{"id":42920,"date":"2018-03-03T13:54:11","date_gmt":"2018-03-03T21:54:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=42920"},"modified":"2018-03-03T13:54:11","modified_gmt":"2018-03-03T21:54:11","slug":"maximum-bearishness-for-silver","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/03\/03\/maximum-bearishness-for-silver\/","title":{"rendered":"Maximum Bearishness For Silver?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>For the first time since at least 2008, speculators flipped bearish on silver. <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_42921\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-42921\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/180303_cot-XAG_USD.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/180303_cot-XAG_USD.jpeg\" alt=\"Speculators actually flipped bearish on silver with a net -1,508 contracts.\" width=\"550\" height=\"550\" class=\"size-full wp-image-42921\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-42921\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Speculators actually flipped bearish on silver with a net -1,508 contracts.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oanda.com\/forex-trading\/analysis\/commitments-of-traders\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Speculative net contracts have trended downward for about a year and approached zero in December around the time the Federal Reserve last hiked rates. Yet, I did not think it was &#8220;possible&#8221; for positioning to go net short since it has not happened since at least 2008. So now I am wondering whether this extreme represents &#8220;maximum&#8221; bearishness on silver or is the negative sentiment just getting started? This bearish positioning comes at a time with U.S. interest rates on the march higher and the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) languishing in a near 2-year trading range.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_42922\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-42922\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/180302_SLV.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/180302_SLV.png\" alt=\"The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is in the middle of a 2-year trading range after bottoming in early 2016.\" width=\"520\" height=\"318\" class=\"size-full wp-image-42922\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-42922\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) is in the middle of a 2-year trading range after bottoming in early 2016.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=SLV\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Stockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>What makes the change of sentiment on silver particularly stark is that speculators are still quite bullish on gold.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_42923\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-42923\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/180303_cot-XAU_USD.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/180303_cot-XAU_USD.jpeg\" alt=\"Gold speculators are in the middle of another very bullish cycle on gold. \" width=\"550\" height=\"550\" class=\"size-full wp-image-42923\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-42923\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Gold speculators are in the middle of another very bullish cycle on gold.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oanda.com\/forex-trading\/analysis\/commitments-of-traders\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is also faring better than SLV. GLD bottomed in late 2015 and is trading just a bit off its recent highs.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_42924\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-42924\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/180302_GLD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/180302_GLD.png\" alt=\"The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is still trending higher since the late 2016 low. But the 2016 high has been tough to crack.\" width=\"520\" height=\"318\" class=\"size-full wp-image-42924\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-42924\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is still trending higher since the late 2016 low. But the 2016 high has been tough to crack.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=GLD\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Stockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The result is a GLD\/SLV ratio that is reaching a 2-year high.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_42925\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-42925\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/180302_GLD-SLV.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/03\/180302_GLD-SLV.png\" alt=\"The GLD\/SLV ratio is reaching a level last since in early 2016.\" width=\"520\" height=\"318\" class=\"size-full wp-image-42925\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-42925\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The GLD\/SLV ratio is reaching a level last since in early 2016.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Stockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>At this point, I think a pairs trade is in order going long SLV and short GLD to layer on top of my core positions in both ETFs. While I am loathe to short gold in any form, I think a pairs trade makes sense given the abiding uncertainty around how traders and speculators will position precious metals versus all the macro catalysts in the market: trade wars, rising rates, stronger inflation, stronger global growth, tightening monetary policies, and elevated volatility in financial markets. If the big move is to the upside for precious metals, I think SLV will play serious catch-up and offer outsized upside potential.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long GLD and SLV shares<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For the first time since at least 2008, speculators flipped bearish on silver. Source: Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitments of Traders Speculative net contracts have trended downward for about a year and approached zero in December around the time the Federal Reserve last hiked rates. Yet, I did not think it was &#8220;possible&#8221; for positioning to go &#8230; <a title=\"Maximum Bearishness For Silver?\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/03\/03\/maximum-bearishness-for-silver\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199,62,982],"tags":[1746,1843,200,24,418,25,354],"class_list":["post-42920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-commitments-of-traders","tag-cot","tag-gld","tag-gold","tag-pairs-trade","tag-silver","tag-slv"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Maximum Bearishness For Silver? - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/03\/03\/maximum-bearishness-for-silver\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Maximum Bearishness For Silver? - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"For the first time since at least 2008, speculators flipped bearish on silver. 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