{"id":39597,"date":"2017-05-30T23:38:17","date_gmt":"2017-05-31T06:38:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=39597"},"modified":"2017-05-30T23:43:50","modified_gmt":"2017-05-31T06:43:50","slug":"forex-critical-major-breakthrough-eluded-mexican-peso-bulls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/05\/30\/forex-critical-major-breakthrough-eluded-mexican-peso-bulls\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Critical: A Major Breakthrough Eluded Mexican Peso Bulls"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Bulls in the Mexican peso successfully reversed all the post-election gains in USD\/MXN. Yet they failed to hold onto a big break through when USD\/MXN hit a new 6-month low last week. Buyers quickly stepped in and sent USD\/MXN right back to its declining 50-day moving average (DMA).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_39598\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-39598\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/170530_USDMXN.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/170530_USDMXN.png\" alt=\"USD\/MXN quickly bounced back from a new 6-month low last week.\" width=\"550\" height=\"480\" class=\"size-full wp-image-39598\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/170530_USDMXN.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/170530_USDMXN-300x262.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-39598\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">USD\/MXN quickly bounced back from a new 6-month low last week.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The latest CFTC data on the Commitment of Traders (CoT) shows that for the third week in a row speculators maintained a level of peso bullishness not seen since the summer of 2014. Yet, the lack of follow-through on the 6-month low demonstrates that the increasing bullishness on the Mexican peso needs more firepower. I am waiting on this firepower before getting as aggressively bullish on the Mexican peso as I would like.<\/p>\n<p><center><figure id=\"attachment_39600\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-39600\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/170530_cot-USD_MXN.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/170530_cot-USD_MXN.png\" alt=\"Speculators are maintaining healthy net long positions on the Mexican peso in support of a major sentiment shift that abruptly began in March.\" width=\"550\" height=\"550\" class=\"size-full wp-image-39600\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/170530_cot-USD_MXN.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/170530_cot-USD_MXN-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/170530_cot-USD_MXN-300x300.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-39600\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Speculators are maintaining healthy net long positions on the Mexican peso in support of a major sentiment shift that abruptly began in March.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oanda.com\/forex-trading\/analysis\/commitments-of-traders\" target=\"_blank\">Oanda&#8217;s CFTC&#8217;s Commitment of Traders<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I have had success in fading small rallies on USD\/MXN and locking in profits on a resumption of the 2017 downtrend. The 6-month low delivered my best peso trade <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/04\/29\/speculators-in-mexican-peso-last-did-this-at-oil-2014-peak\/\" target=\"_blank\">since I started taking note of the currency&#8217;s bullishness<\/a>. Given the sharp bounce off these lows, I suspect the latest fade will be the toughest to manage yet. The plunge in oil prices after OPEC&#8217;s decision to stick with current production cuts certainly helped propel USD\/MXN off its low.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_39604\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-39604\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/170530_USO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/170530_USO.png\" alt=\"The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) seems to be pivoting around its price from right before the U.S. Presidential election.\" width=\"550\" height=\"480\" class=\"size-full wp-image-39604\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/170530_USO.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/05\/170530_USO-300x262.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-39604\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The United States Oil Fund LP (USO) seems to be pivoting around its price from right before the U.S. Presidential election.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Based on prior forex experience, I am not surprised that the peso&#8217;s strength is not building as fast as it was when speculators remained confident in their net short positions. Now, on the edge of a major breakthrough, the peso bulls need to summon the will to get one&#8230;more&#8230;push&#8230;In the meantime I am bracing for large swings leading into and in response to the coming U.S. jobs report on Friday, June 2nd&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: short USD\/MXN<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bulls in the Mexican peso successfully reversed all the post-election gains in USD\/MXN. Yet they failed to hold onto a big break through when USD\/MXN hit a new 6-month low last week. Buyers quickly stepped in and sent USD\/MXN right back to its declining 50-day moving average (DMA). Source: FreeStockCharts.com The latest CFTC data on &#8230; <a title=\"Forex Critical: A Major Breakthrough Eluded Mexican Peso Bulls\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/05\/30\/forex-critical-major-breakthrough-eluded-mexican-peso-bulls\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[199,921,20,1853,377,62],"tags":[1688,1867,1843,1842,1841,538],"class_list":["post-39597","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities","category-downtrend","category-forex","category-mexico","category-oil","category-technical-analysis","tag-cftc","tag-committm","tag-cot","tag-mexican-peso","tag-usdmxn","tag-uso"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forex Critical: A Major Breakthrough Eluded Mexican Peso Bulls - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/05\/30\/forex-critical-major-breakthrough-eluded-mexican-peso-bulls\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forex Critical: A Major Breakthrough Eluded Mexican Peso Bulls - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bulls in the Mexican peso successfully reversed all the post-election gains in USD\/MXN. Yet they failed to hold onto a big break through when USD\/MXN hit a new 6-month low last week. Buyers quickly stepped in and sent USD\/MXN right back to its declining 50-day moving average (DMA). Source: FreeStockCharts.com The latest CFTC data on ... 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Yet they failed to hold onto a big break through when USD\/MXN hit a new 6-month low last week. Buyers quickly stepped in and sent USD\/MXN right back to its declining 50-day moving average (DMA). Source: FreeStockCharts.com The latest CFTC data on ... 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