{"id":40125,"date":"2017-07-16T15:53:14","date_gmt":"2017-07-16T22:53:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=40125"},"modified":"2017-07-16T15:53:14","modified_gmt":"2017-07-16T22:53:14","slug":"forex-critical-speculators-ride-wave-against-yen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/07\/16\/forex-critical-speculators-ride-wave-against-yen\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Critical: Speculators Ride the Wave Against the Japanese Yen"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Japanese yen (FXY) is the one major currency that has been notably weaker than the U.S. dollar for most of the past month. USD\/JPY peaked in December, 2016, but it looks like the sell-off bottomed out in April.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_40129\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-40129\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170716_USDJPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170716_USDJPY.png\" alt=\"Against the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen was never able to reverse the Trump bump as other currencies did. USD\/JPY last bottomed in April.\" width=\"550\" height=\"498\" class=\"size-full wp-image-40129\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-40129\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Against the U.S. dollar, the Japanese yen was never able to reverse the Trump bump as other currencies did. USD\/JPY last bottomed in April.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>This yen weakness has been particularly evident against strong currencies, like the euro (FXE), where April formed a sharp and abrupt trough.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_40128\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-40128\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170716_EURJPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170716_EURJPY.png\" alt=\"Against the euro, the Japanese yen has suffered mightily. EUR\/JPY now trades at a 17-month high.\" width=\"550\" height=\"496\" class=\"size-full wp-image-40128\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-40128\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Against the euro, the Japanese yen has suffered mightily. EUR\/JPY now trades at a 17-month high.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Speculators have finally seen enough. Since speculators last flipped from net bulls to net bears in December, April turned into the trough of bearish sentiment. Speculators re-accumulated net shorts slowly but surely until the latest week. Speculators rushed for shorts to the tune of -112,125 contracts, a level last seen in June, 2015. Net short contracts were -75,036 the previous week.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_40126\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-40126\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170716_cot-USD_JPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170716_cot-USD_JPY.png\" alt=\"Speculators ramped up bets against the Japanese yen to levels last seen a little over two years ago (June, 2015).\" width=\"550\" height=\"550\" class=\"size-full wp-image-40126\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-40126\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Speculators ramped up bets against the Japanese yen to levels last seen a little over two years ago (June, 2015).<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oanda.com\/forex-trading\/analysis\/commitments-of-traders\" target=\"_blank\">Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>This extended weakness caught me by surprise, but it makes sense give the Bank of Japan&#8217;s willingness to remain quite dovish even as other major central banks begin to turn their backs on further monetary easing. The Bank of Japan delivered the market a stern reminder that it is not ready for higher bond yields when on July 7th, the BoJ announced &#8220;it would buy an unlimited number of 10-year JGBs at a yield of 0.110 percent, and it increased the size of its regular buying of five- to 10-year JGBs by 50 billion yen ($439.96 million) to 500 billion yen&#8230;&#8221; (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2017\/07\/06\/boj-draws-line-in-the-sand-hitting-currencies-oil-and-bonds.html\" target=\"_blank\">see CNBC<\/a>). The 30-year and 40-year JGBs had hit yields not seen since since February of 2016. Even the 10-year had crept up to a 5-month high. Clearly, the market was trying to anticipate a (marginally) more hawkish BoJ given Japan&#8217;s relatively good economic performance and the global environment of tightening central banks.<\/p>\n<p>I have been more focused on reasons to get long the yen, especially as a hedge against bullish sentiment in financial markets. However, the BoJ&#8217;s action convinced me to stand down a bit and focus on more shorting opportunities. While there is likely not a lot more room for speculators to get even more bearish on the yen, I also do not expect them to retreat anytime soon. For example, the yen looks too good as a funding currency for carry trades. From a technical standpoint, I love shorting the yen against the euro the most. It helps that I remain a euro-bull.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net long the Japanese yen, long the euro<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Japanese yen (FXY) is the one major currency that has been notably weaker than the U.S. dollar for most of the past month. USD\/JPY peaked in December, 2016, but it looks like the sell-off bottomed out in April. Source: FreeStockCharts.com This yen weakness has been particularly evident against strong currencies, like the euro (FXE), &#8230; <a title=\"Forex Critical: Speculators Ride the Wave Against the Japanese Yen\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/07\/16\/forex-critical-speculators-ride-wave-against-yen\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1303,921,20,204,62,920],"tags":[1688,1746,1843,799,28,513,138,454],"class_list":["post-40125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bottom","category-downtrend","category-forex","category-japan","category-technical-analysis","category-uptrend","tag-cftc","tag-commitments-of-traders","tag-cot","tag-eurjpy","tag-euro","tag-fxy","tag-japanese-yen","tag-usdjpy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forex Critical: Speculators Ride the Wave Against the Japanese Yen - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/07\/16\/forex-critical-speculators-ride-wave-against-yen\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forex Critical: Speculators Ride the Wave Against the Japanese Yen - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Japanese yen (FXY) is the one major currency that has been notably weaker than the U.S. dollar for most of the past month. 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