{"id":47747,"date":"2019-03-26T22:39:33","date_gmt":"2019-03-27T05:39:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=47747"},"modified":"2019-03-26T22:45:52","modified_gmt":"2019-03-27T05:45:52","slug":"turkish-lira-reverses-weakness-cbrt-gets-more-aggressive","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/03\/26\/turkish-lira-reverses-weakness-cbrt-gets-more-aggressive\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Critical: Turkish Lira Reverses Weakness As CBRT Gets More Aggressive"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The problem with pattern-matching in financial markets is that “THIS TIME<\/b>” could be different. Difference is exactly what happened with my latest trading plan for the Turkish lira (USD\/TRY). The well-constructed plans I described a few days ago<\/a> quickly hit a brick wall, forcing me to pull the cord and adjust those plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) announced on Sunday that it would pull out all the stops to protect “price stability<\/a>.” Those measures were apparently quite effective; indeed, extra<\/strong> effective. As the Turkish lira quickly regained strength, I switched my plans to short some more EUR\/TRY. I decided to ride the position downward, but the move happened a lot faster than I could have imagined. I closed out the position in two steps with the bulk of it happening after EUR\/TRY bounced perfectly off the 6.0 level. Now, I am back to square one as USD\/TRY trades currently below its 50-day moving average and a complete reversal of the March breakout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The U.S. dollar versus the Turkish lira (USD\/TRY) quickly reversed its 200DMA breakout with sellers zipping right past two breakout points and 50DMA support.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"The
The 15-minute view of USD\/TRY shows the near persistence of the pullback. Note the acceleration after the last breakout was reversed.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"The
The euro versus the Turkish lira (EUR\/TRY) bounced off the 6.0 level after slicing through 50DMA support.ac<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: <\/strong>TradingView<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I would prefer to sit on a long position in the Turkish lira (short EUR\/TRY) and collect the large carry, but I do not think economic conditions<\/a> can sustain a stronger currency or the large yield on the currency. Turkey’s reserves continue to drain at a fast clip (the reserves plunged
$6.3B to $28.5B just in the previous two weeks), and the CBRT is sure to face renewed political pressure to ease monetary policy at some point. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

My current positioning assumes that the recent low on USD\/TRY will continue to hold as support. In the meantime, I will be flipping smaller short positions on EUR\/TRY. I am keeping the short positions smaller than the last “phase” of trading so that when the next bout of weakness happens in the lira, I will be more prepared to take profits on my long USD\/TRY.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Full disclosure: long USD\/TRY, short EUR\/TRY<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The problem with pattern-matching in financial markets is that “THIS TIME” could be different. Difference is exactly what happened with my latest trading plan for the Turkish lira (USD\/TRY). The well-constructed plans I described a few days ago quickly hit a brick wall, forcing me to pull the cord and adjust those plans. The Central … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,482,20,62,1417],"tags":[1571,1572,1808,115,1308,1309],"class_list":["post-47747","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-forex","category-technical-analysis","category-turkey","tag-cbrt","tag-central-bank-of-the-republic-of-turkey","tag-eurtry","tag-monetary-policy","tag-turkish-lira","tag-usdtry"],"yoast_head":"\nForex Critical: Turkish Lira Reverses Weakness As CBRT Gets More Aggressive - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2019\/03\/26\/turkish-lira-reverses-weakness-cbrt-gets-more-aggressive\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forex Critical: Turkish Lira Reverses Weakness As CBRT Gets More Aggressive - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The problem with pattern-matching in financial markets is that “THIS TIME” could be different. 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