{"id":49060,"date":"2019-07-17T22:02:58","date_gmt":"2019-07-18T05:02:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=49060"},"modified":"2019-07-17T22:03:01","modified_gmt":"2019-07-18T05:03:01","slug":"lennar-hit-hardest-by-weight-of-tepid-housing-starts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/17\/lennar-hit-hardest-by-weight-of-tepid-housing-starts\/","title":{"rendered":"Lennar Hit Hardest By the Weight of Tepid Housing Starts"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/08\/whiplash-from-lennar-q2-earnings-presents-opportunity\/\">My wait for an entry point<\/a> to buy Lennar (LEN) continues.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On a day with multiple warning signs about the U.S. economy from companies like Csx Corp (CSX), the Census Bureau piled on with lukewarm data on housing starts. While single-family housing starts for June increased month-over-month by 3.5% to 847,000, housing starts decreased on a year-over-year basis by 0.8%. This tepid activity belies the confidence from some home builders about near-term housing demand. With <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/14\/t2108-update-190712\/\">high expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a>, home builders should be eagerly ramping up housing starts in anticipation of stronger demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181120_HousingStarts.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"468\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/190717_HousingStarts.png\" alt=\"Housing starts continue to dribble along after a hot start to the year.\" class=\"wp-image-49058\"\/><\/a><figcaption>Housing starts continue to dribble along after a hot start to the year.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Source: US. Bureau of the Census, Privately Owned Housing Starts: 1-Unit Structures [HOUST1F], <a rel=\"noopener noreferrer\" href=\"https:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/series\/HOUST1F\/\" target=\"_blank\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>, July 17, 2019.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p>Lennar (LEN) is one of those confident home builders despite <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/08\/whiplash-from-lennar-q2-earnings-presents-opportunity\/\">an earnings report that greatly disappointed investors<\/a>. The lingering wariness showed up today with the worst performance among the major home builders that I follow. LEN sank 2.0% and closed right on top of its precarious support at 200-day moving average (DMA), a 4-month low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/190717_LEN.png\" alt=\"Lennar (LEN) continues to suffer post-earnings weakness. Its close at 200DMA support marks a closing 4-month low.\" class=\"wp-image-49063\"\/><figcaption>Lennar (LEN) continues to suffer post-earnings weakness. Its close at 200DMA support marks a closing 4-month low.<br><strong>Source: FreeStockCharts<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Only LGI Homes (LGIH) performed worse with a 3.6% decline. LGIH is just off its all-time closing high, so its current struggles to break out are increasingly looking like a double-top in the making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/190717_LGIH-weekly.png\" alt=\"LGI Homes (LGIH) is still riding an uptrend from the 2018 lows, but is currently struggling to break through the all-time high set in January, 2018.\" class=\"wp-image-49065\"\/><figcaption>LGI Homes (LGIH) is still riding an uptrend from the 2018 lows, but is currently struggling to break through the all-time high set in January, 2018.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The on-going weakness in LEN increasingly makes me doubt the sustainability of what was <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/13\/counter-seasonal-breakout-widens-for-home-builders\/\">a widening breakout by home builders<\/a>. If LEN suffers a 200DMA breakdown, I will remove the stock from my &#8220;pre-season&#8221; buying list. I find it hard to imagine that the breakout in home builders could push through a LEN breakdown. The gravity of <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/04\/20\/how-to-trade-seasonal-patterns-for-home-builder-stocks\/\">the seasonal top<\/a> may yet enact its yearly influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/190717_CSX.png\" alt=\"Railroad company Csx (CSX) plunged post-earnings by 10.3%. The stock also failed to hold 200DMA support. Per plan, I bought call options into the decline in anticipation of an &quot;easy money Fed&quot; rebound. That rebound looks unlikely any time soon given the 200DMA breakdown.\" class=\"wp-image-49067\"\/><figcaption>Railroad company Csx (CSX) plunged post-earnings by 10.3%. The stock also failed to hold 200DMA support. Per plan, I bought call options into the decline in anticipation of an &#8220;easy money Fed&#8221; rebound. That rebound looks unlikely any time soon given the 200DMA breakdown.<br><strong>Source: FreeStockCharts<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long ITB calendar call spread, long CSX calls<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My wait for an entry point to buy Lennar (LEN) continues. On a day with multiple warning signs about the U.S. economy from companies like Csx Corp (CSX), the Census Bureau piled on with lukewarm data on housing starts. While single-family housing starts for June increased month-over-month by 3.5% to 847,000, housing starts decreased on &#8230; <a title=\"Lennar Hit Hardest By the Weight of Tepid Housing Starts\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/17\/lennar-hit-hardest-by-weight-of-tepid-housing-starts\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":49063,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59,35,511,62],"tags":[388,2015,1410,78,77],"class_list":["post-49060","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economy","category-housing","category-support","category-technical-analysis","tag-csx","tag-home-builders","tag-housing-starts","tag-len","tag-lennar"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Lennar Hit Hardest By the Weight of Tepid Housing Starts - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/17\/lennar-hit-hardest-by-weight-of-tepid-housing-starts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lennar Hit Hardest By the Weight of Tepid Housing Starts - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"My wait for an entry point to buy Lennar (LEN) continues. On a day with multiple warning signs about the U.S. economy from companies like Csx Corp (CSX), the Census Bureau piled on with lukewarm data on housing starts. While single-family housing starts for June increased month-over-month by 3.5% to 847,000, housing starts decreased on ... 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On a day with multiple warning signs about the U.S. economy from companies like Csx Corp (CSX), the Census Bureau piled on with lukewarm data on housing starts. While single-family housing starts for June increased month-over-month by 3.5% to 847,000, housing starts decreased on ... 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Its close at 200DMA support marks a closing 4-month low."},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/17\/lennar-hit-hardest-by-weight-of-tepid-housing-starts\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Lennar Hit Hardest By the Weight of Tepid Housing Starts"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#website","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/","name":"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","description":"Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":["Person","Organization"],"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0","name":"Dr. Duru","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","width":900,"height":100,"caption":"Dr. Duru"},"logo":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/onetwentytwo","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/","https:\/\/x.com\/drduru"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49060","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49060"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49060\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":49069,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49060\/revisions\/49069"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49063"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49060"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49060"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49060"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}