{"id":49904,"date":"2019-09-13T00:07:51","date_gmt":"2019-09-13T07:07:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=49904"},"modified":"2021-05-02T00:05:33","modified_gmt":"2021-05-02T07:05:33","slug":"home-depot-lowes-companies-mismatch-for-holidays","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/09\/13\/home-depot-lowes-companies-mismatch-for-holidays\/","title":{"rendered":"A Home Depot and Lowe&#8217;s Companies Mismatch for the Holidays"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Valuation Gap<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Lowe&#8217;s Companies (LOW) gets a bad rap relative to Home Depot (HD) for being the weaker operator for the home improvement and do-it-yourself (DIY) crowd. Investors are willing to pay a trailing 36 P\/E, forward 17 P\/E, 1.2 price\/sales, and 33.5 price\/book for LOW. Investors are willing to pay a trailing 23 P\/E, forward 21 P\/E, and 2.3 price\/sales (price\/book is not available) for HD (data from <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Yahoo Finance (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/quote\/HD\/key-statistics?p=HD\" target=\"_blank\">Yahoo Finance<\/a>). The P\/S ratio is the most interesting since HD&#8217;s price\/sales is nearly twice that of LOW&#8217;s. Moreover, HD pays a 2.2% dividend yield compared to LOW&#8217;s pays 1.8%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>An Early Halloween and Christmas<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>An even starker difference recently appeared in how the two retailers are handling their displays for the upcoming Fall\/Winter holiday. Home Depot is quite focused on an extensive Halloween display full of options and holiday delights. Lowe&#8217;s chose to throw up a confusing mash-up of Halloween and Christmas offerings.  I used a video for Home Depot given all the action and the wide array of offerings.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Home Depot Halloween display 2019\" width=\"1200\" height=\"675\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ff6kXAgyji8?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/190912_LowesHalloweenChristmas.jpg\" alt=\"Lowe's Companies (LOW) has a very confusing holiday display combining Halloween and Christmas.\" class=\"wp-image-49905\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/190912_LowesHalloweenChristmas.jpg 800w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/190912_LowesHalloweenChristmas-768x576.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><figcaption><strong>Lowe&#8217;s Companies (LOW) has a very confusing holiday display combining Halloween and Christmas.<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Christmas is over three months away, so I do not even understand WHY Lowe&#8217;s is bothering with those holiday offerings. This over-reach has clearly caused Lowe&#8217;s to come up far short of Home Depot&#8217;s extensive set of Halloween offerings. This stark difference should help Home Depot achieve a foot traffic advantage in the coming month or more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Stock Charts<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The stock charts also tell a story of distinct differences. HD is up 36.1% year-to-date and closed today at an <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/06\/24\/an-all-time-high-defines-history-not-the-future\/\">all-time high<\/a>. LOW&#8217;s is up 23.3% year-to-date after an extremely choppy year that included THREE pullbacks to or through 2018&#8217;s closing price. In other words, HD has not only performed better but also it delivered a much better risk\/reward for the buy and hold crowd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/190912_HD.png\" alt=\"Home Depot (HD) is on a relatively reliable uptrend of higher highs and higher lows on the way to all-time highs.\" class=\"wp-image-49908\"\/><figcaption>Home Depot (HD) is on a relatively reliable uptrend of higher highs and higher lows on the way to all-time highs.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/190912_LOW.png\" alt=\"Lowe's Companies (LOW) has chopped around all year and is now facing resistance at the April (marginal) all-time high.\" class=\"wp-image-49909\"\/><figcaption>Lowe&#8217;s Companies (LOW) has chopped around all year and is now facing resistance at the April (marginal) all-time high.<br><strong>Source for charts: FreeStockCharts<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Pairs Trade<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>With LOW&#8217;s facing resistance at the all-time high in April (which itself barely surpassed the previous all-time high in September, 2018), this situation sets up for a potentially interesting pairs trade going short LOW versus long HD. I prefer a configuration that sets up ahead of earnings for both companies. Home Depot next reports earnings November 19th and Lowe&#8217;s the day after. These earnings are conveniently right after the expiration of monthly November options on November 15th.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I use the previous two post-earnings moves to pick an upside target for HD. HD delivered a maximum post-earnings gain of 14% after May&#8217;s report and 9.7% after the February report. A 10% gain from the August report puts HD at $239, just 2.2% higher from today&#8217;s close. So I want to wait for a dip, hopefully at least 5%, before picking a call option configuration. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the meantime, I am comfortable buying the short side of the pairs trade. Surprisingly, LOW&#8217;s only has November options expiring on the first of the month. Assuming a November 15th expiration does not show up soon, I like buying a $110\/106 put spread for about $0.80. Assuming downside risk to the post-earnings low of $106, I can target at least a triple on this put spread. When I buy HD call options to complete the pairs trade, I will target a configuration with a profit target that is at least double the value of the put options.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Valuation Gap Lowe&#8217;s Companies (LOW) gets a bad rap relative to Home Depot (HD) for being the weaker operator for the home improvement and do-it-yourself (DIY) crowd. Investors are willing to pay a trailing 36 P\/E, forward 17 P\/E, 1.2 price\/sales, and 33.5 price\/book for LOW. Investors are willing to pay a trailing 23 P\/E, &#8230; <a title=\"A Home Depot and Lowe&#8217;s Companies Mismatch for the Holidays\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/09\/13\/home-depot-lowes-companies-mismatch-for-holidays\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49908,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,338],"tags":[2262,2261,1067,1066,1002,2260,418],"class_list":["post-49904","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-options","category-retail","tag-christmas","tag-halloween","tag-hd","tag-home-depot","tag-low","tag-lowes-companies","tag-pairs-trade"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Home Depot and Lowe&#039;s Companies Mismatch for the Holidays - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/09\/13\/home-depot-lowes-companies-mismatch-for-holidays\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Home Depot and Lowe&#039;s Companies Mismatch for the Holidays - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Valuation Gap Lowe&#8217;s Companies (LOW) gets a bad rap relative to Home Depot (HD) for being the weaker operator for the home improvement and do-it-yourself (DIY) crowd. Investors are willing to pay a trailing 36 P\/E, forward 17 P\/E, 1.2 price\/sales, and 33.5 price\/book for LOW. Investors are willing to pay a trailing 23 P\/E, ... 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Investors are willing to pay a trailing 36 P\/E, forward 17 P\/E, 1.2 price\/sales, and 33.5 price\/book for LOW. Investors are willing to pay a trailing 23 P\/E, ... 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