{"id":41287,"date":"2017-10-24T20:38:40","date_gmt":"2017-10-25T03:38:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=41287"},"modified":"2017-10-24T20:38:40","modified_gmt":"2017-10-25T03:38:40","slug":"forex-critical-us-dollar-vs-mexican-peso-soars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/10\/24\/forex-critical-us-dollar-vs-mexican-peso-soars\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Critical: The U.S. Dollar Vs. Mexican Peso Soars To An Important Level"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Against the U.S. dollar, the Mexican peso, USD\/MXN, has left its 15-month low in the dust. For the past month, USD\/MXN has neatly followed its upper-Bollinger Bands (BBs) straight through a bullish confirmation of a 50DMA breakout and then a bullish breakout above its 200-day moving average (DMA).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_41288\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-41288\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/171024_USDMXN.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/171024_USDMXN.jpg\" alt=\"The U.S. dollar versus the Mexican peso has been on a tear over the past month (USD\/MXN).\" width=\"550\" height=\"482\" class=\"size-full wp-image-41288\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-41288\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The U.S. dollar versus the Mexican peso has been on a tear over the past month (USD\/MXN).<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Most importantly, USD\/MXN has now erased the losses from the last two rate hikes from the Bank of Mexico. USD\/MXN now trades back to where it was in the April\/May congestion period when the peso churned over NAFTA concerns and the May rate hike. If USD\/MXN punches through the horizontal line in the chart above, there will again be little resistance to impede further upside. After such a breakout, the next level to watch is the 20.2 area around the bottom of the approximate head and shoulders (H&#038;S) pattern that marked the 2017 top for USD\/MXN (not shown in the above chart).<\/p>\n<p>I was correct to <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/08\/25\/forex-critical-mexican-peso-canadian-dollar-on-shorter-leashes\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">put the Mexican peso on a &#8220;short leash&#8221;<\/a> two months ago. Here, I am betting that the current run-up will lose steam as the carry trade begins to look more and more attractive. The stop is of course above 19.30 or so.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_41289\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-41289\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/171024_cot-USD_MXN.jpeg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/171024_cot-USD_MXN.jpeg\" alt=\"Speculators are not as bullish on the Mexican peso as they were over the summer, but sentiment still sits at the peak of the last bullish cycle.\" width=\"550\" height=\"550\" class=\"size-full wp-image-41289\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-41289\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Speculators are not as bullish on the Mexican peso as they were over the summer, but sentiment still sits at the peak of the last bullish cycle.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oanda.com\/forex-trading\/analysis\/commitments-of-traders\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: short USD\/MXN<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Against the U.S. dollar, the Mexican peso, USD\/MXN, has left its 15-month low in the dust. For the past month, USD\/MXN has neatly followed its upper-Bollinger Bands (BBs) straight through a bullish confirmation of a 50DMA breakout and then a bullish breakout above its 200-day moving average (DMA). Source: FreeStockCharts.com Most importantly, USD\/MXN has now &#8230; <a title=\"Forex Critical: The U.S. Dollar Vs. Mexican Peso Soars To An Important Level\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/10\/24\/forex-critical-us-dollar-vs-mexican-peso-soars\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,482,20,1853,512,62,920],"tags":[1881,1842,1841],"class_list":["post-41287","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-breakout","category-forex","category-mexico","category-resistance","category-technical-analysis","category-uptrend","tag-banco-de-mexico","tag-mexican-peso","tag-usdmxn"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forex Critical: The U.S. Dollar Vs. 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