{"id":46071,"date":"2018-11-14T23:26:50","date_gmt":"2018-11-15T07:26:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=46071"},"modified":"2018-11-14T23:26:50","modified_gmt":"2018-11-15T07:26:50","slug":"australian-dollar-another-strong-jobs-report-paints-bullish-hue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/11\/14\/australian-dollar-another-strong-jobs-report-paints-bullish-hue\/","title":{"rendered":"Australian Dollar: Another Strong Jobs Report Paints A Bullish Hue"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It has been a while since I took note of the impact of economic numbers on the Australian dollar (FXA). For most of this year, I have instead been a lot more focused on <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/10\/14\/australian-dollar-japanese-yen-still-useful-sp500-signals\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">what the Australian dollar, combined with the Japanese yen (FXY), might be saying about risk attitudes in financial markets<\/a>. Today, I finally took note of economic drivers. <\/p>\n<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) delivered <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/latestProducts\/6202.0Media%20Release1October%202018\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">another strong jobs report for the Australian economy<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;The trend unemployment rate fell from 5.2 per cent to 5.1 per cent in the month of October 2018&#8230;Today&#8217;s fall in trend unemployment to 5.1 per cent marks the lowest unemployment rate since early 2012. This month is the 25th consecutive monthly increase in employed full-time persons with an average increase of 20,300 employed per month&#8230;&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The Australian dollar jumped in response. The 5-minute chart below of AUD\/JPY shows the immediate pop. The daily chart shows the likely bullishness of this move. So far, it looks like AUD\/JPY confirmed a new 200DMA breakout. The currency pair could be off to the races if it surpasses the highs from last week.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46075\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46075\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181114_AUDJPY-5min.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181114_AUDJPY-5min.png\" alt=\"Most of the pop in AUD\/JPY occurred in the first 5 minutes after the jobs numbers were released. It took over three hours for momentum to start picking up again.\" width=\"550\" height=\"417\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46075\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46075\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Most of the pop in AUD\/JPY occurred in the first 5 minutes after the jobs numbers were released. It took over three hours for momentum to start picking up again.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_46076\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46076\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181114_AUDJPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181114_AUDJPY.png\" alt=\"AUD\/JPY broke out above its 200DMA last week and retested it this week. The jobs numbers helped confirm a successful test.\" width=\"550\" height=\"417\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46076\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46076\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">AUD\/JPY broke out above its 200DMA last week and retested it this week. The jobs numbers helped confirm a successful test.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradingview.com\/x\/M53ItPWq\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Trading View<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, the odds for the next rate hike are far out into the future. So if these economic numbers are harbingers of a strong or strengthening economy, the potential for a rate &#8220;surprise&#8221; must be increasing. In other words, I need to maintain a bullish bias on the Australian dollar as the odds seem to favor a more hawkish statement from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in the near future. I can only imagine how much the Australian dollar could soar whenever trade tensions between the U.S. and China ease. <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_46073\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-46073\" style=\"width: 2006px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181114_ASX30DayInterbankCashRateFutures.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181114_ASX30DayInterbankCashRateFutures.png\" alt=\"The market is not expecting a full 25bps rate hike until February, 2020.\" width=\"2016\" height=\"1284\" class=\"size-full wp-image-46073\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181114_ASX30DayInterbankCashRateFutures.png 2016w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/181114_ASX30DayInterbankCashRateFutures-768x489.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2016px) 100vw, 2016px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-46073\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The market is not expecting a full 25bps rate hike until February, 2020.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.asx.com.au\/prices\/targetratetracker.htm\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">ASX RBA Rate Indicator<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>For now, RBA interest rates remain at historic lows.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long AUD\/JPY, short AUD\/USD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It has been a while since I took note of the impact of economic numbers on the Australian dollar (FXA). For most of this year, I have instead been a lot more focused on what the Australian dollar, combined with the Japanese yen (FXY), might be saying about risk attitudes in financial markets. Today, I &#8230; <a title=\"Australian Dollar: Another Strong Jobs Report Paints A Bullish Hue\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/11\/14\/australian-dollar-another-strong-jobs-report-paints-bullish-hue\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,482,59,20,511,62],"tags":[772,310,60,306,203,197],"class_list":["post-46071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-breakout","category-economy","category-forex","category-support","category-technical-analysis","tag-audjpy","tag-australian-dollar","tag-interest-rate","tag-rba","tag-reserve-bank-of-australia","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Australian Dollar: Another Strong Jobs Report Paints A Bullish Hue - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/11\/14\/australian-dollar-another-strong-jobs-report-paints-bullish-hue\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Australian Dollar: Another Strong Jobs Report Paints A Bullish Hue - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It has been a while since I took note of the impact of economic numbers on the Australian dollar (FXA). For most of this year, I have instead been a lot more focused on what the Australian dollar, combined with the Japanese yen (FXY), might be saying about risk attitudes in financial markets. Today, I ... 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