{"id":39983,"date":"2017-07-03T12:57:21","date_gmt":"2017-07-03T19:57:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=39983"},"modified":"2017-07-03T12:57:58","modified_gmt":"2017-07-03T19:57:58","slug":"forex-critical-us-dollar-finally-gets-relief-ism-manufacturing-rescue","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/07\/03\/forex-critical-us-dollar-finally-gets-relief-ism-manufacturing-rescue\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Critical: The U.S. Dollar Finally Gets Relief &#8211; ISM Manufacturing to the Rescue"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>It was a holiday shortened trading day in the U.S., but it was enough time to deliver a bit of relief for the U.S. dollar index (DXY0). <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_39986\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-39986\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170703_DXY0.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170703_DXY0.png\" alt=\"The U.S. dollar index (DXY0) bounced sharply off a 9-month low.\" width=\"550\" height=\"401\" class=\"size-full wp-image-39986\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-39986\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The U.S. dollar index (DXY0) bounced sharply off a 9-month low.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The most significant move for the U.S. dollar was against the ever-weakening Japanese yen (FXY). USD\/JPY broke out and stayed above resistance at its uptrending 200-day moving average (DMA). <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_39987\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-39987\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170703_USDJPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170703_USDJPY.png\" alt=\"The U.S. dollar hurdled over 200DMA resistance against the Japanese yen. The May high for USD\/JPY should get tested.\" width=\"550\" height=\"400\" class=\"size-full wp-image-39987\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-39987\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The U.S. dollar hurdled over 200DMA resistance against the Japanese yen. The May high for USD\/JPY should get tested.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>However, I most like playing the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar (FXC) for a short-term relief bounce. Oil has had a sharp surge from recent lows, so &#8220;gravity&#8221; alone should soon generate some kind of pullback. That pullback should further boost USD\/CAD.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_39988\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-39988\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170703_USDCAD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170703_USDCAD.png\" alt=\"The Canadian dollar has really slammed the U.S. dollar lately. Comeback time for USD\/CAD.\" width=\"550\" height=\"401\" class=\"size-full wp-image-39988\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-39988\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Canadian dollar has really slammed the U.S. dollar lately. Comeback time for USD\/CAD.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_39990\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-39990\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170703_USO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170703_USO.png\" alt=\"A sharp relief rally in oil prices has propelled the United States Oil Fund (USO) to a 10% gain in less than 2 weeks.\" width=\"550\" height=\"427\" class=\"size-full wp-image-39990\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-39990\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A sharp relief rally in oil prices has propelled the United States Oil Fund (USO) to a 10% gain in less than 2 weeks.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Here is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org\/ismreport\/mfgrob.cfm?SSO=1\" target=\"_blank\">what the ISM reported<\/a> (emphasis mine):<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;The June PMI\u00ae registered 57.8 percent, an increase of 2.9 percentage points from the May reading of 54.9 percent. The New Orders Index registered 63.5 percent, an increase of 4 percentage points from the May reading of 59.5 percent. The Production Index registered 62.4 percent, a 5.3 percentage point increase compared to the May reading of 57.1 percent. The Employment Index registered 57.2 percent, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the May reading of 53.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries index registered 57 percent, a 3.9 percentage point increase from the May reading of 53.1 percent. The Inventories Index registered 49 percent, a decrease of 2.5 percentage points from the May reading of 51.5 percent. The Prices Index registered 55 percent in June, a decrease of 5.5 percentage points from the May reading of 60.5 percent, indicating higher raw materials\u2019 prices for the 16th consecutive month, but at a slower rate of increase in June compared with May. <strong>Comments from the panel generally reflect expanding business conditions; with new orders, production, employment, backlog and exports all growing in June compared to May and with supplier deliveries and inventories struggling to keep up with the production pace.<\/strong>&#8220;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The ISM also noted that the economy grew for the 97th straight month.<\/p>\n<p>I trust that it was indeed strong economic data that drove the action because U.S. Treasury yields increased again. For example, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) dropped to critical support at converged 50 and 200DMAs. My low ball order to add to my TLT call options did not fill thanks to the small bounce off support.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_39989\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-39989\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170703_TLT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/07\/170703_TLT.png\" alt=\"The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) neatly tested converged 50\/200DMA support and bounced.\" width=\"550\" height=\"422\" class=\"size-full wp-image-39989\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-39989\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) neatly tested converged 50\/200DMA support and bounced.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source of charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>It is interesting to see again, finally, U.S. dollar strength alongside higher rates. Let&#8217;s see how long either one lasts&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long USD\/CAD, long TLT call options, short USO put options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It was a holiday shortened trading day in the U.S., but it was enough time to deliver a bit of relief for the U.S. dollar index (DXY0). The most significant move for the U.S. dollar was against the ever-weakening Japanese yen (FXY). USD\/JPY broke out and stayed above resistance at its uptrending 200-day moving average &#8230; <a title=\"Forex Critical: The U.S. Dollar Finally Gets Relief &#8211; ISM Manufacturing to the Rescue\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/07\/03\/forex-critical-us-dollar-finally-gets-relief-ism-manufacturing-rescue\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,59,20,377,512,511,62,21,920],"tags":[299,1776,1888,280,1838,469,454,538],"class_list":["post-39983","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakout","category-economy","category-forex","category-oil","category-resistance","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-u-s-dollar","category-uptrend","tag-dxy0","tag-ism","tag-ism-manufacturing","tag-tlt","tag-u-s-dollar-index","tag-usdcad","tag-usdjpy","tag-uso"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forex Critical: The U.S. Dollar Finally Gets Relief - ISM Manufacturing to the Rescue - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/07\/03\/forex-critical-us-dollar-finally-gets-relief-ism-manufacturing-rescue\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forex Critical: The U.S. Dollar Finally Gets Relief - ISM Manufacturing to the Rescue - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It was a holiday shortened trading day in the U.S., but it was enough time to deliver a bit of relief for the U.S. dollar index (DXY0). 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