{"id":43691,"date":"2018-05-01T22:41:38","date_gmt":"2018-05-02T05:41:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=43691"},"modified":"2018-05-01T22:42:20","modified_gmt":"2018-05-02T05:42:20","slug":"deconstructing-materials-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/05\/01\/deconstructing-materials-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"Deconstructing Materials Stocks"},"content":{"rendered":"

The deconstruction continues in material stocks. The culprit this time around was a poor reading and interpretation of construction spending. Per AP News<\/a>:<\/p>\n

“U.S. construction spending dropped 1.7 percent in March, the biggest setback in 11 months, with weakness in a number of sectors including the biggest plunge in home building in nine years.<\/p>\n

The March decline was the first monthly drop since last July and the biggest contraction since a 1.8 percent fall in April 2017, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Spending on residential construction was down 3.5 percent, the worst showing since a 4.2 percent decline in April 2009.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

While these numbers seem dire, they lose a lot of significance for me when taken in context. For example, here is the chart of total construction spending since 2000; it makes March’s drop look like a pebble dropping in a lake. (I put all the spending charts on log scale given the wide range in spending from trough to peaks).<\/p>\n


\n
\"Total<\/a>
Total construction spending is on a strong uptrend since the post-recession trough of January, 2011.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Construction Spending [TTLCONS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>; May 1, 2018.<\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Breaking down the picture is a little more informative. Private non-residential construction spending peaked September, 2016 but March’s number was significantly higher than February. <\/p>\n


\n
\"Total<\/a>
Total private non-residential construction spending hit a peak almost two years ago but only just recently broke its uptrend from the trough.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Private Construction Spending: Nonresidential [PNRESCON], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>; May 1, 2018.<\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Private residential construction spending took a nasty tumble in March relative to the peak. Still, relative to the on-going trend, it looks like a blip that is simply taking the numbers down from what looks like a swift pick-up in the trend over the last several months.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Overall,<\/a>
Overall, private residential construction spending still looks very strong.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Total Private Construction Spending: Residential [PRRESCONS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>; May 1, 2018.<\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The overall numbers did not matter for material stocks though as the Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) gapped down and sold down to levels last seen a month ago. Fortunately, buyers stepped into enough of the components to almost close XLB flat on the day.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) almost closed flat after buyers stepped in to save the day.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

A few individual material stocks REALLY got slammed. For example, one of my favorites, U.S. Concrete (USCR) was down as much as 8.8% and a new 18-month low before buyers stepped in. The losses were too great to get back to even though – USCR closed with a 2.7% loss. Today’s response to the construction numbers was the mirror image of the distorted post-earnings move yesterday which took USCR up as much as 9.4% and a test of downtrending 50-day moving average (DMA) resistance before sellers faded the stock all the way to flat. These are some extreme moves for a concrete company that is still reporting strong numbers! I will probably buy my second tranche of USCR and just wish I was on top of the action when it was down even 6%!<\/p>\n


\n
\"U.S.<\/a>
U.S. Concrete (USCR) lost as much a whopping 8.8% before buyers stepped in to salvage a 2.7% loss at the close.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) also lost big on the day. AYI gapped down and lost 4.9%. AYI provides lighting solutions for non-residential building and has struggled for almost two years after hitting an all-time peak. AYI has been reporting challenges in the private non-residential construction market and its peak coincides with the peak in spending in the sector. Still, I am wondering whether selling is finally reaching a crescendo. (Note AYI also announced an acquisition this day that the company said would not impact 2018 results).<\/p>\n


\n
\"Acuity<\/a>
Acuity Bxrands (AYI) dropped to a near 4-year low on the heels of March’s construction spending numbers.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Any way you slice it, investors and traders are on a cliff’s edge with materials stocks. Bad news greases the skids and good news is examined with skeptical scrutiny. It is a tough environment for investing. Still, at least for USCR, as long as I am interpreting the reports as strong, I see opportunity.<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long USCR<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The deconstruction continues in material stocks. The culprit this time around was a poor reading and interpretation of construction spending. Per AP News: “U.S. construction spending dropped 1.7 percent in March, the biggest setback in 11 months, with weakness in a number of sectors including the biggest plunge in home building in nine years. The … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199,59,512,62,1304,920],"tags":[337,1200,1772,985],"class_list":["post-43691","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-economy","category-resistance","category-technical-analysis","category-top","category-uptrend","tag-ayi","tag-construction","tag-uscr","tag-xlb"],"yoast_head":"\nDeconstructing Materials Stocks - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/05\/01\/deconstructing-materials-stocks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Deconstructing Materials Stocks - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The deconstruction continues in material stocks. 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