{"id":38164,"date":"2017-03-14T20:03:04","date_gmt":"2017-03-15T03:03:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=38164"},"modified":"2017-03-14T20:36:25","modified_gmt":"2017-03-15T03:36:25","slug":"trading-cocoa-a-declining-price-takes-its-toll-but-brings-opportunity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/03\/14\/trading-cocoa-a-declining-price-takes-its-toll-but-brings-opportunity\/","title":{"rendered":"Trading Cocoa: A Declining Price Takes Its Toll But Brings Opportunity"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 27, 2017. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4049929-trading-cocoa-declining-price-takes-toll-brings-opportunity\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/08\/31\/cocoa-watch-fresh-buying-opportunity-nib\/\" target=\"_blank\">In late August, 2016<\/a>, I got ready to buy back into the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) as a part of <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2041983-opportunistically-invest-in-cocoa\" target=\"_blank\">my strategy to trade its price range<\/a> at that time. {snip} In fact, the downtrend on NIB is so steep that its 20DMA defines downward trending resistance now.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_38238\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-38238\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/170224_NIB.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/170224_NIB.png\" alt=\"The iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) has suffered mightily for five straight months.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-38238\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/170224_NIB.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/170224_NIB-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-38238\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) has suffered mightily for five straight months.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_38237\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-38237\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/170224_NIB-monthly.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/170224_NIB-monthly.png\" alt=\"The monthly chart for the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) shows trading volume surging at the all-time lows.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-38237\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/170224_NIB-monthly.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/170224_NIB-monthly-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-38237\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The monthly chart for the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) shows trading volume surging at the all-time lows.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I treated this extended decline as a unique buying opportunity to accumulate NIB at much cheaper prices than was possible before (in spite of the common wisdom that <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2797765-the-commodities-crash-playbook-a-long-overdue-rewrite-and-revision\" target=\"_blank\">commodities tend to trend for long stretches of time<\/a>!). I think of the secular rise in demand for chocolate as an enduring support for cocoa prices and current weaknesses are temporary. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>While I have kicked myself for failing to execute on the early selling opportunity, I know I have good company in assuming that cocoa would manage to return to its previous trading range if not better. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-cocoa-ivorycoast-idUSKBN15B1X4\" target=\"_blank\">Exporters in the Ivory Coast, the world&#8217;s largest cocoa producer, have defaulted on contracts<\/a> after making bad futures bets on higher prices. The declining price of cocoa took its toll on these shippers. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The defaults have also taken their toll on cocoa farmers in the Ivory Coast. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/YcC5WjXBUHo\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Back when cocoa prices were at a peak in June, 2016, there were no signs of the coming collapse. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Prices recovered quickly in the weeks following Brexit in U.S. dollars, pounds, and SDRs (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.imf.org\/external\/np\/exr\/facts\/sdr.htm\" target=\"_blank\">Special Drawing Rights<\/a>). However, in the second half of July, the sell-off resumed. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_38242\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-38242\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/170226_CocoaPrices.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/170226_CocoaPrices.png\" alt=\"Cocoa prices plunged sharply from November through January as a plentiful harvest took its toll.\" width=\"550\" height=\"315\" class=\"size-full wp-image-38242\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/170226_CocoaPrices.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/02\/170226_CocoaPrices-300x172.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-38242\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Cocoa prices plunged sharply from November through January as a plentiful harvest took its toll.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: The <a href=\"http:\/\/www.icco.org\/statistics\/monthly-review-of-the-market.html\">International Cocoa Organization (ICCO)<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The current demand picture is quite mixed. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The current weakness should self-correct as cheaper prices restoke demand in 2017. Eventually, some kind of weather calamity or production failure will hinder supply; if not this year, then the next. So, my long-term bullishness on cocoa remains the same. As a result, I am sticking to the longer-term strategy of buying NIB when it is cheap (and sell when it gets high). The main difference now is that NIB is selling at or near bargain basement levels I thought would never come, especially after <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/01\/21\/cocoa-a-king-among-commodities-finally-gives-way-to-a-ripe-buying-opportunity\/\" target=\"_blank\">cocoa was a top-performing commodity not too long ago<\/a>. <\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long NIB<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 27, 2017. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4049929-trading-cocoa-declining-price-takes-toll-brings-opportunity\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 27, 2017. Click here to read the entire piece.) In late August, 2016, I got ready to buy back into the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) as a part of my strategy to trade its price range at that &#8230; <a title=\"Trading Cocoa: A Declining Price Takes Its Toll But Brings Opportunity\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/03\/14\/trading-cocoa-a-declining-price-takes-its-toll-but-brings-opportunity\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1226,673,483,20,512,62,982],"tags":[378,1322,1825,1553,1552,1827,1323],"class_list":["post-38164","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-africa","category-agriculture-2","category-breakdown","category-forex","category-resistance","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-range","tag-chocolate","tag-cocoa","tag-cocoa-association-of-asia","tag-icco","tag-international-cocoa-organization","tag-ivory-coast","tag-nib"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trading Cocoa: A Declining Price Takes Its Toll But Brings Opportunity - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2017\/03\/14\/trading-cocoa-a-declining-price-takes-its-toll-but-brings-opportunity\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trading Cocoa: A Declining Price Takes Its Toll But Brings Opportunity - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 27, 2017. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) In late August, 2016, I got ready to buy back into the iPath Bloomberg Cocoa SubTR ETN (NIB) as a part of my strategy to trade its price range at that ... 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