{"id":39832,"date":"2017-06-23T01:33:22","date_gmt":"2017-06-23T08:33:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=39832"},"modified":"2017-06-23T01:33:22","modified_gmt":"2017-06-23T08:33:22","slug":"thematic-trump-trade-comes-to-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/06\/23\/thematic-trump-trade-comes-to-end\/","title":{"rendered":"A Thematic Trump Trade Comes To An End"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>One by one Trump Trades have unwound and completely reversed all their gains (or losses) since the U.S. Presidential election last November. I find the end of this particular Trump Trade particularly thematic.<\/p>\n<p>On June 21, 2017, the VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) completed a full reversal of its gain since the election of Donald Trump.<\/p>\n<p><center><figure id=\"attachment_39833\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-39833\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_RSX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_RSX.png\" alt=\"The VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) is down 12.8% year-to-date a day after reversing its post-election gains.\" width=\"550\" height=\"515\" class=\"size-full wp-image-39833\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_RSX.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_RSX-300x281.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-39833\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) is down 12.8% year-to-date a day after reversing its post-election gains.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The horizontal line in the graph above represents the closing price of RSX on election day. I realize observers may quibble with my timing of RSX&#8217;s reversal. After all, RSX gapped higher the day after the election only to sell-off subsequently for three days in a row. However, I consider this selling as representative of the remaining selling pressure brought to bear on RSX going into the election. This 3-day loss pales in comparison to the subsequent post-election gain. The afterglow of the election was so strong that in about 5 weeks, RSX&#8217;s post-election gain was 19.0%.  RSX closed higher just one more time (January 27, 2017).<\/p>\n<p>Russia&#8217;s well-being is of course highly dependent on oil prices. RSX rallied alongside a surge in oil prices and maxed out around the same time of oil. It just so happens that West Texas Intermediate now trades where it was on election day &#8211; very consistent with theme. Brent has not quite finished its Trump reversal.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_39841\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-39841\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_OilPrices.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_OilPrices.png\" alt=\"Oil mainly benefited from the Trump Trade in one short burst. Since early 2017, oil has traded lower in very choppy fashion.\" width=\"550\" height=\"398\" class=\"size-full wp-image-39841\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_OilPrices.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_OilPrices-300x217.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-39841\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Oil mainly benefited from the Trump Trade in one short burst. Since early 2017, oil has traded lower in very choppy fashion.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) &#8211; Cushing, Oklahoma [DCOILWTICO], <a href=\"https:\/\/fred.stlouisfed.org\/series\/DCOILWTICO\" target=\"_blank\">retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a>; June 22, 2017.<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I note these reversals as confirming evidence that the Trump Trade has ended. Characterizing the market as a mix of Trump on\/off trades has become more episodic than enduring (like the current rally in solar stocks based on <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtontimes.com\/news\/2017\/jun\/22\/donald-trump-considers-solar-panels-on-border-wall\/\" target=\"_blank\">Trump&#8217;s suggestion that his border wall could be funded by accompanying solar panels<\/a>). In February, <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/02\/27\/trump-volatility-trade-jwn-intc-ctsh-ibb\/\" target=\"_blank\">I observed an apparent shift in the nature of the Trump trade<\/a>: more about volatility than sustained moves. The increasing number of sector-wide, not just stock-wise, reversals since then demonstrate the extent of the post-election over-reaction. This over-reaction was fueled in part by <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/11\/03\/t2108-update-161103\/\" target=\"_blank\">the excessive pessimism that went into the election<\/a>, including the massive 10% or so drop in the S&#038;P 500 futures after Trump was confirmed as the winner. That implosion was reversed by the time the U.S. stock market opened for trading on the first post-election morning.<\/p>\n<p>While RSX traded down, I traded in and out of the Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X ETF (RUSS) two or three times. However, I missed the latest rally (RSX sell-off). Even though RSX has broken down well below its 200-day moving average (DMA) (and RUSS has broken out above its 200DMA), I am loathe to chase here because oil in the low $40s &#8220;smells like&#8221; the vicinity of a bottom. RSX could rally sharply if oil shows any signs of a (relief?) rally. So, I prefer to wait for a lower-risk fade on RSX.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_39835\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-39835\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_USO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_USO.png\" alt=\"The United States Oil (USO) maxed out along with RSX - a confirmation of Russia&#039;s on-going dependence on the fortunes of oil.\" width=\"550\" height=\"523\" class=\"size-full wp-image-39835\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_USO.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_USO-300x285.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-39835\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The United States Oil (USO) maxed out along with RSX &#8211; a confirmation of Russia&#8217;s on-going dependence on the fortunes of oil.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_39836\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-39836\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_RUSS.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_RUSS.png\" alt=\"The 200DMA breakout for the Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X ETF (RUSS) looks like the confirmation of a bottom.\" width=\"550\" height=\"508\" class=\"size-full wp-image-39836\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_RUSS.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_RUSS-300x277.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-39836\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The 200DMA breakout for the Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X ETF (RUSS) looks like the confirmation of a bottom.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Of course this all begs a question: do the major indices represent the last (and best) holdouts for the Trump Trade? Let&#8217;s hope not; if so, then the established pattern suggests the S&#038;P 500 and the NASDAQ must also revisit their respective pre-election prices&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>And for a little counterpoint, here is a chart of U.S. Concrete which broke out to a new all-time high.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_39845\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-39845\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_USCR.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_USCR.png\" alt=\"I never should have sold my small holding in U.S. Concrete (USCR)! The post-recession run-up unfolded into a fresh breakout after two years of largely going nowhere.\" width=\"550\" height=\"506\" class=\"size-full wp-image-39845\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_USCR.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/170622_USCR-300x276.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-39845\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">I never should have sold my small holding in U.S. Concrete (USCR)! The post-recession run-up unfolded into a fresh breakout after two years of largely going nowhere.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: short USO put options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One by one Trump Trades have unwound and completely reversed all their gains (or losses) since the U.S. Presidential election last November. I find the end of this particular Trump Trade particularly thematic. On June 21, 2017, the VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) completed a full reversal of its gain since the election of Donald &#8230; <a title=\"A Thematic Trump Trade Comes To An End\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/06\/23\/thematic-trump-trade-comes-to-end\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,482,199,377,242,62,1803],"tags":[536,1466,1618,1772,538],"class_list":["post-39832","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-commodities","category-oil","category-russia","category-technical-analysis","category-trump-trades","tag-oil-2","tag-rsx","tag-russ","tag-uscr","tag-uso"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Thematic Trump Trade Comes To An End - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/06\/23\/thematic-trump-trade-comes-to-end\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Thematic Trump Trade Comes To An End - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"One by one Trump Trades have unwound and completely reversed all their gains (or losses) since the U.S. Presidential election last November. 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I find the end of this particular Trump Trade particularly thematic. On June 21, 2017, the VanEck Vectors Russia ETF (RSX) completed a full reversal of its gain since the election of Donald ... 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