{"id":51573,"date":"2020-02-16T17:14:25","date_gmt":"2020-02-17T01:14:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=51573"},"modified":"2020-02-16T17:15:04","modified_gmt":"2020-02-17T01:15:04","slug":"bitcoin-trading-note-for-breakouts-10k-halving","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/16\/bitcoin-trading-note-for-breakouts-10k-halving\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin: A Trading Note for Breakouts, 10K and the Halving"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Price Action<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) is on more media radars after breaking out above $10,000 last week. Last month, Bitcoin broke out from a downtrend in place since the last big run-up peaked in June, 2019. The $10K breakout ran into a wall from resistance formed by the high when Bitcoin suddenly spiked straight up October 25-26th last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"706\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_BTCUSD.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke out from a downtrend in late January but hit a wall at upper resistance last week.\" class=\"wp-image-51574\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_BTCUSD.png 1000w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_BTCUSD-768x542.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption>Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke out from a downtrend in late January but hit a wall at upper resistance last week.<br>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/cYKVBScA\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"TradingView.com (opens in a new tab)\">TradingView.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Explanations<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the round number of $10K has psychological importance, explanations must of course accompany the rally. Last week on CNBC&#8217;s Fast Money, Brian Kelly dutifully offered three drivers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The Bitcoin &#8220;halving&#8221; coming in May<\/li><li>Institutional money flows <\/li><li>9-10% address growth over the past 30 days<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed-twitter aligncenter wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Your Chart of the Week has arrived, and we know you&#39;re going to love this one. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BKBrianKelly?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@BKBrianKelly<\/a> breaks down what he&#39;s watching. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/XSaufhbxqW\">pic.twitter.com\/XSaufhbxqW<\/a><\/p>&mdash; CNBC&#39;s Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CNBCFastMoney\/status\/1228445617992630273?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">February 14, 2020<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Institutional money flows are always an easy and ready explanation given institutions are constantly moving money into assets. Yet, I have never heard the <em><strong>withdrawal<\/strong><\/em> of institutional money used as a way to explain downtrends, especially not the one that dominated trading in the second half of 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Address growth is an interesting potential driver, but, again, the relationship is difficult to make. Like institutional money flows, address growth is on-going in Bitcoin whether the price is going up or down. Extreme address growth was clearly associated with the bubble-like run-up to Bitcoin&#8217;s all-time high. <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"The chart below posted by bitcoinist.com (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinist.com\/bitcoin-btc-new-addresses-add-up-to-124m-since-2017\/\" target=\"_blank\">The chart below posted by bitcoinist.com<\/a> shows the persistent increase in addresses (red line). Note well that address growth never went negative in any time period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"980\" height=\"565\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_BitcoinAddressgrowth.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin address growth is persistent although the rate of growth is nowhere close to the peaks from the last bubble.\" class=\"wp-image-51577\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_BitcoinAddressgrowth.png 980w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_BitcoinAddressgrowth-768x443.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 980px) 100vw, 980px\" \/><figcaption>Bitcoin address growth is persistent although the rate of growth is nowhere close to the peaks from the last bubble.<br><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/bitcoinist.com\/bitcoin-btc-new-addresses-add-up-to-124m-since-2017\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Bitcoinist.com (opens in a new tab)\">Bitcoinist.com<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The halving is the most interesting explanation to me &#8211; not because it is more convincing but because it contains explosive contradictions. The resolution of the contrary pricing forces should be quite telling for Bitcoin&#8217;s short-term trading direction. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin has an automatic brake against inflation that cuts the rate of growth in Bitcoin in half every four years. The next halving is coming in May. Theoretically, this forced scarcity should drive up the price of Bitcoin given the same demand for the coins. However, Bitcoin costs a lot of money to mine. <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Tradeblock estimates (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/tradeblock.com\/blog\/analyzing-bitcoin-mining-profitability-following-the-halving-and-its-indication-for-price\" target=\"_blank\">Tradeblock estimates<\/a> the cost of mining a single bitcoin could soar from today&#8217;s profitable $6,851 to $12,000-15,000 after the halving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The prospect of higher mining costs sets up the tension. Optimistic miners anticipating that higher costs will result in higher selling prices could build up inventory in anticipation of those higher prices. This kind of hoarding could cause scarcity in supply ahead of the halving and help to drive up price like now. However, if prices do not approach theoretical costs as the halving approaches, miners may feel compelled to sell to make sure they can continue to fund operations when profits go negative (negative profits could even force many miners into shutdowns). In such a case, Bitcoin could suffer a swift sell-off as lower prices motivate yet more selling. I find it telling that Bitcoin is not already trading at the halving&#8217;s theoretical mining cost. Either the cost model is wrong or this market is very inefficient (or some combination of both!).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>2020 As the Year of Crypto<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The parallel rally in alternative coins also belies point explanations for Bitcoin&#8217;s price rally in 2020. Just looking at the price action in alt-coins like Ethereum (ETH\/USD), I would simply conclude that cryptocurrencies in general caught cachet again in 2020. (Note that <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Google Trend search interest in Ethereum (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/trends.google.com\/trends\/explore?date=today%201-m&amp;q=bitcoin,ethereum\" target=\"_blank\">Google Trend search interest in Ethereum<\/a> pales in comparison to Bitcoin).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1000\" height=\"706\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_ETHUSD.png\" alt=\"Ethereum (ETH\/USD), along with numerous alternative (alt) coins, has enjoyed a sharp rally in 2020 after a 6-month downtrend to end 2019.\" class=\"wp-image-51576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_ETHUSD.png 1000w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_ETHUSD-768x542.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption>Ethereum (ETH\/USD), along with numerous alternative (alt) coins, has enjoyed a sharp rally in 2020 after a 6-month downtrend to end 2019.<br><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/zRbhj8F0\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"TradingView.com (opens in a new tab)\">TradingView.com<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Google Trend Momentum Check (GTMC)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I checked Google trends for clues. This time <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/06\/30\/how-to-use-google-trend-momentum-check-with-bitcoin-prices\/\">the Google Trends Momentum Check (GTMC)<\/a> revealed little to nothing. While interest has slowly risen this year, there are no big moves to suggest that a rush into Bitcoin is underway. The good news is that this lack of apparent interest suggests plenty of upside remains for this rally. Recall that the big rally to the last major peak in June, 2019 was <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/06\/30\/how-to-use-google-trend-momentum-check-with-bitcoin-prices\/\">accompanied by a run-up in the GTMC<\/a>. The GTMC flashed a red light and signal that the rally would not likely last much longer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"601\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin12months.png\" alt=\"Google Trends for Bitcoin over the past 12 months shows very little uptick in interest since the run-up that accompanied the last peak in Bitcoin's price.\" class=\"wp-image-51578\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin12months.png 800w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin12months-768x577.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><figcaption>Google Trends for Bitcoin over the past 12 months shows very little uptick in interest since the run-up that accompanied the last peak in Bitcoin&#8217;s price.<br> <strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/trends.google.com\/trends\/explore?q=bitcoin\">Google Trends<\/a><\/strong> <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"604\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin30days.png\" alt=\"The Google Trends for Bitcoin over the last 30 days shows that run-up to and through $10K has barely sparked an increase in interest.\" class=\"wp-image-51579\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin30days.png 800w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200216_GoogleTrends-Bitcoin30days-768x580.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><figcaption>The Google Trends for Bitcoin over the last 30 days shows that run-up to and through $10K has barely sparked an increase in interest.<br><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/trends.google.com\/trends\/explore?q=bitcoin\">Google Trends<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>South Africa has been a leading country for the GTMC for Bitcoin. It fell from number 2 to number 5 from the last 12 months to the last 30 days. Ghana popped up as number 4. The dominance of African nations in the GTMC for Bitcoin is a subtle sign of a future of cryptocurrency and economic innovation just over the horizon that could rival developments elsewhere in the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Trade<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I sold my Bitcoin holdings after watching the cryptocurrency struggle to break through the upper resistance line. After Bitcoin broke down below $10K on Saturday (February 15th), I immediately started a fresh accumulation process. I am assuming $8250 is the next level of firm support if selling pressure continues. That level represents the previous low converging with the former downtrend line. I will be happy to double down on Bitcoin at that level. A &#8220;worst case&#8221; scenario is a sell-off to last year&#8217;s lows where I would be even happier to buy more Bitcoin. I remain uninterested in speculating in alternative coins (which at the time of writing are experiencing steep sell-offs).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long BTC\/USD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Price Action Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) is on more media radars after breaking out above $10,000 last week. Last month, Bitcoin broke out from a downtrend in place since the last big run-up peaked in June, 2019. The $10K breakout ran into a wall from resistance formed by the high when Bitcoin suddenly spiked straight up &#8230; <a title=\"Bitcoin: A Trading Note for Breakouts, 10K and the Halving\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/16\/bitcoin-trading-note-for-breakouts-10k-halving\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":51574,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1974,921,512,62,1210],"tags":[602,1958,2310,1975,1164,2222,2223,2309],"class_list":["post-51573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cryptocurrency-forex","category-downtrend","category-resistance","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-model","tag-bitcoin","tag-btc-usd","tag-eth-usd","tag-ethereum","tag-google-trends","tag-google-trends-momentum-check","tag-gtmc","tag-halving"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin: A Trading Note for Breakouts, 10K and the Halving - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/16\/bitcoin-trading-note-for-breakouts-10k-halving\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin: A Trading Note for Breakouts, 10K and the Halving - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Price Action Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) is on more media radars after breaking out above $10,000 last week. 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ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/16\/bitcoin-trading-note-for-breakouts-10k-halving\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Bitcoin: A Trading Note for Breakouts, 10K and the Halving - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","og_description":"The Price Action Bitcoin (BTC\/USD) is on more media radars after breaking out above $10,000 last week. Last month, Bitcoin broke out from a downtrend in place since the last big run-up peaked in June, 2019. The $10K breakout ran into a wall from resistance formed by the high when Bitcoin suddenly spiked straight up ... 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