{"id":36376,"date":"2016-09-25T09:19:38","date_gmt":"2016-09-25T16:19:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=36376"},"modified":"2016-09-25T09:19:38","modified_gmt":"2016-09-25T16:19:38","slug":"ominous-sentiment-shift-australian-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/09\/25\/ominous-sentiment-shift-australian-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"A Potentially Ominous Sentiment Shift for the Australian Dollar"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 25, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

The latest data on speculator forex positioning<\/a> showed a sudden and abrupt change in sentiment on the Australian dollar (FXA). {snip} If this sharp drop in net longs turns into net shorts, the odds of a renewed sell-off in the Australian dollar notably increase. <\/p>\n

The chart below shows that, generally, the Australian dollar slides when traders go from an extended period of net bullishness to net bearishness WHILE the net shorts grow. {snip}<\/p>\n

Click for a larger view…<\/strong><\/em>
\n


\n
\"Large<\/a>
Large drops in speculator net longs from a bullish period have tended to presage drops in the Australian dollar<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Oanda’s CFTC Commitments of Traders<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

It is very possible that the latest sharp change in sentiment simply marked prudent risk reduction ahead of the September meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve. {snip}<\/p>\n

As an example, newly positioned RBA Governor Philip Lowe addressed Australia’s House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics<\/a> on September 22nd and provided a relatively upbeat review of the economy. Most notably, Lowe estimated that 75% of Australia’s decline in mining investment is over. The associated economic drag from that decline is thus lifting soon.<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

Given this decline in mining investment has been a major drag on the Australian dollar, I readily concede that the runway for staying bearish on the Australian dollar is not likely a long one. Moreover, on-going monetary accommodation around the globe continues to encourage traders and investors to take the risk of plowing money into Australia:<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

Ironically, if the U.S. Federal Reserve finally gets around to another rate hike in December, 2016 as futures market predict<\/a>, that event could mark the BOTTOM of whatever sell-off is coming for the Australian dollar. {snip}<\/p>\n

Lowe never referred directly to iron ore, but certainly 2016’s rally in iron ore has helped keep the Australian dollar higher than it otherwise would have traded. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"This<\/a>
This has been a wild year for iron ore prices but overall a positive one.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Business Insider Australia<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Against<\/a>
Against the U.S. dollar, the Australian dollar is wedged between a short-term downtrend and uptrending support from its 200-day moving average (DMA).<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: net short the Australian dollar<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 25, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 25, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) The latest data on speculator forex positioning showed a sudden and abrupt change in sentiment on the Australian dollar (FXA). {snip} If this sharp drop in net longs turns into net … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,199,59,20],"tags":[308,310,1688,309,676,129,1510,306],"class_list":["post-36376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-commodities","category-economy","category-forex","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-cftc","tag-fxa","tag-iron-ore","tag-market-sentiment","tag-philip-lowe","tag-rba"],"yoast_head":"\nA Potentially Ominous Sentiment Shift for the Australian Dollar - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/09\/25\/ominous-sentiment-shift-australian-dollar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Potentially Ominous Sentiment Shift for the Australian Dollar - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 25, 2016. 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