{"id":40262,"date":"2017-07-28T23:38:15","date_gmt":"2017-07-29T06:38:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=40262"},"modified":"2017-07-28T23:38:15","modified_gmt":"2017-07-29T06:38:15","slug":"silver-faces-first-test-of-latest-relief-rally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/07\/28\/silver-faces-first-test-of-latest-relief-rally\/","title":{"rendered":"Silver Faces Down the First Test Of Its Latest Relief Rally"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I clearly took profits on <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/07\/07\/t2108-update-170707\/\" target=\"_blank\">my relief rally trade<\/a> in iShares Silver Trust (SLV) too early.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_40263\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-40263\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170728_SLV.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170728_SLV.png\" alt=\"The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) stares down a critical test at its downtrending 50-day moving average (DMA)\" width=\"550\" height=\"424\" class=\"size-full wp-image-40263\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-40263\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) stares down a critical test at its downtrending 50-day moving average (DMA)<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>While SLV wrestles with resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA), the silver ETF sits on top of a 7.3% gain since hitting a 15-month low three weeks ago. Given SLV was able to power through the latest statement on monetary policy from the U.S. Federal Reserve, I strongly suspect SLV has more room to the upside. The next target for SLV is its downtrending 200DMA.<\/p>\n<p>There is an irony in this move. Silver speculators completed a near full retreat from their net long contracts just as the price of silver bottomed. I am afraid they may be waking back up just at the wrong time. The latest CFTC report on the Commitments of Traders shows net long contracts increased week-over-week for the first time since June 5th.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_40265\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-40265\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170728_cot-XAG_USD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170728_cot-XAG_USD.png\" alt=\"Silver speculators finally woke up in the past week. Are they too late?\" width=\"550\" height=\"550\" class=\"size-full wp-image-40265\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-40265\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Silver speculators finally woke up in the past week. Are they too late?<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oanda.com\/forex-trading\/analysis\/commitments-of-traders\" target=\"_blank\">Oanda&#8217;s CFTC Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Since it should take several more weeks for (now tentative?) speculators to get back to or near the &#8220;full bull&#8221; levels that dominated just a little over three months ago, I think silver gets another driver for more upside. So in the coming trading week, I will return to speculating on some SLV call options as a trade around my core SLV position.<\/p>\n<p>Silver&#8217;s surge off the latest low has put it back on track for an inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar index (DXY0). The dollar made a (marginal) fresh 13-month low to close the week. Hard to imagine that not too long ago the dollar was at a 14-year high.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_40267\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-40267\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170728_DXY0.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170728_DXY0.png\" alt=\"The U.S. dollar&#039;s downtrend from its 14-year remains well-intact.\" width=\"550\" height=\"398\" class=\"size-full wp-image-40267\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-40267\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The U.S. dollar&#8217;s downtrend from its 14-year remains well-intact.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long SLV<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I clearly took profits on my relief rally trade in iShares Silver Trust (SLV) too early. Source: FreeStockCharts.com While SLV wrestles with resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA), the silver ETF sits on top of a 7.3% gain since hitting a 15-month low three weeks ago. Given SLV was able to power through the &#8230; <a title=\"Silver Faces Down the First Test Of Its Latest Relief Rally\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/07\/28\/silver-faces-first-test-of-latest-relief-rally\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199,20,512,62,21],"tags":[1688,1746,1843,299,25,354,1838],"class_list":["post-40262","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-forex","category-resistance","category-technical-analysis","category-u-s-dollar","tag-cftc","tag-commitments-of-traders","tag-cot","tag-dxy0","tag-silver","tag-slv","tag-u-s-dollar-index"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Silver Faces Down the First Test Of Its Latest Relief Rally - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/07\/28\/silver-faces-first-test-of-latest-relief-rally\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Silver Faces Down the First Test Of Its Latest Relief Rally - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I clearly took profits on my relief rally trade in iShares Silver Trust (SLV) too early. 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