{"id":46519,"date":"2018-12-19T00:43:31","date_gmt":"2018-12-19T08:43:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=46519"},"modified":"2018-12-19T09:22:58","modified_gmt":"2018-12-19T17:22:58","slug":"sp500-critical-juncture-bad-milestones","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/12\/19\/sp500-critical-juncture-bad-milestones\/","title":{"rendered":"S&P 500: A Critical Juncture Amid Historically Bad Milestones"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

It seems like the odds favor a strong bounce to close the year if only to bring the December drawdown a little closer to historic norms. At least the timing would be right given deep oversold trading conditions<\/a>. Of course, a “reversion to the mean” is not reason enough to expect a strong year-end rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To-date, the S&P 500 (SPY) is down 8.8% for the month of December. This drawdown rivals even this past October where the maximum drawdown of 9.4% on a closing basis was the third worst since 1951<\/a>. If December ended today, it would exactly match the worst December since 1951 which was a 9.4% loss in 1980. The second and third worse Decembers were in 2008 and 1974. Note that just 4 years ago, December delivered a maximum drawdown of 4.6%, the 9th worst since 1951. The subsequent year (2015) was a very volatile year where the S&P 500 churned for over 7 months before suffering a “flash crash” and large sell-off before a bottom in early 2016. (Clearly my next exercise should be to quantify any significant correlations between poor Decembers and the performance of the following year!)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Median
Median and Average Maximum Drawdown on the S&P 500 By Month of the Year (January, 1950 to November, 2018)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

This historic drawdown is also throwing up loud alarm signals for the “200DMA Signal<\/a>.” I created the 200DMA Signal as a relative measure of the severity of a sell-off after the S&P 500’s 200DMA prints its first 5-day loss following an all-time high. This kind of turn has only happened 19 times since 1951; it is a surprisingly extreme kind of event. The last occurrence was on October 24th of this year. At that time, the S&P 500 was off its all-time high by 9.4%. The index is now down 13.1% from its all-time high. If the S&P 500 rallied its way to a new all-time high from this low, the “warning ratio” – the ratio of the drawdown at the time of the turn in the 200DMA and the ultimate closing low before the next all-time high, would be 0.72 (= 9.4\/13.1). This ratio matches the 0.77 warning ratio from the last 200DMA Signal in August, 2015.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The latest 200DMA Signal triggered on 10\/24\/18.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The above table suggests that IF the S&P 500 does not hold a bottom here, then a much larger sell-off will be in play. Nine of the twelve 200DMA Signal episodes with worse (meaning lower) warning ratios delivered ultimate bottoms only after the S&P 500 dropped at least 20% from its all-time high. If this 200DMA Signal has meaning, then the odds are leaning heavily against the S&P 500 right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Starting last week, I discussed the possibility of a fresh wave of selling to start 2019<\/a>. The 200DMA Signal indicates the risks are even higher than I thought just looking at the technical setups. The Federal Reserve’s task in the coming meeting on monetary policy<\/a>\u00a0is also even MORE difficult than I thought!\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"This
This weekly view of the S&P 500 (SPY) highlights the technical importance of this juncture for the S&P 500. The new 2018 closing low opens up the potential for a much larger sell-off, especially given the run-up to this topping pattern was so fast it created only weak “natural” support levels.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Full disclosure: long SSO, long SPY calls<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It seems like the odds favor a strong bounce to close the year if only to bring the December drawdown a little closer to historic norms. At least the timing would be right given deep oversold trading conditions. Of course, a “reversion to the mean” is not reason enough to expect a strong year-end rally. … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[997,1210],"tags":[2108,1751,65,362],"class_list":["post-46519","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sp-500-analysis","category-trading-model","tag-200dma-signal","tag-drawdown","tag-sp-500","tag-spy"],"yoast_head":"\nS&P 500: A Critical Juncture Amid Historically Bad Milestones - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/12\/19\/sp500-critical-juncture-bad-milestones\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"S&P 500: A Critical Juncture Amid Historically Bad Milestones - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It seems like the odds favor a strong bounce to close the year if only to bring the December drawdown a little closer to historic norms. 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