{"id":40613,"date":"2017-08-24T01:07:36","date_gmt":"2017-08-24T08:07:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=40613"},"modified":"2017-08-24T01:07:36","modified_gmt":"2017-08-24T08:07:36","slug":"brazils-big-comeback-ewz-breaks-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/08\/24\/brazils-big-comeback-ewz-breaks-out\/","title":{"rendered":"Brazil&#8217;s Big Comeback: EWZ Breaks Out"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>What a difference three months makes.<\/p>\n<p>On May 18th, I wrote &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/05\/18\/trading-panic-rushing-past-exit-from-brazil\/\" target=\"_blank\">Trading Panic: Rushing Past the Exit from Brazil<\/a>&#8221; to explain why I bought the big dip in iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) after Brazilian President Michel Temer was accused of bribery. I greatly under-estimated the upside opportunity at the time, and I find myself with no position on as EWZ continues a convincing turn-around with a breakout above a years-long downtrend.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_40614\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-40614\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/170823_EWZ.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/170823_EWZ.png\" alt=\"The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) is up 22.4% since the bribery-triggered sell-off. Buyers have pushed EWZ through a downtrend in place since 2010.\" width=\"550\" height=\"521\" class=\"size-full wp-image-40614\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-40614\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) is up 22.4% since the bribery-triggered sell-off. Buyers have pushed EWZ through a downtrend in place since 2010.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_40615\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-40615\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/170823_EWZ-weekly.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/08\/170823_EWZ-weekly.png\" alt=\"This weekly view of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) shows an approximate downtrending channel from 2010-2015 where the top line stayed in place as resistance until today&#039;s (Aug 23rd) breakout.\" width=\"550\" height=\"524\" class=\"size-full wp-image-40615\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-40615\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">This weekly view of iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) shows an approximate downtrending channel from 2010-2015 where the top line stayed in place as resistance until today&#8217;s (Aug 23rd) breakout.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>My clue should have come on June 26th <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-brazil-corruption-temer-idUSKBN19H2PG\" target=\"_blank\">when Temer was officially charged with corruption<\/a>. EWZ barely budged and did not even come close to challenging the May low. That trading action was an early sign that the market was beginning the process of forgetting; it was a classic opportunity to buy the dip preceding the charges. So when (on August 2nd) Temer trounced his political opponents by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/the_americas\/brazilian-congress-to-vote-on-removing-the-second-president-in-a-year\/2017\/08\/02\/d384f720-76e9-11e7-8c17-533c52b2f014_story.html?utm_term=.572d60414bde\" target=\"_blank\">convincing Brazil&#8217;s lower house of Congress to block a corruption trial<\/a>, EWZ was already close to finishing a complete reversal of May&#8217;s gap down. Today&#8217;s breakout is now the continuation of the momentum that was in place before the bribery scandal broke.<\/p>\n<p>My key lesson here is to stay closely attached to stories that have such a dramatic impact on trading, especially when I appear to have made the correct call on the ultimate resolution! Since I assumed EWZ would remain weakened and would offer at least one or two more buy-the-dip opportunities, I was far too slow in updating my technical assessment. The post-bribery high on a gap up and breakout above BOTH the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs) on July 12th should have served as my last boarding call.<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no position<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>What a difference three months makes. On May 18th, I wrote &#8220;Trading Panic: Rushing Past the Exit from Brazil&#8221; to explain why I bought the big dip in iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) after Brazilian President Michel Temer was accused of bribery. I greatly under-estimated the upside opportunity at the time, and I find &#8230; <a title=\"Brazil&#8217;s Big Comeback: EWZ Breaks Out\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/08\/24\/brazils-big-comeback-ewz-breaks-out\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[181,482,921,62],"tags":[183,1916,1858],"class_list":["post-40613","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brazil","category-breakout","category-downtrend","category-technical-analysis","tag-ewz","tag-ishares-msci-brazil-capped-etf","tag-michel-temer"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Brazil&#039;s Big Comeback: EWZ Breaks Out - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/08\/24\/brazils-big-comeback-ewz-breaks-out\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Brazil&#039;s Big Comeback: EWZ Breaks Out - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"What a difference three months makes. On May 18th, I wrote &#8220;Trading Panic: Rushing Past the Exit from Brazil&#8221; to explain why I bought the big dip in iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (EWZ) after Brazilian President Michel Temer was accused of bribery. I greatly under-estimated the upside opportunity at the time, and I find ... 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