{"id":49611,"date":"2019-08-25T18:29:11","date_gmt":"2019-08-26T01:29:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=49611"},"modified":"2019-08-25T18:51:43","modified_gmt":"2019-08-26T01:51:43","slug":"t2108-update-190821","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/08\/25\/t2108-update-190821\/","title":{"rendered":"The 401K Stock Market Chokes On A Powell and Trade War Sandwich – Above the 40 (August 23, 2019)"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

AT40<\/strong> = 28.8% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)
AT200<\/strong> = 39.9% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (2-month low)
VIX<\/strong> = 19.9
Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish (see caveats below)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stock Market Commentary<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Presidential Decrees<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

“Q    Six hundred and twenty-three points \u2014 that\u2019s what the Dow was down today because of what you tweeted.  Do you have a responsibility for that?
THE PRESIDENT:  Not at all.  Not at all.  Because if you look at from November 9th \u2014 the day after the election \u2014 we\u2019re up 50 percent or more.  We\u2019re up many, many points.  We were at about sixteen or seventeen thousand.  We\u2019re at 25,000, so don\u2019t tell me about 600 points.”<\/p> Remarks by President Trump Before Marine One Departure<\/a>, Issued on: August 24, 2019 <\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Quotes like these are what make this stock market “The 401K Stock Market<\/a>.” The President keeps track of the stock market and has a sense of how it relates to his perceived performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I ignore the Dow Jones Industrials<\/a>, so I will restate the President’s calculations in S&P 500 (SPY) equivalents. On November 9, 2016, the S&P 500 closed up 1.1% at 2163; recall that stock market futures were down as much as 10% overnight and currency markets swung wildly<\/a>. Since the market close on Election day<\/a> (2139.56), the S&P 500 is up 33.1% (roughly 12% annualized) as of Friday’s close at 2847.11. From the Election Day close through last Thursday’s close at 2922.95, the S&P 500 gained 783.39 points. Friday’s 2.6% loss was a drop of 75.84 points on the S&P 500. So Friday’s loss was by itself a reversal of 9.7% of the post-Election gains (75.84\/783.39). This setback is particularly notable given the S&P 500 has gone nowhere since the major peak on January 26, 2018 at 2872.87, a full 20 months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n