{"id":36645,"date":"2016-10-25T01:14:44","date_gmt":"2016-10-25T08:14:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=36645"},"modified":"2016-10-25T01:14:44","modified_gmt":"2016-10-25T08:14:44","slug":"traders-return-to-australian-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/10\/25\/traders-return-to-australian-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Traders Return to the Australian Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 16, 2016. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4012317-traders-return-australian-dollar\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Three weeks ago, I was clearly premature in declaring an &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4008282-potentially-ominous-sentiment-shift-australian-dollar\" target=\"_blank\">ominous sentiment shift<\/a>&#8221; in the Australian dollar (FXA). Since then, speculators have buckled down and returned to growing net long positions in the commodity-dependent currency.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_36646\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-36646\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161015_cot-AUD_USD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161015_cot-AUD_USD.png\" alt=\"Since nearly going to zero in late September, net speculative longs on the Australian dollar have steadily marched higher. \" width=\"550\" height=\"550\" class=\"size-full wp-image-36646\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161015_cot-AUD_USD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161015_cot-AUD_USD-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161015_cot-AUD_USD-300x300.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-36646\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Since nearly going to zero in late September, net speculative longs on the Australian dollar have steadily marched higher.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.oanda.com\/forex-trading\/analysis\/commitments-of-traders\" target=\"_blank\">Oanda&#8217;s CFTC Commitment of Traders<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_36649\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-36649\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_AUDUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"The pullback in AUD\/USD only ended with 200DMA support.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-36649\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_AUDUSD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_AUDUSD-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-36649\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The pullback in AUD\/USD only ended with 200DMA support.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_36650\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-36650\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_AUDJPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_AUDJPY.png\" alt=\"The Australian dollar&#039;s rally against the Japanese yen now faces a critical test of resistance at its declining 200DMA.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-36650\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_AUDJPY.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_AUDJPY-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-36650\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian dollar&#8217;s rally against the Japanese yen now faces a critical test of resistance at its declining 200DMA.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Iron ore prices do not quite explain the Australian dollar&#8217;s resilience and resurgence. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_36647\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-36647\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_MBIOI-62-ironore.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_MBIOI-62-ironore.jpg\" alt=\"A new trick from iron ore: essentially flat-line prices for the past month.\" width=\"550\" height=\"391\" class=\"size-full wp-image-36647\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_MBIOI-62-ironore.jpg 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_MBIOI-62-ironore-300x213.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-36647\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A new trick from iron ore: essentially flat-line prices for the past month.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.businessinsider.com.au\/china-imported-a-billion-tonnes-of-iron-ore-in-the-past-year-but-that-wasnt-enough-to-support-prices-overnight-2016-10\" target=\"_blank\">Business Insider<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>There was also nothing from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/media-releases\/2016\/mr-16-26.html\" target=\"_blank\">the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in its October pronouncement on monetary policy<\/a> that provided a catalyst&#8230;unless traders are guessing that the RBA is finally finished cutting rates for the foreseeable future. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Whatever the reason for the return of speculative longs, the Australian dollar has become a handy currency for me to use to hedge on other plays. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_36652\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-36652\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_GBPAUD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_GBPAUD.png\" alt=\"GBP\/AUD has traded downward for nearly an entire month after September&#039;s high had the appearance of a change in directional bias.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-36652\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_GBPAUD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_GBPAUD-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-36652\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">GBP\/AUD has traded downward for nearly an entire month after September&#8217;s high had the appearance of a change in directional bias.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_36653\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-36653\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_GBPAUD-weekly.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_GBPAUD-weekly.png\" alt=\"The weekly chart shows GBP\/AUD has now completed a roundtrip from the big 2013 breakout.\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-36653\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_GBPAUD-weekly.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/10\/161014_GBPAUD-weekly-300x205.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-36653\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The weekly chart shows GBP\/AUD has now completed a roundtrip from the big 2013 breakout.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net short the Australian dollar<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 16, 2016. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4012317-traders-return-australian-dollar\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 16, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Three weeks ago, I was clearly premature in declaring an &#8220;ominous sentiment shift&#8221; in the Australian dollar (FXA). Since then, speculators have buckled down and returned to growing net long positions &#8230; <a title=\"Traders Return to the Australian Dollar\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/10\/25\/traders-return-to-australian-dollar\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,199,20],"tags":[310,309,676,306,203],"class_list":["post-36645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-commodities","category-forex","tag-australian-dollar","tag-fxa","tag-iron-ore","tag-rba","tag-reserve-bank-of-australia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Traders Return to the Australian Dollar - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/10\/25\/traders-return-to-australian-dollar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Traders Return to the Australian Dollar - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on October 16, 2016. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) Three weeks ago, I was clearly premature in declaring an &#8220;ominous sentiment shift&#8221; in the Australian dollar (FXA). Since then, speculators have buckled down and returned to growing net long positions ... 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