{"id":50844,"date":"2019-12-06T20:35:25","date_gmt":"2019-12-07T04:35:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=50844"},"modified":"2019-12-06T20:38:48","modified_gmt":"2019-12-07T04:38:48","slug":"forex-critical-canadian-dollar-reacts-to-a-bottoming-unemployment-rate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/12\/06\/forex-critical-canadian-dollar-reacts-to-a-bottoming-unemployment-rate\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Critical: Canadian Dollar Reacts to a Bottoming Unemployment Rate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

My now wavering bullish case for the Canadian dollar (FXC)<\/a> took a major hit with the November, 2019 Labour Force Survey<\/a>. Statistics Canada reported worsening unemployment rates both sequentially and year-over-year. November’s 5.9% unemployment rate was an increase from October’s 5.5% and the 5.6% in November, 2018. The chart below suggests an end to the downtrend in the unemployment rate in place since the 2015\/2016 oil shock peak. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The Canadian unemployment rate looks like it has bottomed with the first higher low since 2015.
Source: Statistics Canada<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

The weak jobs report spooked the currency market as the Canadian dollar sold off broadly against major currencies. The USD\/CAD pair reacted particularly sharply given the strength in the U.S. jobs report<\/a> the same morning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The U.S. dollar versus the Canadian dollar (USD\/CAD) jumped back to 200DMA resistance in reaction to a weak jobs report.
Source: TradingView<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in the unemployment rate, potentially good news exists, and it is good enough to keep me long the Canadian dollar. The number<\/strong> of jobs grew year-over-year by 293,000, a 1.6% gain. As a bonus, the majority of this increase came from full-time work. Moreover, the total number of hours worked increased 0.2%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

From a technical perspective, I think USD\/CAD will remain rangebound for the foreseeable future. The 200-day moving average (DMA) has flattened, the double-bottom from July and October looks confirmed, and overhead resistance is holding strong at the peaks formed since August. However, under the current economic circumstances, I will exit my short USD\/CAD position on a breakout above the range. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Full disclosure: short USD\/CAD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

My now wavering bullish case for the Canadian dollar (FXC) took a major hit with the November, 2019 Labour Force Survey. Statistics Canada reported worsening unemployment rates both sequentially and year-over-year. November’s 5.9% unemployment rate was an increase from October’s 5.5% and the 5.6% in November, 2018. The chart below suggests an end to the … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[235,59,20,62,982],"tags":[296,297,197,469],"class_list":["post-50844","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-canada","category-economy","category-forex","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-canadian-dollar","tag-fxc","tag-unemployment","tag-usdcad"],"yoast_head":"\nForex Critical: Canadian Dollar Reacts to a Bottoming Unemployment Rate - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/12\/06\/forex-critical-canadian-dollar-reacts-to-a-bottoming-unemployment-rate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forex Critical: Canadian Dollar Reacts to a Bottoming Unemployment Rate - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"My now wavering bullish case for the Canadian dollar (FXC) took a major hit with the November, 2019 Labour Force Survey. 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