{"id":37318,"date":"2016-12-13T21:24:57","date_gmt":"2016-12-14T05:24:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=37318"},"modified":"2016-12-15T02:40:56","modified_gmt":"2016-12-15T10:40:56","slug":"t2108-update-161213","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/12\/13\/t2108-update-161213\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (December 13, 2016) – Whispering Warnings for the S&P 500 On December Fed Eve"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 74.5% (5th overbought day)
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 67.1%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 12.7
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #205 over 20%, Day #25 over 30%, Day #24 over 40%, Day #22 over 50%, Day #16 over 60%, Day #5 over 70% (overbought)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nThis is day #5 of the (extended) overbought rally that I heralded last week<\/a>. It is December Fed Eve: the December day before the Federal Reserve hands down its latest pronouncement on monetary policy. This policy statement will almost certainly include a rate hike and some hints as to the Fed’s thinking for 2017. In a move that speaks volumes about the surging optimism in financial markets, investors and traders rushed to put yet more money in stocks and send the major indices to fresh all-time highs.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 (SPY) gained 0.7% to a new closing all-time high and a FIFTH day in a row trading at or above the upper-Bollinger Band (BB)<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The NASDAQ (QQQ) gained 1.0% to a new all-time closing high although it pulled back from its upper-Bollinger Band (BB).<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The S&P 500 (SPY) has created the very definition of an extended overbought rally by stretching to or above its upper-Bollinger Band for every day of this overbought period. The money rotation out of and back into tech stocks is abating now that the NASDAQ has joined the S&P 500 in printing all-time highs. Several big cap tech stocks notched notable gains on the day: Amazon.com (AMZN) 1.8%, Facebook (FB) 2.2% (despite today’s gain, Facebook still looks like it is breaking down<\/a>), Apple (AAPL) 1.7%, and Intel (INTC) 2.3% stood out in particular. I REALLY like the 50DMA breakout on INTC. While I missed playing the perfect test of 200DMA support, I am looking forward to buying the dip.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Intel<\/a>
Intel (INTC) has bounced back sharply from an equally sharp retest of 200DMA support.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

With these gains, I expected T2108<\/a>, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages (DMAs), to press further into overbought territory. I found instead that my favorite technical indicator is whispering warnings for financial markets. For the thrid day in a row, T2108 has gone nowhere even as the S&P 500 has advanced two of these of three days. I find this bearish divergence particularly troubling ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting. This divergence represents a market hesitation and underlying weakening that is hidden by the bigger stocks that must be leading the advance in the major indices.<\/p>\n

Given this stall in T2108 I looked around at some usual suspects for more evidence. The iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) closed flat for the day and printed a technical pattern called a spinning top on Friday. Monday was a down day. Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) closed with a paltry 0.3% gain and has gone nowhere for three days. SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) closed flat on the day and sold off the previous two days from a 16-month high. The iShares Transportation Average (IYT) closed with a 0.3% gain and topped out three trading days ago. In other words, do not let the major indices fool you: the underlying market has paused and given the Fed meeting its due respect.<\/p>\n

The volatility index, the VIX, has also paid its respects by increasing ever so slightly and gaining 4 out of the last 5 trading days after its last bottom.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The volatility index, the VIX, has apparently refused to go any lower for now.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The VIX is too low for me to bother fading volatility ahead of the Fed meeting as I like to do, but I stand ready to fade post-Fed volatility.<\/p>\n

The bearish divergence and the market hesitation convinced me to downgrade my short-term trading call to cautiously bullish. As a reminder of the T2108 trading rules on overbought conditions, I do not switch to bearish UNTIL T2108 drops out of overbought conditions or the S&P 500 goes parabolic and forms a climactic topping pattern. In other words, I am NOT bearish even as strain to listen to the whispering warning from T2108. As a small<\/em> precaution, I will sell my shares in ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO) ahead of the Fed announcement. I was disappointed that the S&P 500 never dipped in the overbought period and forced me to just jump in and buy; as a result I am sitting on a small gain. I will also lock in my surprisingly large gains in my April call options on iShares US Home Construction (ITB).<\/p>\n

As an example of my on-going bullishness, I went ahead and bought the big dips today in the commodity and industrial plays that have become extremely popular in this post-election rally. I am also preparing to buy any immediate post-Fed dips. I bought handfuls of call options in U.S. Steel (X), Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF), and Freeport-McMoran (FCX). X is 6.6% off its most recent high. CLF is down 11.2% off its most recent high and closed at 20DMA support. FCX is down 7.2% below its most recent high and has completely reversed the one-day surge that took the stock to that high. My positions in CLF and FCX are my second go-rounds in this post-election period. <\/p>\n

(For the most recent background on my general bullishness, see “A Stock Market Positioned to Win A Battle of Sentiments: Taxation Versus Economic Optimism<\/a>.”)<\/p>\n


\n
\"S&P<\/a>
S&P 500 Performance By T2108 Duration Above the 70% Threshold<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

— – —
\n


\nFOLLOW Dr. Duru’s commentary on financial markets via email<\/a>, StockTwits<\/a>, Twitter<\/a>, and even Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly<\/a>
\n*All charts created using <\/strong>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

The charts above are the my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given T2108 post. For my latest T2108 post click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\nRelated links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO shares<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,490,796,62],"tags":[222,413,535,65,362,226,303],"class_list":["post-37318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-overbought","category-semiconductors","category-technical-analysis","tag-intc","tag-nasdaq","tag-qqq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-t2108","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (December 13, 2016) - Whispering Warnings for the S&P 500 On December Fed Eve - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/12\/13\/t2108-update-161213\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (December 13, 2016) - Whispering Warnings for the S&P 500 On December Fed Eve - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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