{"id":37224,"date":"2016-12-06T23:06:01","date_gmt":"2016-12-07T07:06:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=37224"},"modified":"2016-12-06T23:06:01","modified_gmt":"2016-12-07T07:06:01","slug":"t2108-update-161206","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/12\/06\/t2108-update-161206\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (December 6, 2016) – The S&P 500 Flirts With A Major Overbought Breakout"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 68.6%
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 63.0%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 11.8
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: bullish
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #200 over 20%, Day #20 over 30%, Day #19 over 40%, Day #17 over 50%, Day #11 over 60% (overperiod), Day #90 under 70%<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nAfter a bit of a hiccup since the last T2108 Update<\/a>, the stock market is back on track. The breather for the S&P 500 (SPY) seems to be over with T2108<\/a> at 68.6% and just below the 70% overbought threshold. The S&P 500 closed today just one point off its all-time high set on November 25th.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500’s breather did not last long – a major breakout lies around the corner.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The NASDAQ (QQQ) started December completing a sharp 2-day sell-off. The recovery is moving one slow step at a time.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The S&P 500 looks ready to break out mainly thanks to the high beta components of the index. PowerShares S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB) is already making new all-time highs after last month’s breather. The PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) remains the laggard slowing down the action. I use a weekly chart for SPHB to show perspective. The flash crash from 2015 prevents me from showing an extended weekly for SPLV.<\/p>\n


\n
\"PowerShares<\/a>
PowerShares S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB) looks like a champ again.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"PowerShares<\/a>
PowerShares S&P 500 Low Volatility ETF (SPLV) continues to struggle to break free from a downtrend in place since July.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Needless to say, my short-term trading call remains bullish. The volatility index, the VIX, is a potential caveat. The VIX is hovering above its lows for the year. The post-election run-off for volatility appears set to continue, but complacency is already reaching “maximum” levels.<\/p>\n


\n
\"At<\/a>
At at 4-month low, the volatility index, the VIX, is approaching “maximum complacency” once again.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I also feel a little uneasy anticipating a major breakout and overbought rally with an important Federal Reserve meeting just a week away. A new hedge in Catepillar (CAT) is helping me a bit with the unease. Last week, CAT released a sales update that seemed to take the steam out of the celebratory optimism that has accompanied the stock for quite some time – an enthusiasm that accelerated after the U.S. Presidential election (quote from Seeking Alpha transcripts<\/a> – emphasis mine):<\/p>\n

\n“Now let’s look at EPS excluding restructuring as reflected in the Thomson First Call Consensus, which is on Slide 8. In our view that current consensus of $3.25 on $38 billion of sales is too optimistic given expected headwinds<\/strong>. While we are still in the process of finalizing our 2017 plans for profit in cash flow, I wanted to review some of the headwinds that we know exist. Let’s start on the positive side of the ledger for profit. We expect $300 million to $400 million of cost reduction to carryover into 2017 from all the restructuring actions that we took this year, but now let’s look at the other side of the ledger.<\/p>\n

On $1 billion of lower sales versus 2016, which is reflected in the Thomson First Call Consensus, we would expect that profit impacts that\u2019s a variable margin rate of somewhere between $350 million to $450 million, variable margin as we define it as the selling price to dealers minus the variable input cost like material and labor.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

The news caused the stock to drop quickly from its high of the day, and I bought a handful of January put options. CAT has done well to stabilize since then. Note well in the chart below how a Bollinger Band (BB) squeeze is developing (meaning that a big breakout, up or down, from low volatility is likely coming soon).<\/p>\n


\n
\"Caterpillar<\/a>
Caterpillar (CAT) gapped up 7.7% after the election and has gained an additional 4.4% since then. Last week’s business update put a firm halt to the momentum.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

On the side of unadulterated bullishness, we stil have the financials. In the last T2108 Update, I relished finally landing a handful of call options in the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) at my target price. Incredibly, just two days later, that position increased around 150% in value as XLF hit a fresh 52-week high. I took my profits at that point. Since then, buyers pushed XLF to a fresh breakout and a near 9-year high.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is in “full bull” mode.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

When I last noted XLF’s momentum, I should have shown one of the clear leaders of that momentun: Goldman Sachs (GS). I think this chart says it all. Just looking at it should remind you to stay bullish this market for now.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Goldman<\/a>
Goldman Sachs has lurched higher nearly straight up since the election for a 27.2% gain since then.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"This<\/a>
This weekly chart shows GS at levels last seen in late 2007 – near an all-time high.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

A friendly reminder from Netflix (NFLX) that tech and the internet economy is not quite dead yet… (compare to Facebook’s slow breakdown<\/a>).<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The post-earnings momentum has returned for Netflix (NFLX)<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Finally, on the flip side, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is pushing on a fresh 3 1\/2 year low as FY17 guidance severely disappoints the market. How much longer before Ackman makes a move at the board to try to save his recent investment from going down the tubes?<\/p>\n


\n
\"Chipotle<\/a>
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) sunk deeply in the wake of poor annual guidance. What catalyst can keep the stock from initiating a new, extended slide?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Finally, the health care sector has major post-election struggles. Medical device companies like Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) are flirting with major breakdowns. Last month’s attempt to regain support at the 200-day moving average (DMA) failed. A break of November’s low would confirm 200DMA resistance and put an extended slide into play.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The strong uptrend for Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) has ended with a major 200DMA breakdown. The 50DMA is curving sharply downward as well.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

— – —
\n


\nFOLLOW Dr. Duru’s commentary on financial markets via email<\/a>, StockTwits<\/a>, Twitter<\/a>, and even Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly<\/a>
\n*All charts created using <\/strong>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

The charts above are the my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given T2108 post. For my latest T2108 post click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\nRelated links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long UVXY shares and short UVXY call options, long CMG call and put options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,483,482,548,1129,300,43,599,490,512,62],"tags":[1152,64,746,208,145,413,405,535,65,1271,1270,362,303,311],"class_list":["post-37224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-financials","category-food-retail","category-health-care","category-industrial-sector","category-internet","category-overbought","category-resistance","category-technical-analysis","tag-all-time-high","tag-cat","tag-cmg","tag-gs","tag-isrg","tag-nasdaq","tag-nflx","tag-qqq","tag-sp-500","tag-sphb","tag-splv","tag-spy","tag-vix","tag-xlf"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (December 6, 2016) - The S&P 500 Flirts With A Major Overbought Breakout - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/12\/06\/t2108-update-161206\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (December 6, 2016) - The S&P 500 Flirts With A Major Overbought Breakout - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are ... 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