{"id":38171,"date":"2017-02-21T19:53:27","date_gmt":"2017-02-22T03:53:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=38171"},"modified":"2017-02-21T19:53:27","modified_gmt":"2017-02-22T03:53:27","slug":"qsr-picks-popeyes-leaves-el-pollo-loco-last-chicken-standing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/02\/21\/qsr-picks-popeyes-leaves-el-pollo-loco-last-chicken-standing\/","title":{"rendered":"QSR Picks Popeyes And Leaves El Pollo Loco As the Last Chicken Standing"},"content":{"rendered":"

So it was true after all. Restaurant Brands (QSR) was indeed drooling over the secret recipes of Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (PLKI). Today, PLKI soared 19.1% to $78.73\/share and a $1.6B market cap, just short of the $79 ($1.8B market cap) that QSR promised to pay for acquiring PLKI<\/a>. <\/p>\n


\n
\"Popeyes<\/a>
Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen, Inc. (PLKI) soars one more time – this time for real.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

When I discussed the merits of a QSR for PLKI deal, I proposed a pairs trade going short both names<\/a>. After PLKI reversed all of its gains from the first buyout rumor, I also reversed course and bought PLKI shares<\/a>. It is better to be lucky than good. While I essentially nailed my guesstimate of a $1.7B buyout valuation for PLKI, a different order of events would have left me with a small loss instead of a nice net gain (yes, timing IS everything!). The rumors of QSR souring on a deal gave me the price swings I needed.<\/p>\n

I also thought QSR would pull back on a deal for PLKI. Instead, QSR gained another 6.9% to a new post-earnings and all-time high. Clearly the market thinks of this deal as highly accretive to QSR’s business (the key will be in international expansion).<\/p>\n


\n
\"Restaurant<\/a>
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR) gets the magical double-dip: a new business AND a much higher combined valuation.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

My QSR puts are of course worthless now. I closed out my PLKI position and took profits – I do not find waiting for the extra $1.27\/share to come at the closing of this deal worth the downside risks of this deal somehow going awry.<\/p>\n

This rapid turn of events now leaves El Pollo Loco (LOCO) as my “last chicken” standing. I am staying long shares per my discussion in “Another Chicken Run for Restaurant Brands With El Pollo Loco Rumors<\/a>.” While I doubt QSR will next buy LOCO, I think this deal puts chicken joints in play and cheap, well-established restaurants in play generally. Under these circumstances, LOCO is simply too cheap to ignore as a good risk\/reward speculation. While I wait for a fresh catalyst, I will keep a core position and look to play, if possible, the now 18-month long trading range and consolidation period.<\/p>\n


\n
\"El<\/a>
El Pollo Loco (LOCO) drops 2.2% on average volumes as traders express disappointment at being left behind by QSR.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long LOCO<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

So it was true after all. Restaurant Brands (QSR) was indeed drooling over the secret recipes of Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (PLKI). Today, PLKI soared 19.1% to $78.73\/share and a $1.6B market cap, just short of the $79 ($1.8B market cap) that QSR promised to pay for acquiring PLKI. When I discussed the merits of a … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[482,1129,62],"tags":[1414,1133,1822,1823],"class_list":["post-38171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakout","category-food-retail","category-technical-analysis","tag-loco","tag-merger-and-acquisition","tag-plki","tag-qsr"],"yoast_head":"\nQSR Picks Popeyes And Leaves El Pollo Loco As the Last Chicken Standing - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/02\/21\/qsr-picks-popeyes-leaves-el-pollo-loco-last-chicken-standing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"QSR Picks Popeyes And Leaves El Pollo Loco As the Last Chicken Standing - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"So it was true after all. Restaurant Brands (QSR) was indeed drooling over the secret recipes of Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (PLKI). Today, PLKI soared 19.1% to $78.73\/share and a $1.6B market cap, just short of the $79 ($1.8B market cap) that QSR promised to pay for acquiring PLKI. When I discussed the merits of a ... 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