{"id":49608,"date":"2019-08-22T23:50:50","date_gmt":"2019-08-23T06:50:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=49608"},"modified":"2019-08-22T23:50:52","modified_gmt":"2019-08-23T06:50:52","slug":"forex-critical-bad-turn-for-turkish-lira","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/08\/22\/forex-critical-bad-turn-for-turkish-lira\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Critical: A Bad Turn for the Turkish Lira"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The honeymoon seems already over for the new governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After the promotion of Murat Uysal to governor of the CBRT, <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/07\/leadership-change-turkey-central-bank-means-fresh-lira-weakness\/\">I concluded the Turkish lira would weaken<\/a>. That weakness lasted all of one day, and the lira proceeded to bounce around in a range. Next came a rate cut that actually helped the lira strengthen. Both the euro (FXE) and the U.S. dollar (DXY) pairs with the Turkish lira broke through support at their respective 200-day moving averages (DMAs). Now that breakdown is over with both USD\/TRY and EUR\/TRY ending their 200DMA breakdowns but also starting 50DMA <strong>breakout<\/strong>s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1320\" height=\"883\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/190822_USDTRY.png\" alt=\"The U.S. Dollar vs the Turkish lira (USD\/TRY) confirmed its 50DMA breakout with a second higher close.\" class=\"wp-image-49623\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/190822_USDTRY.png 1320w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/190822_USDTRY-768x514.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1320px) 100vw, 1320px\" \/><figcaption>The U.S. Dollar vs the Turkish lira (USD\/TRY) confirmed its 50DMA breakout with a second higher close.<br><strong>Source: <\/strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"TradingView.com (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/e5pFv9ef\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1320\" height=\"932\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/190822_EURTRY.png\" alt=\"The euro vs the Turkish lira (EUR\/TRY) has not yet confirmed its 50DMA breakout but an upward sloping 200DMA looks likely to provide support for any imminent pullbacks.\" class=\"wp-image-49622\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/190822_EURTRY.png 1320w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/08\/190822_EURTRY-768x542.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1320px) 100vw, 1320px\" \/><figcaption>The euro vs the Turkish lira (EUR\/TRY) has not yet confirmed its 50DMA breakout but an upward sloping 200DMA looks likely to provide support for any imminent pullbacks.<br><strong>Source: <\/strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"TradingView.com (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/tQdoCcWe\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The proximate cause of the latest weakness in the Turkish lira is <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"the CBRT's increase in reserve requirements (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"http:\/\/tcmb.gov.tr\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/en\/tcmb+en\/main+menu\/announcements\/press+releases\/2019\/ano2019-34\" target=\"_blank\">the CBRT&#8217;s increase in reserve requirements<\/a> for banks meeting certain loan growth and size requirements. The change is so technical that I could not find publications that explained anything beyond what their media bots filtered out of the statement. I can only assume that the market&#8217;s reaction means the the reserve requirements effectively nullified the stimulative effect of <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/30\/turkish-lira-survives-rate-cut-comes-out-with-stronger-prospects\/\">the prior rate cut<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This move in the Turkish lira caught me flat-footed; I had just closed out a long USD\/TRY position that was a partial hedge on my short EUR\/TRY. Now, I face the prospect of cutting EUR\/TRY loose and once again going back to being a lira bear in the face of the 50DMA breakouts. Since I only hold small positions in the Turkish lira to manage around the risks of abrupt and large movements, I will wait to get further confirmation of the sustainability of the breakouts before making a fresh move. My best case scenario is a few weeks of churn while I collect carry on the short EUR\/TRY position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: short EUR\/TRY<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The honeymoon seems already over for the new governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). After the promotion of Murat Uysal to governor of the CBRT, I concluded the Turkish lira would weaken. That weakness lasted all of one day, and the lira proceeded to bounce around in a range. Next &#8230; <a title=\"Forex Critical: A Bad Turn for the Turkish Lira\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/08\/22\/forex-critical-bad-turn-for-turkish-lira\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49623,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,20,62,1417],"tags":[1571,1572,1808,1308,1309],"class_list":["post-49608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-breakout","category-forex","category-technical-analysis","category-turkey","tag-cbrt","tag-central-bank-of-the-republic-of-turkey","tag-eurtry","tag-turkish-lira","tag-usdtry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forex Critical: A Bad Turn for the Turkish Lira - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/08\/22\/forex-critical-bad-turn-for-turkish-lira\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forex Critical: A Bad Turn for the Turkish Lira - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The honeymoon seems already over for the new governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). After the promotion of Murat Uysal to governor of the CBRT, I concluded the Turkish lira would weaken. That weakness lasted all of one day, and the lira proceeded to bounce around in a range. Next ... 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