{"id":36901,"date":"2016-11-06T22:43:02","date_gmt":"2016-11-07T06:43:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=36901"},"modified":"2016-11-06T22:47:49","modified_gmt":"2016-11-07T06:47:49","slug":"t2108-update-161104","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/11\/06\/t2108-update-161104\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (November 4, 2016) – A Second Bullish Divergence As the S&P 500 Holds Critical Support"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are occasionally posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 23.2%
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 48.6%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 22.5 (was as low as 19.2)
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: cautiously bullish
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #180 over 20%, Day #6 under 30% (underperiod), Day #11 under 40%, Day #28 under 50%, Day #43 under 60%, Day #69 under 70%<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nI am keeping this piece relatively short because apparently futures are soaring on more Clinton email news<\/a>. I am assuming the stock market will get a strong open, but there is of course no guarantee on the sustainability of a strong open. However, based on two straight days of bullish divergence, I strongly suspect that bulls will keep up the pressure on Monday.<\/p>\n

On Thursday, November 3, I finally shifted the short-term trading call to a bullish bias<\/a>. I described how previous bearish divergences had resolved into noticeable selling along with the first, very slight, bullish divergence. The next day, another bullish divergence emerged even as the S&P 500 (SPY) faded hard into a historic 9th straight day of selling<\/a> – such persistent selling has not happened since 1980. The good news is that the S&P 500 valiantly held on to support at its 200-day moving average (DMA).<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 (SPY) lost a fraction for its 9th straight loss.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n
\"The<\/a>
The NASDAQ looks ready to retest 200DMA support soon given the persistent selling since its 50DMA meltdown.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

T2108, the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40DMAs, faded along with the S&P 500. However, T2108’s surge on the day was so strong that my favorite technical indicator finished the day with a gain from 22.3% to 23.2%. The stock market looks like it is doing its best to stay out of oversold territory (below 20%).<\/p>\n


\n
\"T2108s<\/a>
T2108s descent has abruptly stopped just above oversold territory.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The bullish divergence between T2108 and the S&P 500 will take on definitive importance if the stock market gaps up to start the week and holds that gap. At that point, I would drop the “cautiously” from my bullish trading bias…especially given the technicals will suggest a successful test of 200DMA support.<\/p>\n

Catepillar (CAT) printed one of the strongest symbols of bullish divergence on Friday with a strong 1.3% gain. Trading volume was above average and CAT closed near its high for the day.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Caterpillar<\/a>
Caterpillar (CAT) contributed to the bullish divergence that ended last week’s trading.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

As the stock market rallied on Friday, the volatility index, the VIX dropped far enough to reverse all of Thursday’s gains. At the close, the VIX rallied for a positive gain and ended the week with a very wild swing.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The volatility index, the VIX, closed the week with its 9th straight up day and a 73% gain from the trough.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n
\n
\"ProShares<\/a>
ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) is holding onto a 50DMA breakout thanks to a resilient VIX.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I have two main trades of note.<\/p>\n

I finally sold my shares of ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS) and locked in the profits. Per my trading rules for oversold conditions<\/a>, now is the time to start earnestly closing out bearish positions. SDS was on the top of my list. Next on my trading list was Apple (AAPL).<\/p>\n

I have not covered AAPL since late September<\/a>. I did not post a pre-earnings trading call. I did not even acknowledge the post-earnings gap down that appeared to etch a fresh top in AAPL and reversed all of its Samsung-related gains. AAPL broke through 50DMA support on high volume to start November trading. AAPL closed the week with a complete reversal of the gains from the iPhone 7 breakout. With a bullish trading bias in hand, I thought this was as good a time as any to get back to trading AAPL options. I am targeting a test of 50DMA resistance around $112.50. <\/p>\n


\n
\"Apple<\/a>
Apple (AAPL) broke down post-earnings. Can it avoid a retest of 200DMA support?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

— – —
\n


\nFOLLOW Dr. Duru’s commentary on financial markets via email<\/a>, StockTwits<\/a>, Twitter<\/a>, and even Instagram<\/a>!<\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly<\/a>
\n*All charts created using <\/strong>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

The charts above are the my LATEST updates independent of the date of this given T2108 post. For my latest T2108 post click here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\nRelated links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long UVXY shares and short UVXY call and long UVXY put options, long AAPL call options, long CAT call options<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[219,43,491,512,511,62,1304],"tags":[250,64,413,535,65,362,226,1092,303],"class_list":["post-36901","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-high-tech","category-industrial-sector","category-oversold","category-resistance","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-top","tag-aapl","tag-cat","tag-nasdaq","tag-qqq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-t2108","tag-uvxy","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (November 4, 2016) - A Second Bullish Divergence As the S&P 500 Holds Critical Support - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/11\/06\/t2108-update-161104\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (November 4, 2016) - A Second Bullish Divergence As the S&P 500 Holds Critical Support - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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