{"id":39057,"date":"2017-04-22T22:22:02","date_gmt":"2017-04-23T05:22:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=39057"},"modified":"2017-04-22T22:22:02","modified_gmt":"2017-04-23T05:22:02","slug":"t1208-update-170421","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/04\/22\/t1208-update-170421\/","title":{"rendered":"Above the 40 (April 21, 2017) – A Stock Market Knocking on the Door"},"content":{"rendered":"

AT40<\/strong> = 53.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs)
\nAT200<\/strong> = 61.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs
\nVIX<\/strong> = 14.6 (volatility index)
\nShort-term Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nIn the middle of last week, the S&P 500 (SPY) looked firmly locked in a state of stasis<\/a>. The very next day, the index rallied right through resistance at its 50-day moving average (DMA) before closing directly beneath it. While sellers returned to close out the week, the pattern of higher lows continued even as the downtrend from all-time highs held as resistance. (Note that I redrew the downtrend one more time to align with the daily closes – the method recommended by Trader Vic in “Methods of a Wall Street Master”<\/a>\"\"). <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 is knocking on the door of a breakout as sellers gradually lose their resolve with higher lows..<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Like the S&P 500, AT40 (T2108)<\/a>, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, is knocking on the door. My favorite technical indicator closed the week at 53.3%. The previous day it closed 55.9% and set a marginally higher bar for the current trading range.<\/p>\n

The NASDAQ (QQQ)* is also knocking on the door. On Thursday, the tech-laden index made a new (very) marginal all-time high. The small slide on Friday leaves the appearance that the NASDAQ is finally ready to make a new major breakout. <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The NASDAQ (QQQ) looks like it is ready to break out after several teases since March 1st.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

While the stock market knocks on the door, the volatility index, the VIX, pivots. On Friday, the VIX once again demonstrated the significance of the 15.35 pivot. The VIX reached as high as 15.33 before fading back to a 14.6 close. Perhaps the volatility index is elevated because of looming geo-political risks. If so, the door-knocking by the major indices becomes all the more impressive. <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The volatility index, the VIX, is finally elevated but now stuck around the 15.35 pivot.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

In trading, my call options on ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO) expired harmless. The upward momentum on the S&P 500 stalled out after the trade and then did not recover fast enough. I will lay off the options on SSO until earnings season is more in the rear view mirror.<\/p>\n

— – —
\n


\nFOLLOW Dr. Duru’s commentary on financial markets via email<\/a>, StockTwits<\/a>, Twitter<\/a>, and even Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

“Above the 40” uses the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) to assess the technical health of the stock market and to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. Abbreviated as AT40, Above the 40 is an alternative label for “T2108” which was created by Worden<\/a>. Learn more about T2108 on my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. AT200, or T2107, measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs.<\/p>\n

Active AT40 (T2108) periods<\/strong>: Day #295 over 20%, Day #115 over 30%, Day #5 over 40%, Day #2 over 50% (overperiod), Day #36 under 60% (underperiod), Day #67 under 70%<\/p>\n


\nDaily AT40 (T2108)<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: AT40 (T2108) (% measured on the right)
\nRed line: Overbought threshold (70%); Blue line: Oversold threshold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly AT40 (T2108)<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly<\/a>
\n*All charts created using <\/strong>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

The charts above are my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given AT40 post. For my latest AT40 post click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\nRelated links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nYou can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 or #AT40 hashtags. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO shares, long UVXY puts<\/p>\n

*Note QQQ is used as a proxy for a NASDAQ-related ETF<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

AT40 = 53.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 61.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.6 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish) Commentary In the middle of last week, the S&P 500 (SPY) looked firmly locked in a state of stasis. The … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[512,62,982],"tags":[1819,413,535,65,362,226,303],"class_list":["post-39057","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-resistance","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-at40","tag-nasdaq","tag-qqq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-t2108","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"\nAbove the 40 (April 21, 2017) - A Stock Market Knocking on the Door - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/04\/22\/t1208-update-170421\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Above the 40 (April 21, 2017) - A Stock Market Knocking on the Door - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"AT40 = 53.3% of stocks are trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs) AT200 = 61.1% of stocks are trading above their respective 200DMAs VIX = 14.6 (volatility index) Short-term Trading Call: cautiously bullish) Commentary In the middle of last week, the S&P 500 (SPY) looked firmly locked in a state of stasis. 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