{"id":46222,"date":"2018-11-25T17:48:00","date_gmt":"2018-11-26T01:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=46222"},"modified":"2018-11-25T17:48:00","modified_gmt":"2018-11-26T01:48:00","slug":"t2108-update-181123","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/11\/25\/t2108-update-181123\/","title":{"rendered":"Above the 40 (November 23, 2018) &#8211; Stock Market Barely Avoids Oversold Conditions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>AT40<\/strong> = 27.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)<br \/>\n<strong>AT200<\/strong> = 25.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just above a 32-month low)<br \/>\n<strong>VIX<\/strong> = 21.5<br \/>\n<strong>Short-term Trading Call<\/strong>: neutral<\/p>\n<p><strong>Commentary<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/11\/21\/t2108-update-181120\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Last week on November 20th<\/a>, AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), dropped close to oversold conditions. At the same time, AT200 (T2107), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, dropped to a new 32-month low. With a whole host of poor reactions to company earnings reports, the stock market looked like it was barely holding on.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/giphy.com\/embed\/CtQe9BBgos4U0\" width=\"480\" height=\"360\" frameBorder=\"0\" class=\"giphy-embed\" allowFullScreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/giphy.com\/gifs\/CtQe9BBgos4U0\">via GIPHY<\/a><\/p>\n<p><\/center><\/p>\n<p>The damage in the breadth indicators took a pause after that day. Over two days, AT40 crawled its way from 23.4% to 27.6%. AT200 increased from 24.7% to 26.4% the next day only to end the week at 25.6%. The struggles of the buyers showed up clearly in the major indices, a small divergence with AT40 that set up a very mild bullish divergence (&#8220;very mild&#8221; meaning I do not take comfort in the move).<\/p>\n<p>The S&#038;P 500 (SPY) lost 0.7% to close near a new 7-month closing low. The NASDAQ lost 0.5% but avoided a new multi-month low. The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) ended the week even with its near 7-month closing low as it lost 0.7%.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46259\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46259\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_SP500.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_SP500.png\" alt=\"The S&amp;P 500 (SPY) tried and failed to close its gap down and fell lower through its lower Bollinger Band (BB) channel.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46259\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46259\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The S&#038;P 500 (SPY) tried and failed to close its gap down and fell lower through its lower Bollinger Band (BB) channel.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46257\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46257\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_NASDAQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_NASDAQ.png\" alt=\"The NASDAQ is also falling lower through its lower-BB channel.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46257\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46257\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The NASDAQ is also falling lower through its lower-BB channel.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_46258\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46258\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_QQQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_QQQ.png\" alt=\"The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) faded sharply from its intraday high to close even with its closing low of the week.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46258\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46258\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) faded sharply from its intraday high to close even with its closing low of the week.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The volatility index, the VIX, ended the week off its recent high but is still at an elevated level (above 20).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46256\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46256\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_VIX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_VIX.png\" alt=\"The volatility index, the VIX, rushed higher to start the week and closed the week above 20, at an elevated level.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46256\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46256\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The volatility index, the VIX, rushed higher to start the week and closed the week above 20, at an elevated level.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The stock market is still in desperate need of positive catalysts to break out of this cycle of selling (could the G20 deliver a Hail Mary save?). While another bullish divergence emerged, I am keeping the short-term trading call at neutral. <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/11\/12\/t2108-update-181112\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">I downgraded all the way from bullish to neutral<\/a> a little over two weeks ago because of the 200DMA breakdown for the S&#038;P 500. The trading last week further validated that change. I am still looking for the market to drop into oversold territory to start a fresh bottoming process.<\/p>\n<p><strong>CHART REVIEWS<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Alcoa<\/strong> (AA)<br \/>\nI accumulated AA earlier this year as a small play to try to ride U.S. tariffs designed to protect American aluminum and steel producers. If those tariffs are helping, I hate to consider how much WORSE off these companies would be without the props. AA experienced a fresh breakdown in October and now trades at a 17-month low.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46223\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46223\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_AA.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_AA.png\" alt=\"Alcoa (AA) trades at a 17-month low as part of a 7-month downtrend from its 10-year high.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46223\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46223\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alcoa (AA) trades at a 17-month low as part of a 7-month downtrend from its 10-year high.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Apple<\/strong> (AAPL)<br \/>\nAAPL still acts like an anchor around the market&#8217;s neck. Bad news about iPhone production keeps coming, and the sellers keep selling. With the extended 200DMA breakdown, AAPL looks like it just printed a major top. The August breakout is a distant memory. Tim Cook and company better put that major buyback plan into hyperdrive.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46224\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46224\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_AAPL.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_AAPL.png\" alt=\"Apple (AAPL) continues to fall from its tree with a near 7-month low. More importantly, AAPL has not traded this far below its 200DMA since its near 1-year downtrend from mid-2015 to mid-2016.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46224\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46224\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Apple (AAPL) continues to fall from its tree with a near 7-month low. More importantly, AAPL has not traded this far below its 200DMA since its near 1-year downtrend from mid-2015 to mid-2016.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Amazon.com <\/strong>(AMZN)<br \/>\nAMZN is following a steep downtrend off its last high. The pressure remains on the stock despite a sharp and impressive rebound from a huge gap down early in the week. AMZN sagged to end the week.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46225\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46225\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_AMZN.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_AMZN.png\" alt=\"Amazon.com (AMZN) (re)confirmed its 200DMA breakdown with a 7-month closing low.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46225\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46225\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Amazon.com (AMZN) (re)confirmed its 200DMA breakdown with a 7-month closing low.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Autozone<\/strong> (AZO)<br \/>\nAuto parts stores are trying to hold the banner for retailers. AZO is fractionally off its all-time high.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46226\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46226\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_AZO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_AZO.png\" alt=\"Autozone (AZO) managed to print a new all-time high last week and already looks ready to continue higher.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46226\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46226\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Autozone (AZO) managed to print a new all-time high last week and already looks ready to continue higher.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>O&#8217;Reilly Automotive, Inc.<\/strong> (ORLY)<br \/>\nORLY is helping AZO carry the banner for retail. However, This auto parts retailer may have stalled out below its all-time high.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46237\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46237\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_ORLY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_ORLY.png\" alt=\"O&#039;Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) briefly broke out to another all-time high. Support at the 50DMA is holding so far. \" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46237\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46237\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">O&#8217;Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) briefly broke out to another all-time high. Support at the 50DMA is holding so far.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Best Buy<\/strong> (BBY)<br \/>\nBBY initially gapped down post-earnings, but buyers quickly rushed in. Sellers took over again the next day and left BBY stuck in a downward push through its lower Bollinger Band (BB) channel.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46227\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46227\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_BBY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_BBY.png\" alt=\"Buyers picked Best Buy (BBY) off its post-earnings intraday low, but they are struggling to make any further progress.\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46227\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46227\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Buyers picked Best Buy (BBY) off its post-earnings intraday low, but they are struggling to make any further progress.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>BHP Group<\/strong> (BHP)<br \/>\nBHP gapped down for a 4.0% loss. Overall, BHP is holding up pretty well given the recent sell-offs in commodities. The stock is still holding its recent trading range.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46228\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46228\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_BHP.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_BHP.png\" alt=\"BHP Group (BHP) fell sharply but remains comfortably contained within a its 2018 trading range.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46228\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46228\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">BHP Group (BHP) fell sharply but remains comfortably contained within a its 2018 trading range.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Rio Tinto<\/strong> (RIO)<br \/>\nLike BHP, RIO is doing relatively well considering the current sell-off in commodity prices. Iron ore in particular has tumbled nearly straight down for a week after hitting a topping pattern. I took profits on my put options that were part of the long BHP vs short RIO pairs trade. Ironically, I chose to lean net bullish this round. The BHP calls are very deflated&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46238\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46238\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_RIO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_RIO.png\" alt=\"Rio Tinto (RIO) gapped down 4.4% to close near the bottom of its 4-month trading range.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46238\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46238\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Rio Tinto (RIO) gapped down 4.4% to close near the bottom of its 4-month trading range.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_46261\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46261\" style=\"width: 1569px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181125_ironore.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181125_ironore.jpg\" alt=\"With the latest price plunge, iron ore confirmed another topping pattern. The last top fell short of the double-top that started 2018.\" width=\"1579\" height=\"1023\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46261\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181125_ironore.jpg 1579w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181125_ironore-768x498.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1579px) 100vw, 1579px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46261\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">With the latest price plunge, iron ore confirmed another topping pattern. The last top fell short of the double-top that started 2018.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com.au\/iron-ore-price-china-steel-mill-profits-2018-11\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Business Insider Australia<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Facebook<\/strong> (FB)<br \/>\nFB is a very broken stock at this point. The relentless selling only took a brief break after the October earnings report.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46229\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46229\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_FB.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_FB.png\" alt=\"Facebook (FB) now appears to be on a mission to wipe out all its 2017 gains. The downtrended steepened with the stock hugging its lower Bollinger Band (BB).\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46229\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46229\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Facebook (FB) now appears to be on a mission to wipe out all its 2017 gains. The downtrended steepened with the stock hugging its lower Bollinger Band (BB).<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Alphabet<\/strong> (GOOG)<br \/>\nGOOG&#8217;s downtrending 20DMA is keeping a tight lid on the stock, but GOOG is faring better than other big cap tech stocks. GOOG is holding a trading range in place for the past month or so.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46230\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46230\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_GOOG.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_GOOG.png\" alt=\"Alphabet (GOOG) trades near its 7-month closing low, but the stock has really just churned widely for the past month.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46230\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46230\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Alphabet (GOOG) trades near its 7-month closing low, but the stock has really just churned widely for the past month.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Goldman Sachs<\/strong> (GS)<br \/>\nGS is down 7 of the last 10 trading days. With a 2-year low in place, the GS sell-off looks ever more alarming.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46231\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46231\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_GS.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_GS.png\" alt=\"Goldman Sachs (GS) hit a 2-year low with a 2-week decline of 18.4%.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46231\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46231\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Goldman Sachs (GS) hit a 2-year low with a 2-week decline of 18.4%.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>iShares US Home Construction ETF<\/strong> (ITB)<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/11\/19\/home-builder-sentiment-punctuates-slowdown-in-housing-market\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">The news for home builders is now undeniably bad<\/a>. In a classic contrarian move, the buyers are finally stepping into the stocks of builders. All these stocks need now is a more friendly Federal Reserve&#8230;something I am guessing buyers are trying to anticipate.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46232\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46232\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_ITB.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_ITB.png\" alt=\"The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) managed to gain 2.1% for the week in a display of out-performance that is starting to look like a sustainable bottom.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46232\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46232\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB) managed to gain 2.1% for the week in a display of out-performance that is starting to look like a sustainable bottom.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Kohl&#8217;s Corporation<\/strong> (KSS)<br \/>\nWelcome to <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/10\/03\/retail-rally-screeching-halt\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the top in retailers<\/a>, KSS&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46233\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46233\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_KSS.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_KSS.png\" alt=\"Kohl&#039;s Corporation (KSS) fell victim to the sell-off in big box retailers. The stock gapped down in a post-earnings 200DMA breakdown. The selling resumed on Friday with a fresh 6-month low.\" width=\"550\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46233\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46233\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Kohl&#8217;s Corporation (KSS) fell victim to the sell-off in big box retailers. The stock gapped down in a post-earnings 200DMA breakdown. The selling resumed on Friday with a fresh 6-month low.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Logitech<\/strong> (LOGI)<br \/>\nI expected LOGI to hold its post-earnings low. Last week blew through that hope.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46234\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46234\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_LOGI.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_LOGI.png\" alt=\"Logitech (LOGI) slid to an 18-month low. The stock is down 35% off its all-time high set just 3 months ago.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46234\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46234\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Logitech (LOGI) slid to an 18-month low. The stock is down 35% off its all-time high set just 3 months ago.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Microsoft<\/strong> (MSFT)<br \/>\nWith only 25.6% of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, I was surprised to notice MSFT holding its 200DMA support. This levitation is even more impressive given the near relentless selling pressure being suffered by big cap tech stocks. MSFT is at the top of my buying list when the market launches its next rally.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46235\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46235\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_MSFT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_MSFT.png\" alt=\"Microsoft (MSFT) is one of the last big-cap tech stocks holding the line at its 200DMA support. The stock cracked $100\/share before buyers shot the stock back to 200DMA support.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46235\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46235\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Microsoft (MSFT) is one of the last big-cap tech stocks holding the line at its 200DMA support. The stock cracked $100\/share before buyers shot the stock back to 200DMA support.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Netflix<\/strong> (NFLX)<br \/>\nThe sellers in NFLX returned very quickly after the big rebound. NFLX closed at a 21-month low. I continue to like fading rallies in NFLX.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46236\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46236\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_NFLX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_NFLX.png\" alt=\"Netflix (NFLX) is on an extended losing streak. It ended the week at a 21-month closing low.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46236\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46236\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Netflix (NFLX) is on an extended losing streak. It ended the week at a 21-month closing low.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Sonos<\/strong> (SONO)<br \/>\nSONO had a tremendous post-earnings response, but sellers quickly descended upon the stock. In four more trading days, the gap and crap almost became a new all-time low for this recent IPO. I was one of the post-earnings sellers as I was grateful to have those profits. I bought SONO right back after buyers seemed to return two days later.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46239\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46239\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_SONO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_SONO.png\" alt=\"Sonos (SONO) gapped and crapped after earnings. Now the stock is already back to its all-time low.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46239\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46239\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Sonos (SONO) gapped and crapped after earnings. Now the stock is already back to its all-time low.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Splunk<\/strong> (SPLK)<br \/>\nSPLK turned in an encouraging bounce last week off its intraday low. The buyers held that support. I am not a buyer, however, as earnings are coming up after hours on November 29th. I will be watching closely!<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46240\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46240\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_SPLK.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_SPLK.png\" alt=\"Splunk (SPLK) broke down to a 9-month low before bouncing slightly. The stock&#039;s 200DMA has held as resistance since early October.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46240\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46240\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Splunk (SPLK) broke down to a 9-month low before bouncing slightly. The stock&#8217;s 200DMA has held as resistance since early October.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Square<\/strong> (SQ)<br \/>\nSQ looks like it is breaking down. The stock finally gave up its 200DMA support last week. Here is an example of my creeping bearishness. I sold this stock after holding it a long time. The technicals are breaking down, and I want out before a definitive confirmation of the topping pattern. If the sell-off continues I do not see natural support until around $45; that is a price where I would become a very interested buyer. To the upside, a 50MDA breakout would normally get me interested, but this is not a market strong enough to support breakout buys, especially on expensive and\/or speculative stocks.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46241\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46241\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_SQ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_SQ.png\" alt=\"Square (SQ) finally broke down below its 200DMA support. The sharp bounce from an intraday 6-month low positioned the stock for regaining support, but buyers may be tiring.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46241\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46241\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Square (SQ) finally broke down below its 200DMA support. The sharp bounce from an intraday 6-month low positioned the stock for regaining support, but buyers may be tiring.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Twilio<\/strong> (TWLO)<br \/>\nThe rebirth of TWLO has been impressive. Still, even TWLO succumbed to selling pressure last week. TWLO lost its entire 35.4% post-earnings gain at its intraday low last week. With the stock holding its 50DMA, I have it on my buy list in the case of renewed market strength. <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46242\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46242\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_TWLO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_TWLO.png\" alt=\"Twilio (TWLO) finished reversing its huge post-earnings gains. Can it now hold onto 50DMA support?\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46242\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46242\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Twilio (TWLO) finished reversing its huge post-earnings gains. Can it now hold onto 50DMA support?<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>United States Oil<\/strong> (USO)<br \/>\nI wanted to buy puts in USO last week, but the price just did not seem right. I should have just shorted the shares. USO plunged again on Friday to the tune of a 6.0% gap down loss. The plunge in oil is accompanying the broad sell-off in commodities in what looks like a bad sign for the health of global growth.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46243\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46243\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_USO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_USO.png\" alt=\"The United States Oil (USO) lost another 6.0% and closed at a 13-month low. The selling since the October peak has been near relentless.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46243\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46243\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The United States Oil (USO) lost another 6.0% and closed at a 13-month low. The selling since the October peak has been near relentless.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF<\/strong> (XLE)<br \/>\nNo surprise that XLE is under pressure: XLE is fighting a weakening stock market and a plunge in oil. Friday&#8217;s gap down broke important support and plunged XLE into bearish territory.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46244\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46244\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_XLE.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181123_XLE.png\" alt=\"The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is closing to test its 2017 low set in August that year. The ETF lost another 3.2% alongside the large loss in the price of oil.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46244\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46244\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is closing to test its 2017 low set in August that year. The ETF lost another 3.2% alongside the large loss in the price of oil.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>&#8212; &#8211; &#8212;<br \/>\n<center><br \/>\n<strong>FOLLOW Dr. Duru&#8217;s commentary on financial markets via <a href=\"https:\/\/feedburner.google.com\/fb\/a\/mailverify?uri=onetwentytwo\" target=\"_blank\">email<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/stocktwits.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\">StockTwits<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\" target=\"_blank\">Twitter<\/a>, and even <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/\" target=\"_blank\">Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Above the 40&#8221; uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) to assess the technical health of the stock market and to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Abbreviated as AT40, Above the 40 is an alternative label for &#8220;T2108&#8221; which was created by <a href=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/CURRENTAFPROMO.aspx?AFCODE=866\" target=\"_blank\">Worden<\/a>. Learn more about T2108 on my <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or T2107, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Active AT40 (T2108) periods<\/strong>: Day #16 over 20%, Day #3 under 30% (underperiod), Day #10 under 40%, Day #44 under 50%, Day #60 under 60%, Day #113 under 70%<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<strong>Daily AT40 (T2108)<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"T2108 (DAILY)\" src=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Black line: AT40 (T2108) (% measured on the right)<br \/>\nRed line: Overbought threshold (70%); Blue line: Oversold threshold (20%)<br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<strong>Weekly AT40 (T2108)<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly_s.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"Weekly T2108\" src=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-weekly_s.png\" alt=\"Weekly T2108\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" \/><\/a><br \/>\n*<strong>All charts created using <\/strong><strong><a title=\"Freestockcharts.com\" href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The charts above are my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given AT40 post. For my latest AT40 post <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/tag\/t2108\/\" target=\"_blank\">click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\n<strong>Related links:<\/strong><br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/about\/t2108-resource-page\/\">The AT40 (T2108) Resource Page<\/a><br \/>\nYou can <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/#!\/search\/%23T2108\">follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 or #AT40 hashtags. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using <a href=\"http:\/\/twitter.com\/#!\/search\/%23120trade\" target=\"_blank\">the #120trade hashtag<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long SSO, long UVXY puts, long NFLX put spread, long GOOG calendar put spread, long AMZN calendar put spreads, long QQQ put, long AAPL calls, long AA, long BBY puts, long BHP calls, long FB calls, long ITB calls, long LOGI, long SONO, <\/p>\n<p>*Charting notes: FreeStockCharts.com stock prices are not adjusted for dividends. TradingView.com charts for currencies use Tokyo time as the start of the forex trading day. FreeStockCharts.com currency charts are based on Eastern U.S. time to define the trading day.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AT40 = 27.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 25.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just above a 32-month low) VIX = 21.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Last week on November 20th, AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving &#8230; <a title=\"Above the 40 (November 23, 2018) &#8211; Stock Market Barely Avoids Oversold Conditions\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/11\/25\/t2108-update-181123\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[368,584,1303,483,199,921,548,219,35,599,377,512,338,1311,511,62,1304,982],"tags":[249,250,398,1820,1819,1036,721,631,943,231,208,1206,1755,1294,417,413,405,1122,535,65,2117,1335,362,1749,225,226,1797,538,303,1444],"class_list":["post-46222","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-automotive","category-bollinger-band","category-bottom","category-breakdown","category-commodities","category-downtrend","category-financials","category-high-tech","category-housing","category-internet","category-oil","category-resistance","category-retail","category-software","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-top","category-trading-range","tag-aa","tag-aapl","tag-amzn","tag-at200","tag-at40","tag-azo","tag-bby","tag-bhp","tag-fb","tag-goog","tag-gs","tag-itb","tag-kss","tag-logi","tag-msft","tag-nasdaq","tag-nflx","tag-orly","tag-qqq","tag-sp-500","tag-sono","tag-splk","tag-spy","tag-sq","tag-t2107","tag-t2108","tag-twlo","tag-uso","tag-vix","tag-xle"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Above the 40 (November 23, 2018) - Stock Market Barely Avoids Oversold Conditions - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/11\/25\/t2108-update-181123\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Above the 40 (November 23, 2018) - Stock Market Barely Avoids Oversold Conditions - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"AT40 = 27.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 25.6% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs (just above a 32-month low) VIX = 21.5 Short-term Trading Call: neutral Commentary Last week on November 20th, AT40 (T2108), the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving ... 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