{"id":37300,"date":"2016-12-11T20:09:19","date_gmt":"2016-12-12T04:09:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=37300"},"modified":"2016-12-11T20:15:16","modified_gmt":"2016-12-12T04:15:16","slug":"twitter-as-a-trump-trade","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/12\/11\/twitter-as-a-trump-trade\/","title":{"rendered":"Twitter As A Trump Trade"},"content":{"rendered":"

A lot of Trump trades<\/a> have gained great favor over the past month. Twitter (TWTR) is one potential trade I am still waiting to pop.<\/p>\n

Trump’s Twitter habit is of course well-known and probably legendary at this point. As a result, Twitter has become a household name more than ever across the social and media spectrum. “Twitter” is a strong brand name, and “tweeting” or a “tweet” might as well be the equivalent of must-see, breaking news. When it comes to theme-based trading, these attributes are typically enough to launch an associated skyward. Unfortunately for Twitter, its easily recognized brand also comes with a lot of baggage that has already weighed heavily on the stock. <\/p>\n


\n
\"Twitter<\/a>
Twitter is inching toward closing its last big gap down in October. Could Trump’s tweeting habit provide the next catalyst to capture investor imaginations?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n
\"Twitter's<\/a>
Twitter’s best days are definitely way in the past but a bottom may finally be at hand with this year’s successful test of all-time lows.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

While TWTR is up 6.9% since the election, the stock generated most of that gain in the first day of post-election trading. TWTR even lost all of those gains over the course of the following two weeks. TWTR is now up 6.3% for December. The first daily chart above shows that TWTR is on the edge of a breakout. Even if no follow-through occurs in December, I fully expect a friendly January with the relief from the pressure of end-of-year selling. Note that TWTR’s post-election gain is ahead of the S&P 500’s (SPY) 5.6% post-election gain and the NASDAQ’s (QQQ) 4.8% gain, but it is peanuts compared to the post-election gains in the likes of U.S. Steel (X) of 72% or Goldman Sachs (GS) of 33%.<\/p>\n

I made a big mistake in failing to take profits on my short put<\/a> when the M&A rumors<\/a> were hot and heavy. That position is now back to roughly even. After the M&A excitement completely fizzled out, I stubbornly took out a fresh short position on a January $15 2018 put. That position allows me to buy TWTR for under $12.50 whereas the first one has a break-even at just under $20. My main outstanding question is whether Twitter will retain its cachet after inauguration…<\/p>\n


\n
\"At<\/a>
At least I am aligned with the good folks on StockTwits!<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: StockTwits<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: short TWTR put options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A lot of Trump trades have gained great favor over the past month. Twitter (TWTR) is one potential trade I am still waiting to pop. Trump’s Twitter habit is of course well-known and probably legendary at this point. As a result, Twitter has become a household name more than ever across the social and media … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[599,32],"tags":[1800,1258],"class_list":["post-37300","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-internet","category-options","tag-donald-trump","tag-twtr"],"yoast_head":"\nTwitter As A Trump Trade - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/12\/11\/twitter-as-a-trump-trade\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Twitter As A Trump Trade - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"A lot of Trump trades have gained great favor over the past month. 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