{"id":4013,"date":"2011-02-10T01:45:32","date_gmt":"2011-02-10T06:45:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=4013"},"modified":"2011-02-10T01:45:32","modified_gmt":"2011-02-10T06:45:32","slug":"chart-review-tip-tbt-ewz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/02\/10\/chart-review-tip-tbt-ewz\/","title":{"rendered":"Chart Review: TIP, TBT, EWZ"},"content":{"rendered":"

While the general stock market just keeps crawling steadily upward, individual stocks continue to produce some very interesting, and very tradable charts. For example, over the past several months, I have been able to identify many valuable breakouts<\/a> as well as some breakdowns<\/a>. The three charts in this post are not directly related, but I am combining them here for convenience. I may do more of these in the future <\/p>\n

iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (TIP)<\/strong>
\nWhen I first ventured into TIPS, I thought it had a very simple relationship to inflation expectations: an increase in the price of TIPS equals an increase in inflation expectations. But when TIP reached multi-year highs for the first time last summer, a debate about the meaning of the price move ensued<\/a> that taught me that the dynamics of TIPS are not quite that simple. I sold my holdings into that debate (and into the Federal Reserve’s TIPS-buying program), figuring that the downside risks far outweighed the upside opportunity. <\/p>\n

TIP continued to rise almost 5% before peaking two months later. Fast forward another four months and TIP has finally dipped below my selling price after breaking down from key technical levels. I finally decided to buy into this dip on Wednesday (after commissions, I think I saved only a small amount of money while missing out on additional dividend payouts). When I rolled into TIP during the first round, I was buying simplistic inflation protection. This time around, I am looking for some inflation protection, but I am also positioning for what I think will eventually be another rally in these bonds. If I am fortunate enough to get much lower prices, I will “back up the truck” as they say. At a 2.47% yield, I am also fine just sitting in the current position if TIP goes nowhere for months on end. Most importantly, I am getting more serious about implementing some more diversification for the portfolio, similar to my decision to finally buy some, gasp, muni bonds<\/a> (it helps that I have a friend who keeps pestering me about this!)<\/p>\n

(Click image for larger view)<\/strong><\/em>
\n


\n
\"TIP<\/a>
TIP is breaking down but could find some support at current levels<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT)<\/strong>
\nThe apparent top in bonds has perhaps produced one of the better and more precise timing calls in a long while<\/a>, at least since the small group of folks who called for a bottom in stocks in late March, 2009 (even the President nailed that bottom<\/a>). <\/p>\n

I missed that bottom in stocks, but I was chomping at the bit for the top in bonds. The ride in TBT, the inverse of long-dated Treasuries, has been a great one. With over a 33% gain from its bottom in late August and confirmed bottom in October, TBT is actually out-performing the S&P 500’s 27% gain from the moment Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke announced the printing presses were warming up again. When TBT soared on record one-day volume following the Fed’s official announcement of QE2<\/a> in November, the bottom in TBT looked firmly secured.<\/p>\n

At this point, I am thinking TBT has perhaps one more run left before the downside risks discourage me from trying to wait out any further upside opportunity. TBT broke out to fresh eight-month highs this month, so the next rally may have already started. Regardless, I am looking for the point to sell, rather than buy….although I have found a good number of short-term trading opportunities in the day-to-day and intraday volatility of TBT. <\/p>\n

(Click image for larger view)<\/strong><\/em>
\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The latest breakout for TBT may have signaled another coming rally<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF (EWZ)<\/strong>
\nWhen EWZ first broke below its 200-day moving average (DMA) in late January, I speculated that the bounce in EWZ would be temporary<\/a>. On Wednesday, EWZ confirmed my suspicions and finally closed below its 200DMA. EWZ is now about 13% below its closing peak from November, 2010. I am now looking to revive the “20% correction” strategy for buying EWZ<\/a>. This strategy implies a buy on EWZ around $65. Given potential support at $66, I may buy a little early (assuming EWZ does indeed trade down this low). I still like Brazil as my favorite emerging market play, but the risks in Brazil are higher than ever as a new President has taken office, inflation is on the rise, and the country struggles with controlling capital inflows.<\/p>\n

(Click image for larger view)<\/strong><\/em>
\n


\n
\"EWZ<\/a>
EWZ has broken down and could be headed toward another 20% correction<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n*All charts created using TeleChart:<\/strong> <\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long TIP, TBT, and MUB. Long SSO puts.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

While the general stock market just keeps crawling steadily upward, individual stocks continue to produce some very interesting, and very tradable charts. For example, over the past several months, I have been able to identify many valuable breakouts as well as some breakdowns. The three charts in this post are not directly related, but I … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456,181,483,482,58,347,62],"tags":[183,88,361,444,443,1597,87],"class_list":["post-4013","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bonds-2","category-brazil","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-federal-reserve","category-fixed-income","category-technical-analysis","tag-ewz","tag-ishares-barclays-tips-bond-fond","tag-ishares-msci-brazil-index-fund-etf","tag-proshares-ultrashort-20-year-treasury","tag-tbt","tag-technical-analysis","tag-tip"],"yoast_head":"\nChart Review: TIP, TBT, EWZ - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/02\/10\/chart-review-tip-tbt-ewz\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Chart Review: TIP, TBT, EWZ - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"While the general stock market just keeps crawling steadily upward, individual stocks continue to produce some very interesting, and very tradable charts. 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