{"id":49684,"date":"2019-08-27T23:28:25","date_gmt":"2019-08-28T06:28:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=49684"},"modified":"2020-02-09T16:18:45","modified_gmt":"2020-02-10T00:18:45","slug":"t2108-update-190827","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/08\/27\/t2108-update-190827\/","title":{"rendered":"The 401K Stock Market Loses Some Faith As Divergence Flips &#8211; Above the 40 (August 27, 2019)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>AT40<\/strong> = 28.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) <br><strong>AT200<\/strong> = 39.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)<br><strong>VIX<\/strong> = 20.3<br><strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: neutral (from cautiously bullish)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/08\/25\/t2108-update-190821\/\">The 401K stock market&#8217;s ugly sandwich<\/a> just got a bit soggy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My premise for clinging to a cautiously bullish short-term trading call has depended on an expectation for an imminent breakout for the S&amp;P 500 (SPY). This move above the 50-day moving average (DMA) would then lead to the next marginal all-time high (and next topping pattern). After two subsequent tests of <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/08\/11\/t2108-update-190809\/\">the August extreme<\/a> and some hints of a bullish divergence, the stock market flipped into hints of bearish divergence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The Bearish Divergence<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) only lost 0.3% on the day, but the index faded hard from a 1% gain at the intraday high. The start of the fade forced me to take a loss on my SPY call options as I saw the premium falling fast ahead of the bulk of the index&#8217;s pullback. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/190827_SP500.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) faded hard from its declining 20DMA and lost 0.3%.\" class=\"wp-image-49688\"\/><figcaption>The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) faded hard from its declining 20DMA and lost 0.3%.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF (IWM) really woke me up as its slow-motion sell-off took another turn for the worse. The index of small-cap stocks under-performed with a notable 1.5% loss and a 7-month low. A retest of the December low is back in play with little to no &#8220;natural&#8221; support between here and there.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/190827_IWM.png\" alt=\"The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF (IWM) broke the May low and has put the December low back into play.\" class=\"wp-image-49687\"\/><figcaption>The iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund ETF (IWM) broke the May low and has put the December low back into play.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>While IWM belies the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s surface resilience, my favorite technical indicators demonstrate the hints of bearish divergence best. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/t2108-resource-page\/\">AT40 (T2108)<\/a>, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, sank all the way back to 28.6%. AT40 closed just a fraction below the previous low, but this move was enough to send warning bells.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/190827_T2108.png\" alt=\"AT40 (T2108) closed below Friday's precipitous low, making my favorite technical indicator look finally ready to drop to oversold trading conditions.\" class=\"wp-image-49689\"\/><figcaption>AT40 (T2108) closed below Friday&#8217;s precipitous low, making my favorite technical indicator look finally ready to drop to oversold trading conditions.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The prior script for August was a hopeful bounce following a pullback to the August extremes. Now, oversold conditions &#8211; AT40 below 20% &#8211; seem ready to great the end of summer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>AT200 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, also took a turn for the worse. This longer-term indicator dropped ever closer to the May low and a confirmation of the deteriorating underlying health of the stock market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/190827_T2107.png\" alt=\"AT200 (T2107) continues to creep up on the important May low as this longer-term indicator keeps looking more and more toppy.\" class=\"wp-image-49690\"\/><figcaption>AT200 (T2107) continues to creep up on the important May low as this longer-term indicator keeps looking more and more toppy.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Still Residual Resilience<\/strong>?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The volatility index (VIX) still looks very reulctant to respond to the increasing risks in the stock market. Now that I have flipped from cautiously bullish to neutral, I see this behavior less as a sign of bullish resilience and more of a hint that the stock market will not solidly bottom until the VIX is forced above the highs of this latest selling cycle, perhaps WELL above. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/190827_VIX.png\" alt=\"The volatility index (VIX) edged to 20.3 and sits back at &quot;elevated&quot; levels.\" class=\"wp-image-49686\"\/><figcaption>The volatility index (VIX) edged to 20.3 and sits back at &#8220;elevated&#8221; levels.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Despite my growing wariness, I am not turning bearish on the stock market. I want to stay mentally ready to jump on buying opportunities if (when?) the market sells off into oversold territory. Assuming the August extreme holds this week, I am looking to September, to live up to <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/12\/01\/sp500-historic-october-drawdown-bled-into-november\/\">its reputation as a &#8220;dangerous&#8221; month<\/a> with an average maximum drawdown of 2.8% (on a closing basis). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Stock Chart Reviews &#8211; Bearish<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>U.S. Concrete<\/strong> (USCR)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In a little over a month, U.S. Concrete (USCR) erased 5 months of hard fought gains. While I am holding my shares  as a long-term investment, I fully recognize that today&#8217;s 6.9% loss and 200DMA breakdown is a very bearish sign for the stock. This is the kind of bad turn that is signalling more trouble ahead for the general market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/190827_USCR.png\" alt=\"U.S. Concrete (USCR) lost 6.6% and confirmed a 200DMA breakdown. USCR closed at a 6-month low.\" class=\"wp-image-49685\"\/><figcaption>U.S. Concrete (USCR) lost 6.6% and confirmed a 200DMA breakdown. USCR closed at a 6-month low.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong> Stock Chart Reviews &#8211; Bullish<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Papa Johns International <\/strong>(PZZA)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Papa Johns International (PZZA) was a sight for sore eyes. The company announced <a href=\"https:\/\/ir.papajohns.com\/news-releases\/news-release-details\/papa-johns-appoints-proven-transformational-leader-rob-lynch\">Rob Lynch as its new President and CEO<\/a>, and the stock responded with a bullish 200DMA breakout. The breakout looks even better with a successful intraday test of 50DMA as support and a close above a 2-month consolidation period. The stock is a buy on the dips up to 200DMA support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/190827_PZZA.png\" alt=\"Papa Johns International (PZZA) gained 9.5% on news of the new CEO and made a bullish breakout above both its 50 and 200DMAs.\" class=\"wp-image-49692\"\/><figcaption>Papa Johns International (PZZA) gained 9.5% on news of the new CEO and made a bullish breakout above both its 50 and 200DMAs.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8212; &#8211; &#8212;<br>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<center><br>\n<strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/feedburner.google.com\/fb\/a\/mailverify?uri=onetwentytwo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">email<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><br>\n<\/center>\n\n\n\n<p>&#8220;Above the 40&#8221; uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) to assess the technical health of the stock market and to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Abbreviated as AT40, Above the 40 is an alternative label for &#8220;T2108&#8221; which was created by <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worden.com\/CURRENTAFPROMO.aspx?AFCODE=866\" target=\"_blank\">Worden<\/a>. Learn more about T2108 on my <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or T2107, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Active AT40 (T2108) periods<\/strong>: Day #162 over 20%, Day #1 under 30% (underperiod ending 1 day over 30%), Day #13 under 40%, Day #20 under 50%, Day #29 under 60%, Day #119 under 70%<\/p>\n\n\n\n<center><br>\n<strong>Daily AT40 (T2108)<\/strong><br>\n<figure><a href=\"https:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"T2108 (DAILY)\" src=\"https:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\"><\/a><\/figure><p><\/p>\n<p>Black line: AT40 (T2108) (% measured on the right)<br>\nRed line: Overbought threshold (70%); Blue line: Oversold threshold (20%)<br>\n<\/p><\/center>\n\n\n\n<center><br>\n<strong>Weekly AT40 (T2108)<\/strong><br>\n<figure><a href=\"https:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly_s.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Weekly T2108\" src=\"https:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly_s.png\" alt=\"Weekly T2108\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\"><\/a><\/figure><br>\n*<strong>All charts created using <\/strong><strong>FreeStockCharts<\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center>\n\n\n\n<p>The T2108 charts above are my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given AT40 post. For my latest AT40 post <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/tag\/t2108\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Full disclosure<\/strong>: long UVXY calls, long USCR<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>*Charting notes: FreeStockCharts stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. TradingView.com charts for currencies use Tokyo time as the start of the forex trading day. FreeStockCharts currency charts are based on Eastern U.S. time to define the trading day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AT40 = 28.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 20.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral (from cautiously bullish) Stock Market Commentary The 401K stock market&#8217;s ugly sandwich just got a bit soggy. My premise for clinging to a &#8230; <a title=\"The 401K Stock Market Loses Some Faith As Divergence Flips &#8211; Above the 40 (August 27, 2019)\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/08\/27\/t2108-update-190827\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49689,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,482,199,1054,43,62],"tags":[1820,1819,909,1353,65,362,225,226,2303,1772,303],"class_list":["post-49684","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-commodities","category-dining","category-industrial-sector","category-technical-analysis","tag-at200","tag-at40","tag-iwm","tag-pzza","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-t2107","tag-t2108","tag-trading-call-change","tag-uscr","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The 401K Stock Market Loses Some Faith As Divergence Flips - Above the 40 (August 27, 2019) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/08\/27\/t2108-update-190827\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The 401K Stock Market Loses Some Faith As Divergence Flips - Above the 40 (August 27, 2019) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"AT40 = 28.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 39.5% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)VIX = 20.3Short-term Trading Call: neutral (from cautiously bullish) Stock Market Commentary The 401K stock market&#8217;s ugly sandwich just got a bit soggy. My premise for clinging to a ... 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My premise for clinging to a ... 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