggles of the SPDRS Select Sector Financial ETF (XLF) financials at its all-time high<\/a> as part of my bearish thesis. XLF confirmed a topping pattern with its 50DMA breakdown on a 3.3% loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200224_XLF.png\" alt=\"The SPDRS Select Sector Financial ETF (XLF) lost 3.3% on a fresh 50DMA breakdown on a near 3-month low.\" class=\"wp-image-51658\"\/><figcaption>The SPDRS Select Sector Financial ETF (XLF) lost 3.3% on a fresh 50DMA breakdown on a near 3-month low.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>On and on it goes. These major indices are in bearish short-term patterns based on synchronized 50DMA breakdowns. This display is quite awesome to behold. My favorite technical indicator, <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT40 (T2108)<\/a>, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), reflected the broad-based selling. AT40 fell from 48.9% to 34.3%, AT40&#8217;s lowest level since October 8, 2019. This plunge released pent-up selling pressure from weeks of bearish divergences with the S&amp;P 500. It is also a 5-week delayed confirmation of the bearish implications of last month&#8217;s failure at the overbought threshold (70%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200224_T2108.png\" alt=\"AT40 (T2108) fell from 49% to 34% to close at a 4 1\/2 month low.\" class=\"wp-image-51656\"\/><figcaption>AT40 (T2108) fell from 49% to 34% to close at a 4 1\/2 month low.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Recall that in a bullish market, the low 30s are &#8220;close enough&#8221; to oversold. However, I am staying bearish until 1) oversold trading conditions (AT40 below 20%), or 2) a confirmed 50DMA breakout on the S&amp;P 500&#8230;.whichever comes first. Note that of the last 5 sell-off cycles in the past 13 months, just two pullbacks stopped with AT40 in the low 30s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AT40 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, made its first lower low since last summer. This longer-term indicator confirms that the market should be topped out for a while.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200224_T2107.png\" alt=\"AT200 (T2107) dropped from 57% to 49% to a 4-month low.\" class=\"wp-image-51657\"\/><figcaption>AT200 (T2107) dropped from 57% to 49% to a 4-month low.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Volatility<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>For <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/23\/t2108-update-200221\/\">my last Above the 40 post<\/a>, I noted the following: &#8220;the volatility index (VIX) avoided a retest of the 12 level. The next upward cycle kicked off on Thursday&#8217;s selling&#8230;I am assuming that the &#8220;pent-up&#8221; selling pressure in the market will not end until the VIX gets a close above 20. Last week&#8217;s VIX rally may have set such a move in motion with the 13.5 level serving as a higher low.&#8221; The VIX is already well above the elevated level of 20. The 14-month high rings the bell on fear and loathing in the stock market. Even the standard fare of volatility fading barely made a dent on the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200224_VIX.png\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) soared 46.6% to close at 25 and a near 14-month high.\" class=\"wp-image-51655\"\/><figcaption>The volatility index (VIX) soared 46.6% to close at 25 and a near 14-month high.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Short-Term Trading Call<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>As I mentioned in <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/23\/t2108-update-200221\/\">my last Above the 40 post<\/a>, I came into this week without puts on the major indices and felt overly exposed. The synchronized 50DMA breakdowns confirmed I was overly exposed, but I also left a lot of money on the table. Implied volatilities spiked so much at the open that ALL my remaining puts and put spreads (on individual stocks) closed out at my target prices. I have NEVER experienced such a clean sweep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After I collected myself, I executed on my strategy to aggressively go after SPY puts below my bear\/bull line. I bought an SPY put spread expiring next week and a single SPY put expiring Friday. THAT put hit my target price, and I bought another on the market&#8217;s only bounce for the day. I also bought QQQ puts expiring next week. I will be looking to reload on more put options on the next market rally. I prefer a rally because the VIX at current levels makes options very expensive and subject to price implosions. As long as the VIX remains elevated I will prefer spread plays that sell volatility back to the market. Moreover, the VIX is unstable at these levels and cannot sustain itself on fear for long. While more churn lies ahead, the VIX could be at or near its highs for this cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I am assuming the next market bounce will end at or around the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s 50DMA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Chart Reviews &#8211; Below the 50DMA<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Apple<\/strong> (AAPL)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I remain conflicted on Apple (AAPL). The stock now has a clear topping pattern confirmed by a 50DMA breakdown, but my weekly call strategy continues to beckon. After my clean sweep of put options, I immediately thought to buy an AAPL call option. I took profits as soon as AAPL cracked $300 again. Toward the close I bought a calendar call spread at the $310 strike. This should be my fill of bullish plays while my short-term trading call sits at bearish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It goes without saying that AAPL is one of the most important 50DMA breakdowns in the stock market. Will passive and automatic money pour right back in on schedule?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200204_AAPL.png\" alt=\"Apple (AAPL) confirmed a topping pattern with a 50DMA breakdown and a 4.8% loss.\" class=\"wp-image-51654\"\/><figcaption>Apple (AAPL) confirmed a topping pattern with a 50DMA breakdown and a 4.8% loss.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Peloton Interactive<\/strong> (PTON)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I just wrote about how the bearish breakdown in Peloton Interactive (PTON) opened up <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/22\/peloton-extremes-bearish-breakdown-begins-new-trading-opportunity\/\">the next trading opportunity in the stock<\/a>. Insiders indeed dumped stock onto the market. High-volume selling took PTON down to $24.50 but buyers stepped in right from there despite the breakdowns occurring across the stock market. Given the extreme short interest in PTON, I have to assume much of this buying was driven by shorts deciding this was as good as it gets. I switched up my strategy for now and bought March $25 put options near the highs of the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200224_PTON.png\" alt=\"Peloton Interactive (PTON) managed to gain 4.0% as buyers stepped in to soak up extra liquidity\" class=\"wp-image-51661\"\/><figcaption>Peloton Interactive (PTON) managed to gain 4.0% as buyers stepped in to soak up extra liquidity<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Chart Reviews &#8211; Above the 50DMA<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>SPDR Gold Trust<\/strong> (GLD)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I thought I did well taking profits on my last round of call options on SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) during last week&#8217;s breakout above $150. At least I continue to hold my long-term GLD shares&#8230;and will continue to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200224_GLD.png\" alt=\"SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) gained 0.9% after a fade from a gap open. GLD closed at a near 7-year high.\" class=\"wp-image-51653\"\/><figcaption>SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) gained 0.9% after a fade from a gap open. GLD closed at a near 7-year high.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212; &#8211; &#8212;<br>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<center><br>\n<strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/feedburner.google.com\/fb\/a\/mailverify?uri=onetwentytwo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">email<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><br>\n<\/center>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 40&#8221; uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) to assess the technical health of the stock market and to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Abbreviated as AT40, Above the 40 is an alternative label for &#8220;T2108&#8221; which was created by <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worden.com\/CURRENTAFPROMO.aspx?AFCODE=866\" target=\"_blank\">Worden<\/a>. Learn more about T2108 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or T2107, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Active AT40 (T2108) periods<\/strong>: Day #274 over 20%, Day #113 over 30% (overperiod), Day #11 under 40% (underperiod ending 14 days over 40%), Day #2 under 50%, Day #21 under 60%, Day #25 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<center><br>\n<strong>Daily AT40 (T2108)<\/strong><br>\n<figure><a href=\"https:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"T2108 (DAILY)\" src=\"https:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\"><\/a><\/figure><p><\/p>\n<p>Black line: AT40 (T2108) (% measured on the right)<br>\nRed line: Overbought threshold (70%); Blue line: Oversold threshold (20%)<br>\n<\/p><\/center>\n\n\n\n<center><br>\n<strong>Weekly AT40 (T2108)<\/strong><br>\n<figure><a href=\"https:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly_s.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Weekly T2108\" src=\"https:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly_s.png\" alt=\"Weekly T2108\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\"><\/a><\/figure><br>\n*<strong>All charts created using <\/strong><strong>FreeStockCharts<\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center>\n\n\n\n<p>The T2108 charts above are my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given AT40 post. For my latest AT40 post <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/tag\/t2108\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure<\/strong>: long VIXY calls, long GLD, long SPY put spread, long QQQ put, long PTON puts<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: FreeStockCharts stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. TradingView.com charts for currencies use Tokyo time as the start of the forex trading day. FreeStockCharts currency charts are based on Eastern U.S. time to define the trading day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AT40 = 34.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 49.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 25.0Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Sellers put on another rare performance: major indices across the board broke down below their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs). Following &#8230; <a title=\"Synchronized 50DMA Breakdowns for the Stock Market &#8211; Above the 40 (February 24, 2020)\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/24\/t2108-update-200224\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,199,548,219,338,62],"tags":[250,1820,1819,1955,200,909,413,2282,65,362,225,226,303,311],"class_list":["post-51651","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakdown","category-commodities","category-financials","category-high-tech","category-retail","category-technical-analysis","tag-aapl","tag-at200","tag-at40","tag-compqx","tag-gld","tag-iwm","tag-nasdaq","tag-pton","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-t2107","tag-t2108","tag-vix","tag-xlf"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Synchronized 50DMA Breakdowns for the Stock Market - Above the 40 (February 24, 2020) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/24\/t2108-update-200224\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Synchronized 50DMA Breakdowns for the Stock Market - Above the 40 (February 24, 2020) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"AT40 = 34.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 49.4% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 25.0Short-term Trading Call: bearish Stock Market Commentary Sellers put on another rare performance: major indices across the board broke down below their respective 50-day moving averages (DMAs). 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