{"id":50161,"date":"2019-10-02T00:48:32","date_gmt":"2019-10-02T07:48:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=50161"},"modified":"2019-10-02T00:48:34","modified_gmt":"2019-10-02T07:48:34","slug":"t2108-update-191001","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/10\/02\/t2108-update-191001\/","title":{"rendered":"One-Third of the Way to An Average October Drawdown – Above the 40 (October 1, 2019)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

AT40<\/strong> = 51.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)
AT200<\/strong> = 48.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs
VIX<\/strong> = 18.6
Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bearish<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Big Question<\/strong>: Another Q4 Sell-Off?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

“Last year can’t happen because of last year”<\/p>Tim Seymour, CNBC’s Fast Money, October 1, 2019<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Here we go again. It seems like every time the S&P 500 (SPY) loses around 1% or more, the hang wringing begins. The big October to December sell-off of 2018 is the obvious comparison for this cycle. Optimists may tend to think history will not repeat simply because it is “too obvious.” Pessimists may tend to believe that the risks are even higher than a year ago so the market should<\/strong> sell-off hard again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Fast Money crew on CNBC discussed the prospects for a repeat of 2018’s stomach churning fourth quarter. Opinions were mixed, but I duly noted the bearish “leanings”. Particularly, perma-bear Dan Nathan did not receive the typical mocking for being bearish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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