{"id":51541,"date":"2020-02-15T12:17:40","date_gmt":"2020-02-15T20:17:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=51541"},"modified":"2020-02-15T12:17:42","modified_gmt":"2020-02-15T20:17:42","slug":"m-i-homes-earnings-q4-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/15\/m-i-homes-earnings-q4-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"M\/I Homes Earnings Q4 2019: No Upside Surprises Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Overall Assessment<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>I am <strong>neutral<\/strong> on M\/I Homes (MHO) which means I am content to stay on the sidelines until a fresh catalyst pushes me off the fence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Q4 earnings report for M\/I Homes was relatively straightforward. So I am at a loss to explain why the stock gapped down as much as it did after earnings. The near flat post-earnings close makes more sense. Overall, MHO looks like a builder that will deliver good but not great performance this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p>This earnings review is my second review of the company. MHO caught my attention in late July 2019, <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/28\/housing-market-review-july-2019\/\">when the stock experienced a major post-earnings breakout<\/a>. With <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/13\/counter-seasonal-breakout-widens-for-home-builders\/\">a widening breakout among select homebuilders<\/a> two weeks prior, I decided it was finally time for me to get more familiar with M\/I Homes. M\/I Homes (MHO) is a mature builder that has settled into a tight range on margins. The investment thesis for M\/I Homes has to be all about sales and revenue growth that falls straight to the bottom-line. MHO is attractive with a low valuation, but I also do not see how the reliance on affordable homes can drive financial performance even better than 2019. Comparables will also be very difficult going later into 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>MHO does not provide forward-looking guidance, so the company is prone to major surprises both to the upside and downside. The results from Q4 tell me not to expect any upside surprises: margins are locked in and revenue growth is constrained by the dynamics of the affordably-priced part of the market. In other words, MHO is only a buy on a price discount (a fundamental reason) and\/or after the stock closes its post-earnings gap and starts higher (a technical reason).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Performance<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>One day after reporting Q4 2019 earnings: -1.8% <\/li><li>Since the close after Q4 2018 earnings: +45.8%<\/li><li>Since the close after Q4 2019 earnings: -1.0%<\/li><li>For the year until the close before earnings: +12.1%; compare to +9.9% for the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/02\/200214_MHO.png\" alt=\"M\/I Homes (MHO) has netted no change over the last 4 months. The stock now pivots around its 50DMA.\" class=\"wp-image-51543\"\/><figcaption>M\/I Homes (MHO) has netted no change over the last 4 months. The stock now pivots around its 50DMA.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Valuation<\/strong> (<a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/MHO\/key-statistics?p=MHO\">from Yahoo Finance<\/a>)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>12-month trailing P\/E: 9.6<\/li><li>12-month forward P\/E: 7.9<\/li><li>Price\/book: 1.2<\/li><li>Price\/sales: 0.5<\/li><li>Short % of float: 4.5% (an increase from 1.9%, August 11, 2019)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Year-Over-Year Performance (3 months ended December 31, 2019 and quarter-ending values)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Total revenue: +3% (record 4th quarter)<\/li><li>Home deliveries: +5% (quarterly record)<\/li><li>New contracts: +42% (record 4th quarter)<\/li><li>Average selling price: -1.6%<\/li><li>Operating income: +12.5%<\/li><li>Adjusted gross margin: from 19.8% to 19.9%<\/li><li>Gross margin: +9.8%<\/li><li>Net income per diluted share: +25.2%<\/li><li>Ending backlog value: +18% (record 4th quarter)<\/li><li>Cash and cash equivalents: -71.7%<\/li><li>Ratio of net debt to capital: from 44% to 38%<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Year-Over-Year Performance (12 months ended December 31, 2019)<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Total revenue: +9.3%<\/li><li>Home deliveries: +9.0%<\/li><li>New contracts: +15.9%<\/li><li>Average selling price: 0%<\/li><li>Operating income: +14.7%<\/li><li>Adjusted gross margin: from 19.9% to 19.8% <\/li><li>Gross margin: +10.3%<\/li><li>Net income per diluted share: +21.1%<\/li><li>$600M spent on on land purchases and land development, 44% on raw land. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Year-Over-Year Guidance and targets<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Average community count: +5% from 2019<\/li><li>$650-700M spending on land purchase and development<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Highlights from the Earnings Call<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>General Guidance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Margins will be at least at current levels and no worse. <\/li><li>Average sales price will be down 2-3% (but it is hard to predict)<\/li><li>Smart Series homes could go over 30-35% of sales in the next 12 to 18 months <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Market Conditions and Characteristics of Demand<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Smart Series houses (the most affordable offering) will be in over 25% of communities versus 10% a year ago, 25% of sales.<\/li><li>Traffic up 19%<\/li><li>49% of sales were first time buyers versus 46% in Q3<\/li><li>44% of sales were inventory homes versus 47% in Q3.<\/li><li>Selling season started earlier this year (before the Super Bowl)<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Regional highlights<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Columbus, Ohio is one of the company&#8217;s strongest markets.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Inventory<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Control about 5 years of land  <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Margins and Costs<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>&#8220;Minimal&#8221; change in construction costs<\/li><li>MHO is a 20-21% gross margin business<\/li><li>Finished lot cost is up just around $1000 over previous year<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pricing Power<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>&#8220;&#8230;we have a little bit of pricing power, not a lot, and it&#8217;s market dependent and location dependent.&#8221;<\/li><li>Hard to get operational efficiencies with a declining average sales price<\/li><li>Discounting is not a big issue<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Earnings sources<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"http:\/\/investors.mihomes.com\/Cache\/1001260430.PDF?O=PDF&amp;T=&amp;Y=&amp;D=&amp;FID=1001260430&amp;iid=4006323\" target=\"_blank\">2019 4th quarter results<\/a>: February 5, 2020<\/li><li><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"http:\/\/investors.mihomes.com\/Cache\/1500124513.PDF?O=PDF&amp;T=&amp;Y=&amp;D=&amp;FID=1500124513&amp;iid=4006323\" target=\"_blank\">2019 3rd quarter results<\/a>: October 23, 2019<\/li><li><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"2019 1st quarter results (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"http:\/\/investors.mihomes.com\/file\/Index?KeyFile=1001251773\" target=\"_blank\">2019 1st quarter results<\/a>: April 24, 2019<\/li><li><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"http:\/\/investors.mihomes.com\/file\/Index?KeyFile=1001248098\" target=\"_blank\">2018 4th quarter results<\/a>: February 5, 2019<\/li><li><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4321780-m-i-homes-inc-mho-ceo-bob-schottenstein-on-q4-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single\" target=\"_blank\">Seeking Alpha Transcripts<\/a>:  M\/I Homes, Inc. (MHO) CEO Bob Schottenstein on Q4 2019 Results \u2013 Earnings Call Transcript<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long ITB calendar call spread and ITB calls<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Overall Assessment I am neutral on M\/I Homes (MHO) which means I am content to stay on the sidelines until a fresh catalyst pushes me off the fence. The Q4 earnings report for M\/I Homes was relatively straightforward. So I am at a loss to explain why the stock gapped down as much as it &#8230; <a title=\"M\/I Homes Earnings Q4 2019: No Upside Surprises Ahead\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/15\/m-i-homes-earnings-q4-2019\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,35,62,982],"tags":[2015,2233,2232],"class_list":["post-51541","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-housing","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-home-builders","tag-m-i-homes","tag-mho"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>M\/I Homes Earnings Q4 2019: No Upside Surprises Ahead - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/15\/m-i-homes-earnings-q4-2019\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"M\/I Homes Earnings Q4 2019: No Upside Surprises Ahead - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Overall Assessment I am neutral on M\/I Homes (MHO) which means I am content to stay on the sidelines until a fresh catalyst pushes me off the fence. The Q4 earnings report for M\/I Homes was relatively straightforward. So I am at a loss to explain why the stock gapped down as much as it ... 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The Q4 earnings report for M\/I Homes was relatively straightforward. So I am at a loss to explain why the stock gapped down as much as it ... 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The stock now pivots around its 50DMA."},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/02\/15\/m-i-homes-earnings-q4-2019\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"M\/I Homes Earnings Q4 2019: No Upside Surprises Ahead"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#website","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/","name":"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","description":"Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":["Person","Organization"],"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0","name":"Dr. Duru","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","width":900,"height":100,"caption":"Dr. Duru"},"logo":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/onetwentytwo","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/","https:\/\/x.com\/drduru"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51541","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51541"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51541\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51549,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51541\/revisions\/51549"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51541"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51541"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51541"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}