{"id":48951,"date":"2019-07-07T19:27:30","date_gmt":"2019-07-08T02:27:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=48951"},"modified":"2019-07-07T22:07:59","modified_gmt":"2019-07-08T05:07:59","slug":"leadership-change-turkey-central-bank-means-fresh-lira-weakness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/07\/leadership-change-turkey-central-bank-means-fresh-lira-weakness\/","title":{"rendered":"Leadership Change at Turkey&#8217;s Central Bank Means Fresh Lira Weakness"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The week of trading in foreign exchange began with the shock <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"announcement of a leadership change (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"http:\/\/tcmb.gov.tr\/wps\/wcm\/connect\/en\/tcmb+en\/main+menu\/announcements\/press+releases\/2019\/ano2019-28\" target=\"_blank\">announcement of a leadership change<\/a> at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Murat Uysal, the Deputy Governor since June 9, 2016, was promoted to Governor. Uysal replaced Murat Cetinkaya who had been Governor since April, 2016. Cetinkaya actively resisted calls from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut interest rates. It looks like Cetinkaya paid the price with his job.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<br><script async=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/pagead2.googlesyndication.com\/pagead\/js\/adsbygoogle.js\"><\/script>\n<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" style=\"display:block; text-align:center;\" data-ad-layout=\"in-article\" data-ad-format=\"fluid\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-1196033822186410\" data-ad-slot=\"3478942445\"><\/ins>\n<script>\n     (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});\n<\/script><br>\n\n\n\n<p>The timing of this move coincided with an important technical juncture for the Turkish lira. If not for the fact that the news weakened the lira, I would have suspected the timing was coordinated with the technicals. Both EUR\/TRY and USD\/TRY were testing their respective 200-day moving averages (DMAs) ahead of the news. That support looks like it will hold with tonight&#8217;s moves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1320\" height=\"883\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/190707_USDTRY.png\" alt=\"The U.S. dollar versus the Turkish lira (USD\/TRY) jumped 2.5% at the time of writing in what looks like a successful test of 200DMA support.\" class=\"wp-image-48955\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/190707_USDTRY.png 1320w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/190707_USDTRY-768x514.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1320px) 100vw, 1320px\" \/><figcaption>The U.S. dollar versus the Turkish lira (USD\/TRY) jumped 2.5% at the time of writing in what looks like a successful test of 200DMA support.<br><strong>Source: <\/strong><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"TradingView (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/z9NT4WpZ\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>TradingView<\/strong><\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1320\" height=\"883\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/190707_EURTRY.png\" alt=\"The euro versus the Turkish lira (EUR\/TRY) recovered from a marginal 200DMA breakdown in a move that looks like a successful defense of that critical trendline.\" class=\"wp-image-48954\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/190707_EURTRY.png 1320w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/190707_EURTRY-768x514.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1320px) 100vw, 1320px\" \/><figcaption>The euro versus the Turkish lira (EUR\/TRY) recovered from a marginal 200DMA breakdown in a move that looks like a successful defense of that critical trendline.<br><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/6bO5fyOh\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">TradingView<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Until Uysal does something to directly defend the lira, the path of least resistance points to more weakness for the lira. The statement in the official press release is not nearly enough to reassure markets:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>&#8220;In his first statement as Governor, Mr. Uysal emphasized that the Bank will continue to independently implement monetary policy instruments focused on achieving and maintaining its primary objective of price stability in line with the duties and responsibilities granted to him by law.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>The market should assume that rate cuts are on the way as a part of the package of Erdogan&#8217;s decision to replace Uysal. Moreover, the independence of the CBRT wil come under further scrutiny and questioning and undermine confidence in monetary policy. Perhaps ironically, rate cuts would align Turkey well with the world&#8217;s major central banks who are themselves mostly in retreat on monetary policy as global growth slows down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: long USD\/TRY<br> <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The week of trading in foreign exchange began with the shock announcement of a leadership change at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Murat Uysal, the Deputy Governor since June 9, 2016, was promoted to Governor. Uysal replaced Murat Cetinkaya who had been Governor since April, 2016. Cetinkaya actively resisted calls from &#8230; <a title=\"Leadership Change at Turkey&#8217;s Central Bank Means Fresh Lira Weakness\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/07\/leadership-change-turkey-central-bank-means-fresh-lira-weakness\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,511,62,1417],"tags":[1571,1572,1808,1850,1308,1309],"class_list":["post-48951","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-turkey","tag-cbrt","tag-central-bank-of-the-republic-of-turkey","tag-eurtry","tag-recep-tayyip-erdogan","tag-turkish-lira","tag-usdtry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Leadership Change at Turkey&#039;s Central Bank Means Fresh Lira Weakness - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/07\/07\/leadership-change-turkey-central-bank-means-fresh-lira-weakness\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Leadership Change at Turkey&#039;s Central Bank Means Fresh Lira Weakness - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The week of trading in foreign exchange began with the shock announcement of a leadership change at the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). 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