{"id":42130,"date":"2018-01-10T23:39:00","date_gmt":"2018-01-11T07:39:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=42130"},"modified":"2018-01-10T23:39:00","modified_gmt":"2018-01-11T07:39:00","slug":"forex-critical-japanese-yen-on-edge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/01\/10\/forex-critical-japanese-yen-on-edge\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Critical: The Japanese Yen On Edge"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I wrote little about the Japanese yen (FXY) over the past year or more. It&#8217;s time to pay closer attention.<\/p>\n<p>As every forex trader knows by now, on Tuesday, January 9th <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-01-10\/here-s-where-the-boj-may-next-send-a-signal-on-japan-bond-yields\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the Bank of Japan (BoJ) slowed down its purchase of bonds with more than 10 years maturity<\/a>. The yields of these bonds ticked up and only hit one-month highs, but that was enough to send shudders through the market in a scramble to speculate on the BoJ&#8217;s intentions. Given strong economic growth around the globe and a Nikkei that just hit a 26-year high, the BoJ is increasingly the laggard among its peers in monetary policy. The initiation of catch-up could translate into a tremendous rally in the yen. The rally in the yen so far this week is like a prelude of what could happen when a tightening cycle finally gets going. Yet, zooming out, the rally in the yen has so far failed to break new technical ground.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_42135\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-42135\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/180110_USDJPY.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/180110_USDJPY.jpg\" alt=\"The U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen have battled it out in a wide range for much of 2017. Starting in September that range tightened. This week&#039;s rally in the yen has so far stopped neatly on top of the USD\/JPY 200DMA.\" width=\"550\" height=\"479\" class=\"size-full wp-image-42135\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-42135\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen have battled it out in a wide range for much of 2017. Starting in September that range tightened. This week&#8217;s rally in the yen has so far stopped neatly on top of the USD\/JPY 200DMA.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_42134\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-42134\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/180110_GBPJPY.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/180110_GBPJPY.jpg\" alt=\"The British pound has trended upward against the Japanese yen in volatile fashion. The recent rally in the yen stopped neatly on top of the GBP\/JPY 50DMA so far.\" width=\"550\" height=\"481\" class=\"size-full wp-image-42134\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-42134\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The British pound has trended upward against the Japanese yen in volatile fashion. The recent rally in the yen stopped neatly on top of the GBP\/JPY 50DMA so far.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_42133\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-42133\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/180110_AUDJPY.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/180110_AUDJPY.jpg\" alt=\"The Australian dollar broke out against the Japanese yen last month. Unlike other yen pairs, AUD\/JPY has already bounced back sharply with the uptrending 20DMA only briefly punctured.\" width=\"550\" height=\"480\" class=\"size-full wp-image-42133\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-42133\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian dollar broke out against the Japanese yen last month. Unlike other yen pairs, AUD\/JPY has already bounced back sharply with the uptrending 20DMA only briefly punctured.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\nSource: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The stakes are high for a BoJ guessing game on the tightening of monetary policy in Japan. For example, speculators are sitting on a large pile of net short contracts. So it is not surprising that this week&#8217;s reaction to the BoJ&#8217;s bond moves was so sharp and abrupt.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_42131\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-42131\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/180110_cot-USD_JPY.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/180110_cot-USD_JPY.jpeg\" alt=\"Speculators have spent the majority of the last 4+ years net bearish against the Japanese yen. Current positioning remains near the peak in net shorts contracts.\" width=\"550\" height=\"550\" class=\"size-full wp-image-42131\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-42131\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Speculators have spent the majority of the last 4+ years net bearish against the Japanese yen. Current positioning remains near the peak in net shorts contracts.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oanda.com\/forex-trading\/analysis\/commitments-of-traders\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, traders should watch carefully for BoJ news and economic reports. The bond buying will of course receive a lot more scrutiny. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2018-01-10\/here-s-where-the-boj-may-next-send-a-signal-on-japan-bond-yields\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg provided a handy guide for January<\/a> that I reproduce below:<\/p>\n<p>Date, Time(Tokyo): Event<br \/>\nJan. 11, 10:10 a.m.: BOJ bond-buying operation: 1~10 year maturities<br \/>\nJan. 15, 10:10 a.m.:\tBOJ bond-buying operation: maturities of more than 5 years<br \/>\nJan. 15: Kuroda speaks at BOJ branch manager meeting<br \/>\nJan. 17, 10:10 a.m.: BOJ bond-buying operation: 1~5 year maturities<br \/>\nJan. 19, 10:10 a.m.: BOJ bond-buying operation: maturities of more than 5 years<br \/>\nJan. 23, Late a.m. to early p.m.: BOJ policy decision released, along with quarterly economic outlook report<br \/>\nJan. 24, 10:10 a.m.: BOJ bond-buying operation: 1~10 year maturities<br \/>\nJan. 26, 10:10 a.m.: BOJ bond-buying operation: 1~5 year maturities, and more than 10 years<br \/>\nJan. 29, 10:10 a.m.: BOJ bond-buying operation: 5~10 year maturities<br \/>\nJan. 31: Deputy Governor Kikuo Iwata speech and briefing with reporters<br \/>\nJan. 31, 5 p.m.: Bond-purchase plan for coming month released<br \/>\nLate January: Potential appearances from BOJ officials at parliament.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long AUD\/JPY, short GBP\/JPY<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I wrote little about the Japanese yen (FXY) over the past year or more. It&#8217;s time to pay closer attention. As every forex trader knows by now, on Tuesday, January 9th the Bank of Japan (BoJ) slowed down its purchase of bonds with more than 10 years maturity. The yields of these bonds ticked up &#8230; <a title=\"Forex Critical: The Japanese Yen On Edge\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/01\/10\/forex-critical-japanese-yen-on-edge\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456,20],"tags":[772,420,1688,1746,1843,799,513,626,138,454],"class_list":["post-42130","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bonds-2","category-forex","tag-audjpy","tag-bank-of-japan","tag-cftc","tag-commitments-of-traders","tag-cot","tag-eurjpy","tag-fxy","tag-gbpjpy","tag-japanese-yen","tag-usdjpy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forex Critical: The Japanese Yen On Edge - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2018\/01\/10\/forex-critical-japanese-yen-on-edge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forex Critical: The Japanese Yen On Edge - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I wrote little about the Japanese yen (FXY) over the past year or more. It&#8217;s time to pay closer attention. As every forex trader knows by now, on Tuesday, January 9th the Bank of Japan (BoJ) slowed down its purchase of bonds with more than 10 years maturity. The yields of these bonds ticked up ... 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