{"id":3933,"date":"2011-01-30T07:18:05","date_gmt":"2011-01-30T12:18:05","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=3933"},"modified":"2011-01-30T07:23:07","modified_gmt":"2011-01-30T12:23:07","slug":"ewz-likely-going-lower","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/01\/30\/ewz-likely-going-lower\/","title":{"rendered":"The Brazil ETF (EWZ) Retests Its 200DMA, Likely Going Lower"},"content":{"rendered":"

The iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF (EWZ) broke out in early September, 2010<\/a> from an important downtrend pattern. At the time, I lamented that I missed the move because I was still playing the strategy of waiting for a 20% correction in EWZ<\/a> before making a purchase. On Friday, EWZ completed a roundtrip from that breakout point and retested its 200-day moving average (DMA). While such a technical event normally motivates me to start buying, I see a new potential downtrend forming in EWZ that looks all the more ominous given Brazil’s increasing struggles with capital controls<\/a> and growing inflation concerns<\/a>. <\/p>\n


\n
\"EWZ<\/a>
EWZ tests support but further downside risks loom large<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center>
\n<\/p>\n

I pulled back to a weekly view to get a better perspective on where EWZ sits relative to the former downtrend. I was quite surprised to realize that EWZ essentially went nowhere in 2010, thus under-performing the S&P 500’s 13% gain on the year. This view provides a stark contrast to all the analyst and pundit talk about favoring emerging markets over the U.S. stock market.<\/p>\n


\n
\"EWZ<\/a>
EWZ has struggled to make progress for 15 months<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n*All charts created using TeleChart:<\/strong> <\/a>
\n<\/center>
\n<\/p>\n

All things considered, I will remain content to watch EWZ from the sidelines. If it prints another 20% correction from recent highs, I will definitely be a buyer. Anytime before that will highly depend on unfolding financial and political events in Brazil.<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF (EWZ) broke out in early September, 2010 from an important downtrend pattern. At the time, I lamented that I missed the move because I was still playing the strategy of waiting for a 20% correction in EWZ before making a purchase. On Friday, EWZ completed a roundtrip from … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[181,62],"tags":[183,361,1597],"class_list":["post-3933","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-brazil","category-technical-analysis","tag-ewz","tag-ishares-msci-brazil-index-fund-etf","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Brazil ETF (EWZ) Retests Its 200DMA, Likely Going Lower - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/01\/30\/ewz-likely-going-lower\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Brazil ETF (EWZ) Retests Its 200DMA, Likely Going Lower - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The iShares MSCI Brazil Index Fund ETF (EWZ) broke out in early September, 2010 from an important downtrend pattern. 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