{"id":48130,"date":"2019-05-06T23:34:29","date_gmt":"2019-05-07T06:34:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=48130"},"modified":"2019-05-06T23:57:19","modified_gmt":"2019-05-07T06:57:19","slug":"forex-critical-the-organized-chaos-of-the-turkish-lira","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/05\/06\/forex-critical-the-organized-chaos-of-the-turkish-lira\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Critical: The Organized Chaos of the Turkish Lira"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The British pound (FXB) is not the only currency <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/05\/05\/forex-critical-organized-chaos-of-british-pound\/\">trading in well-defined chaos<\/a>. The Turkish lira stumbled into the week in the wake of the political uncertainty and forex chaos caused by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-05-06\/investors-flee-turkish-lira-as-istanbul-election-rocks-outlook\">the cancellation of the results of Istanbul&#8217;s recent municipal elections<\/a>. USD\/TRY soared at one point about 3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1320\" height=\"883\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/190506_USDTRY.png\" alt=\"The Turkish lira versus the U.S. dollar (USD\/TRY) has risen steadily since a wide swing in late March.\" class=\"wp-image-48131\"\/><figcaption>The Turkish lira versus the U.S. dollar (USD\/TRY) has risen steadily since a wide swing in late March.<br><strong>Source: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/VfS7xzEx\/\"><strong>TradingView.com<\/strong><\/a><br><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>The renewed political uncertainty reportedly comes from an attempt by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to protect his political base of power after losing the capital city of Ankara.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While this political turmoil should continue to roil Turkey&#8217;s fragile financial markets until (and through?) the next election, likely 2 months from now, I decided to take profits on my long USD\/TRY. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/03\/26\/turkish-lira-reverses-weakness-cbrt-gets-more-aggressive\/\">I discussed my trading strategy<\/a> in the wake of late March&#8217;s aggressive actions by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) to battle a sharp bout of weakness. I closed out my position partially in expectation of more interventions. I also want to get more flexible and nimble with future long USD\/TRY positions as the persistent and well-defined uptrend has lasted unusually long. The march higher happened in a distinctly organized way even as chaos could erupt intraday at any time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I am left with my small hedge short EUR\/TRY. I want to hold this as long as possible for the carry it can deliver. I incurred significant costs holding my long USD\/TRY, especially during the wild swings in March marked by little to no liquidity after the close of U.S. trading. I also believe the CBRT directly restricted the ability to trade (really to short) the lira during this time in its attempts to defend the currency. I found out the following day that the market makers ramped up their fees by an order of magnitude during that episode. So, I am leery of such distortions occurring again at any time, but I will hopefully offset at least some of those costs with carry from EUR\/TRY.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Full disclosure: short EUR\/TRY<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The British pound (FXB) is not the only currency trading in well-defined chaos. The Turkish lira stumbled into the week in the wake of the political uncertainty and forex chaos caused by the cancellation of the results of Istanbul&#8217;s recent municipal elections. USD\/TRY soared at one point about 3%. The renewed political uncertainty reportedly comes &#8230; <a title=\"Forex Critical: The Organized Chaos of the Turkish Lira\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/05\/06\/forex-critical-the-organized-chaos-of-the-turkish-lira\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,266,62,1417,920],"tags":[1808,731,1308,1309],"class_list":["post-48130","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","category-government","category-technical-analysis","category-turkey","category-uptrend","tag-eurtry","tag-politics","tag-turkish-lira","tag-usdtry"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forex Critical: The Organized Chaos of the Turkish Lira - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/05\/06\/forex-critical-the-organized-chaos-of-the-turkish-lira\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forex Critical: The Organized Chaos of the Turkish Lira - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The British pound (FXB) is not the only currency trading in well-defined chaos. The Turkish lira stumbled into the week in the wake of the political uncertainty and forex chaos caused by the cancellation of the results of Istanbul&#8217;s recent municipal elections. USD\/TRY soared at one point about 3%. The renewed political uncertainty reportedly comes ... Read more\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/05\/06\/forex-critical-the-organized-chaos-of-the-turkish-lira\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-05-07T06:34:29+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-05-07T06:57:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/05\/190506_USDTRY.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2019\\\/05\\\/06\\\/forex-critical-the-organized-chaos-of-the-turkish-lira\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2019\\\/05\\\/06\\\/forex-critical-the-organized-chaos-of-the-turkish-lira\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr. Duru\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"headline\":\"Forex Critical: The Organized Chaos of the Turkish Lira\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-05-07T06:34:29+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-05-07T06:57:19+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2019\\\/05\\\/06\\\/forex-critical-the-organized-chaos-of-the-turkish-lira\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":367,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2019\\\/05\\\/06\\\/forex-critical-the-organized-chaos-of-the-turkish-lira\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2019\\\/05\\\/190506_USDTRY.png\",\"keywords\":[\"EUR\\\/TRY\",\"politics\",\"Turkish lira\",\"USD\\\/TRY\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Forex\",\"Government\",\"Technical Analysis\",\"Turkey\",\"Uptrend\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2019\\\/05\\\/06\\\/forex-critical-the-organized-chaos-of-the-turkish-lira\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2019\\\/05\\\/06\\\/forex-critical-the-organized-chaos-of-the-turkish-lira\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2019\\\/05\\\/06\\\/forex-critical-the-organized-chaos-of-the-turkish-lira\\\/\",\"name\":\"Forex Critical: The Organized Chaos of the Turkish Lira - 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