{"id":51241,"date":"2020-01-19T17:38:04","date_gmt":"2020-01-20T01:38:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=51241"},"modified":"2020-01-19T17:42:55","modified_gmt":"2020-01-20T01:42:55","slug":"forex-critical-mexican-peso-hits-key-milestone-after-usmca-passage","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/01\/19\/forex-critical-mexican-peso-hits-key-milestone-after-usmca-passage\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Critical: Mexican Peso Hits Key Milestone After USMCA Passage"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The U.S. Senate approved the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade agreement<\/a> on Thursday, January 16th. That timing may mark a major milestone and turning point for the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar (USD\/MXN). The following day, USD\/MXN sliced through the low of 2019 and hit a 17-month low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The U.S. dollar vs Mexican peso (USD\/MXN) hit a 17-month low.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

I have been bullish on the Mexican peso for several years, but I have yet to stick with my positions short USD\/MXN. Instead, I have chosen to take profits in increments. Last week’s trading action made me zoom out and take another look at USD\/MXN.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The U.S. dollar vs Mexican peso (USD\/MXN) peaked three years ago and looks ready to confirm a top.
Source: TradingView.com<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The weekly chart above shows USD\/MXN peaked two months after the 2016 U.S. Presidential election. USD\/MXN sold off from there for about 8 months. That run was part of my initial bullishness on the Mexican peso<\/a> (it was also a time when I was still tracking equities and currencies that reversed post-election euphoria). Subsequent run-ups provided new opportunities to fade. USD\/MXN has printed lower highs and lower lows since its September, 2019 peak. Put it all together and USD\/MXN looks like it is “rolling over” into a confirmed peak (first below the April, 2018 low and ultimately the 2017 low). I will be trading accordingly. The currency market is anticipating a stronger Mexican economy ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am also bullish on the Canadian dollar (FXC), but the currency is not enjoying quite the same (relative) fortunes as the Mexican peso. USD\/CAD managed to hit a 15-month low earlier this month, but rebounded sharply from there. USD\/CAD was a lot lower in early 2017. I will remain patient on choosing points for fading USD\/CAD rallies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The U.S. dollar vs Canadian dollar (USD\/CAD) rebounded sharply off a 15-month low.
Source: TradingView.com<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Adding to my bearishness on select U.S. dollar currency pairs is a U.S. dollar index (DXY) that is slowly fading. The 200-day moving average (DMA) is a critical pivot point for DXY. For 6 weeks, DXY has traded below the 200DMA. Since breaking out above the 200DMA in April, a dip in June is the only other time DXY spent time below the 200DMA as resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is struggling to break through resistance at its 200DMA
Source: TradingView.com<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The struggles of the U.S. dollar index may become the most important signal in forex for 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Full disclosure: long and short U.S. dollar pairs<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The U.S. Senate approved the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade agreement on Thursday, January 16th. That timing may mark a major milestone and turning point for the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar (USD\/MXN). The following day, USD\/MXN sliced through the low of 2019 and hit a 17-month low. I have been bullish on the Mexican … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,20,1853,512,62,21],"tags":[296,2049,297,1842,1838,469,1841],"class_list":["post-51241","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakdown","category-forex","category-mexico","category-resistance","category-technical-analysis","category-u-s-dollar","tag-canadian-dollar","tag-dxy","tag-fxc","tag-mexican-peso","tag-u-s-dollar-index","tag-usdcad","tag-usdmxn"],"yoast_head":"\nForex Critical: Mexican Peso Hits Key Milestone After USMCA Passage - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2020\/01\/19\/forex-critical-mexican-peso-hits-key-milestone-after-usmca-passage\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forex Critical: Mexican Peso Hits Key Milestone After USMCA Passage - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The U.S. Senate approved the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade agreement on Thursday, January 16th. 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