{"id":44086,"date":"2018-06-06T00:20:09","date_gmt":"2018-06-06T07:20:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=44086"},"modified":"2018-06-06T00:20:09","modified_gmt":"2018-06-06T07:20:09","slug":"time-to-start-nibbling-on-cocoa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/06\/06\/time-to-start-nibbling-on-cocoa\/","title":{"rendered":"Time to Start Nibbling on Cocoa"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I easily forget that just a year ago the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) was struggling at its all-time lows as the price of cocoa suffered through a steep bear market. One month ago, NIB hit a 19-month high after surging off the December test of the all-time lows. Taken together, a pullback to cool off the price action makes sense. Still, even as <a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/05\/30\/fresh-top-in-cocoa\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">I projected an end to the rally in NIB several times during the topping process<\/a>, I am taken aback by the swiftness of the resulting decline. At $27.47, NIB is right back in bear territory with a 19.8% loss from the 19-month high. NIB has retraced more than half of its heady gains from the all-time low to the 19-month high.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_44087\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-44087\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/180605_NIB.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/06\/180605_NIB.png\" alt=\"The iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) has sold off nearly non-stop since reaching a 19-month high. Now the ETN is staring down critical support at its 200DMA.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-44087\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-44087\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) has sold off nearly non-stop since reaching a 19-month high. Now the ETN is staring down critical support at its 200DMA.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>NIB is less than a point away from critical technical support at its 200-day moving average (DMA). This juncture looks like a great point to start nibbling on NIB again. Since I am a secular bull on cocoa &#8211; I am riding the assumption of a long-term uptrend in the demand for chocolate paired with the occasional supply disruptions &#8211; I look for reasons to buy dips. I do not think the current dip will last as long as the tortuous 18-month malaise. Seeing no large and new price-negative catalysts, I assume mostly technical factors are at work. For example, shorts may be reasserting control over trading and\/or buyers are not willing to step into the fray until cocoa production forecasts start to arrive for the 2018-2019 season. Either way, I want to start buying now with a &#8220;no regret&#8221; position: if cocoa turns on a dime, at least I will have a position in play. If the sellers continue pushing prices down, I will happily add to my position at the discounts the market provides.<\/p>\n<p>The latest near-term catalyst comes in the form of weather concerns in Ivory Coast. This time potentially insufficient rains are being blamed. <a href=\"https:\/\/af.reuters.com\/article\/ivoryCoastNews\/idAFL5N1T63MM\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">From Reuters<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Weeks of below-average rainfall in parts of Ivory Coast\u2019s main cocoa regions are raising concerns about the April-to-September mid-crop, farmers said on Monday.<\/p>\n<p>The world\u2019s top cocoa producer is in the midst of the rainy season, and downpours this month are expected to be heavy and regular. But farmers have been concerned about a lack of rain over the past weeks.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The continued sell-off in cocoa prices demonstrates that the market is not nearly as concerned about the weather as some Ivorian farmers may be. So if the rains do come in time, I am assuming such price-negative news is already &#8220;baked in.&#8221; If excessively dry weather ends up hurting cocoa production, look out above&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I easily forget that just a year ago the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) was struggling at its all-time lows as the price of cocoa suffered through a steep bear market. One month ago, NIB hit a 19-month high after surging off the December test of the all-time lows. Taken together, a pullback to &#8230; <a title=\"Time to Start Nibbling on Cocoa\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/06\/06\/time-to-start-nibbling-on-cocoa\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1226,673,511,62,1304],"tags":[1322,1323],"class_list":["post-44086","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-africa","category-agriculture-2","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-top","tag-cocoa","tag-nib"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Time to Start Nibbling on Cocoa - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/06\/06\/time-to-start-nibbling-on-cocoa\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Time to Start Nibbling on Cocoa - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I easily forget that just a year ago the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) was struggling at its all-time lows as the price of cocoa suffered through a steep bear market. One month ago, NIB hit a 19-month high after surging off the December test of the all-time lows. Taken together, a pullback to ... 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