{"id":3825,"date":"2011-01-07T03:43:48","date_gmt":"2011-01-07T08:43:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=3825"},"modified":"2011-01-07T04:18:14","modified_gmt":"2011-01-07T09:18:14","slug":"microsoft-intel-diverge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/01\/07\/microsoft-intel-diverge\/","title":{"rendered":"Microsoft and Intel Continue to Diverge"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I was clearly far too early in <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/11\/06\/intel-vs-microsoft\/\">restarting a pairs trade short Microsoft (MSFT) and long Intel (INTC)<\/a>. Over the past two months, the performance of MSFT has steadily improved, while Intel&#8217;s performance has steadily worsened. The MSFT\/INTC ratio is now at 10 month highs.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3826\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3826\" style=\"width: 482px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/110106_MSFTvsINTC.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/110106_MSFTvsINTC.jpg\" alt=\"Microsoft sprints away from Intel\" title=\"Microsoft sprints away from Intel\" width=\"492\" height=\"314\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3826\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/110106_MSFTvsINTC.jpg 492w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/110106_MSFTvsINTC-300x191.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 492px) 100vw, 492px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3826\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Microsoft sprints away from Intel<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=MSFT:INTC&#038;p=D&#038;yr=3&#038;mn=0&#038;dy=0&#038;id=t79147469839&#038;r=4270\">stockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>Typically, I would look at this divergence and start planning for a turn toward the bottom of the range. However, catalysts remain that could drive the performance divergence to the top of the multi-year range before this move finishes. Microsoft is generating excitement with its <a href=\"http:\/\/www.xbox.com\/en-US\/kinect\">Xbox 360 Kinect<\/a>. The stock broke out on Thursday on strong volume, presumably in reaction to <a href=\"http:\/\/ces.cnet.com\/8301-32254_1-20027711-283.html\">Steve Ballmer&#8217;s keynote at the 2011 Consumer Electronics Show (CES)<\/a>. MSFT is also somewhat of a &#8220;value play&#8221; for 2011 given its severe under-performance in 2010 (a decline of 8.5%).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3827\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3827\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/110106_MSFT.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/110106_MSFT.jpg\" alt=\"Microsoft&#039;s recent momentum continues in convincing fashion\" title=\"Microsoft&#039;s recent momentum continues in convincing fashion\" width=\"525\" height=\"448\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3827\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/110106_MSFT.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/110106_MSFT-300x256.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3827\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Microsoft's recent momentum continues in convincing fashion<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Intel is back into <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/10\/17\/intel-still-cant-catch-break\/\">its &#8220;can&#8217;t get no love&#8221; funk<\/a>. Analysts like Piper Jaffray have downgraded INTC, and there are <a href=\"http:\/\/bits.blogs.nytimes.com\/2010\/12\/08\/intel-girds-for-netbook-and-tablet-wars\/\">concerns that INTC will be a loser in the &#8220;tablet wars.&#8221;<\/a> Intel&#8217;s stock is sagging, and this week INTC experienced a critical breakdown below the 50 and 200-day moving averages (DMAs) on high selling volume.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3828\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3828\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/110106_INTC.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/110106_INTC.jpg\" alt=\"Intel is breaking down again\" title=\"Intel is breaking down again\" width=\"525\" height=\"447\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3828\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/110106_INTC.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/01\/110106_INTC-300x255.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3828\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Intel is breaking down again<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n*<strong>Last two charts created using TeleChart:<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/CURRENTAFPROMO.aspx?AFCODE=866\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/Content\/Banners\/images\/88x31.gif\"><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>Given all this, I am not motivated to make another play for a return to the bottom of the range on relative stock performance. Since, I am not interested in shorting INTC or going long MSFT, I will be &#8220;standing down&#8221; on this trade until catalysts become more favorable to the setup I want (like a move to the top of the multi-year trading range).<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: marginal value puts in MSFT and calls in INTC (effectively, no positions!)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I was clearly far too early in restarting a pairs trade short Microsoft (MSFT) and long Intel (INTC). Over the past two months, the performance of MSFT has steadily improved, while Intel&#8217;s performance has steadily worsened. The MSFT\/INTC ratio is now at 10 month highs. Source: stockcharts.com Typically, I would look at this divergence and &#8230; <a title=\"Microsoft and Intel Continue to Diverge\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/01\/07\/microsoft-intel-diverge\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[219,62],"tags":[222,221,416,417,418,1597],"class_list":["post-3825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-high-tech","category-technical-analysis","tag-intc","tag-intel","tag-microsoft","tag-msft","tag-pairs-trade","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Microsoft and Intel Continue to Diverge - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2011\/01\/07\/microsoft-intel-diverge\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Microsoft and Intel Continue to Diverge - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I was clearly far too early in restarting a pairs trade short Microsoft (MSFT) and long Intel (INTC). Over the past two months, the performance of MSFT has steadily improved, while Intel&#8217;s performance has steadily worsened. The MSFT\/INTC ratio is now at 10 month highs. Source: stockcharts.com Typically, I would look at this divergence and ... 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