{"id":4808,"date":"2011-05-05T04:07:32","date_gmt":"2011-05-05T08:07:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=4808"},"modified":"2011-05-05T04:07:52","modified_gmt":"2011-05-05T08:07:52","slug":"tbt-breaks-down-tip-higher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/05\/05\/tbt-breaks-down-tip-higher\/","title":{"rendered":"TBT Finally Breaks Down, TIP Continues to Grind Upward"},"content":{"rendered":"

I thought TBT’s (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury) successful test of the 200-day moving average (DMA) back in March would mark the beginning of a fresh extended run higher<\/a>. Instead, the declining 50DMA marked the true short-term trend, and, for the second time in a month, TBT failed to break that resistance. At the end of April, TBT finally broke down below the 200DMA, and I suspect that trend line will soon follow the 50DMA downward. <\/p>\n


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\"TBT<\/a>
TBT breaks down<\/figcaption><\/figure>
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It seems that the market is starting to price in economic weakness around the corner, even commodity prices are beginning to limp. This explanation is my assumption by default because I cannot think of (accept?) any other more plausible reason for the declining yields on government bonds with QE2 about to end, and the resulting removal of the artificial prop of the Fed’s buying of bonds. Of course, some have argued that it is exactly because of<\/strong> QE2’s end that yields will go down as investors anticipate weakness in the economy without the Fed’s steady hand at the printing press. (Yes, enough to make one’s head spin!).<\/p>\n

Weaker than expected ISM non-manufacturing numbers<\/a> seemed to confirm the economy is weakening by hitting some ominous milestones:<\/p>\n