{"id":38791,"date":"2017-04-11T00:29:58","date_gmt":"2017-04-11T07:29:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=38791"},"modified":"2017-04-11T00:29:58","modified_gmt":"2017-04-11T07:29:58","slug":"trading-cocoa-price-survives-forecast-of-surplus-consolidation-likely-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/04\/11\/trading-cocoa-price-survives-forecast-of-surplus-consolidation-likely-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Trading Cocoa: Price Survives A Forecast of Surplus &#8211; Consolidation Likely Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 5, 2017. <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4060454-trading-cocoa-price-survives-forecast-surplus-consolidation-likely-ahead\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.icco.org\/statistics\/monthly-review-of-the-market.html\" target=\"_blank\">The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently released its monthly market report<\/a> for February. February was of course the month of an accelerated price decline for cocoa. Cocoa hit, and retested, a 3 1\/2 year low priced in British pounds and a 9-year low priced in U.S. dollars. It was at the end of February that <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4049929-trading-cocoa-declining-price-takes-toll-brings-opportunity\" target=\"_blank\">I ventured to call for a bottom<\/a>. The ICCO&#8217;s forecast of a &#8220;significant supply surplus&#8221; seems to defy that call for a bottom:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Forecasts from the Ivory Coast also seemed to contradict any expectations for a bottom in prices. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_38811\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-38811\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/170404_CocoaProductionIvoryCoast.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/170404_CocoaProductionIvoryCoast.png\" alt=\"Bloomberg projects a record cocoa crop for the Ivory Coast.\" width=\"550\" height=\"269\" class=\"size-full wp-image-38811\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/170404_CocoaProductionIvoryCoast.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/170404_CocoaProductionIvoryCoast-300x147.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-38811\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bloomberg projects a record cocoa crop for the Ivory Coast.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2017-04-03\/pothole-puddles-spell-trouble-for-cocoa-with-record-ivorian-crop\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The Bloomberg respondents referenced favorable weather conditions for their optimistic outlooks. Bloomberg also noted the increased number of new and more productive cocoa trees which achieve production in 18 months instead of the typical 5 years. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, just last week <a href=\"http:\/\/af.reuters.com\/article\/ghanaNews\/idAFL5N1H424R\" target=\"_blank\">Reuters Africa chose to focus more on the regions of Ivory Coast experiencing poor growing conditions<\/a> to warn of potential problems with Ivory Coast production. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;This is a critical juncture for crop conditions AND the price technicals.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_38814\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-38814\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/170404_NIB.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/170404_NIB.png\" alt=\"High trading volume on the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) continues as the ETN cools off a bit from a sharp rally off its all-time low.\" width=\"550\" height=\"500\" class=\"size-full wp-image-38814\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/170404_NIB.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/170404_NIB-300x273.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-38814\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">High trading volume on the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) continues as the ETN cools off a bit from a sharp rally off its all-time low.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Ghana is not off the hook for potential problems. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Overall, I think cocoa has delivered encouraging price action under these circumstances. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>This juncture is a time for evaluating positions. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>I fully recognize that the downside risk is real even if that scenario is not my base case. {snip} The long-term chart below provides a stark reminder of the implications of further downside: a break of recent lows could trigger a fresh sell-off in cocoa, perhaps as low as $1500 per ton. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_38816\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-38816\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/170404_CocoaPrice1985-2017.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/170404_CocoaPrice1985-2017.png\" alt=\"If current lows do not hold, the bottom could literally fall out of the cocoa market.\" width=\"550\" height=\"309\" class=\"size-full wp-image-38816\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/170404_CocoaPrice1985-2017.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/04\/170404_CocoaPrice1985-2017-300x169.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-38816\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">If current lows do not hold, the bottom could literally fall out of the cocoa market.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2017-03-22\/cocoa-slump-threatening-top-producer-is-deja-vu-for-80s-traders\" target=\"_blank\">Bloomberg<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long NIB<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 5, 2017. <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4060454-trading-cocoa-price-survives-forecast-surplus-consolidation-likely-ahead\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 5, 2017. Click here to read the entire piece.) The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) recently released its monthly market report for February. February was of course the month of an accelerated price decline for cocoa. Cocoa hit, and retested, a &#8230; <a title=\"Trading Cocoa: Price Survives A Forecast of Surplus &#8211; Consolidation Likely Ahead\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/04\/11\/trading-cocoa-price-survives-forecast-of-surplus-consolidation-likely-ahead\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1226,673,921,59,266,511,62,920],"tags":[1322,1401,1553,1552,1827,1323],"class_list":["post-38791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-africa","category-agriculture-2","category-downtrend","category-economy","category-government","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-uptrend","tag-cocoa","tag-ghana","tag-icco","tag-international-cocoa-organization","tag-ivory-coast","tag-nib"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trading Cocoa: Price Survives A Forecast of Surplus - Consolidation Likely Ahead - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/04\/11\/trading-cocoa-price-survives-forecast-of-surplus-consolidation-likely-ahead\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trading Cocoa: Price Survives A Forecast of Surplus - Consolidation Likely Ahead - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 5, 2017. 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