{"id":48309,"date":"2019-05-20T00:50:27","date_gmt":"2019-05-20T07:50:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=48309"},"modified":"2019-05-20T00:54:15","modified_gmt":"2019-05-20T07:54:15","slug":"show-of-confidence-pultegroup-reloads-buyback-as-stock-hits-key-tests","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/05\/20\/show-of-confidence-pultegroup-reloads-buyback-as-stock-hits-key-tests\/","title":{"rendered":"A Show of Confidence: PulteGroup Reloads Buyback As Stock Hits Key Tests"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Despite the seasonal trends<\/a> working against PulteGroup (PHM), the company last week announced a major reload on its buyback program<\/a>. PulteGroup increased its authorization from $262M to $762M. The quote in the press release emphasized how this action, along with other investments, expresses the company’s solid confidence in the business and the housing market:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

“Driven by the ongoing strength of our homebuilding operations, we ended the first quarter of 2019 in an outstanding financial position with $1.1 billion of cash and $1.8 billion of total available liquidity…Reflecting our constructive view of the housing market, we expect to invest approximately $2.9 billion, inclusive of our recently closed transaction with American West, in land acquisition and development in 2019, which is an increase of approximately 10% over 2018. Strategically investing in our business, repurchasing shares and paying down debt are all consistent with our stated capital-allocation priorities and with our goal of delivering high returns over the housing cycle.” <\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

If the previous quarter is any indication, I do not expect PHM to back up the truck and load up on its stock – at least not at current price levels. In Q1, PHM only spent $25M repurchasing 900K shares at an average price of $27.16. At $32.48, PHM is now worth 1.8x book value<\/a>. Home builders are typically considered fairly valued or even expensive around 2.0x book. So buybacks at this level do not look like a good deal unless the company is about to experience a tremendous growth spurt in the second half of the year. Such growth would be very surprising given Pulte’s guidance for no year-over-year community count growth, Q2 closings down slightly year-over-year, and fewer high margin sales quarter-over-quarter. Pulte is even waiting to see the results of the Spring selling season before giving full-year guidance. (Info all from the Seeking Alpha transcript of the Q1 2019 conference call<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, PHM has a 9 forward and trailing P\/E and a 0.9x price\/sales ratio which I am sure all keeps the stock attractive to value-type investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The challenge ahead for PHM is also technical. The stock trades just under a notable peak from last June. The stock took three weeks after a positive reaction to the Q1 earnings repor<\/a>t to get over the resistance from last July’s price peak. This next obstacle should take even longer assuming the lack of a fresh catalyst. Of course aggressive repurchasing activity would easily push PHM over the hump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Pulte
Pulte Homes (PHM) is already up 25.0% year-to-date as it closes in on a key peak from June, 2018.
Source: FreeStockCharts<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Given the on-going resilience in home builders stocks, I will need to use my next Housing Market Review to re-examine carefully the case for a seasonal top in the housing sector for 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Despite the seasonal trends working against PulteGroup (PHM), the company last week announced a major reload on its buyback program. PulteGroup increased its authorization from $262M to $762M. The quote in the press release emphasized how this action, along with other investments, expresses the company’s solid confidence in the business and the housing market: “Driven … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,35],"tags":[256,2015,1017,1016,1069,257],"class_list":["post-48309","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-housing","tag-buyback","tag-home-builders","tag-phm","tag-pulte-homes","tag-pultegroup","tag-share-repurchase"],"yoast_head":"\nA Show of Confidence: PulteGroup Reloads Buyback As Stock Hits Key Tests - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/05\/20\/show-of-confidence-pultegroup-reloads-buyback-as-stock-hits-key-tests\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Show of Confidence: PulteGroup Reloads Buyback As Stock Hits Key Tests - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Despite the seasonal trends working against PulteGroup (PHM), the company last week announced a major reload on its buyback program. 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