{"id":3551,"date":"2010-11-30T08:42:31","date_gmt":"2010-11-30T13:42:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=3551"},"modified":"2010-11-30T09:06:41","modified_gmt":"2010-11-30T14:06:41","slug":"australian-vs-us-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/11\/30\/australian-vs-us-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Has the Australian Dollar Topped Out?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Australian dollar has been <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/tag\/audusd\/\">one of my favorite ways to bet against the U.S. dollar<\/a>. Earlier this month, the Aussie broke through parity and reached all-time highs versus the U.S. dollar. Since then, the currency has moved steadily lower, taking a brief pause to form the right shoulder in an ominous-looking <a href=\"http:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/h\/head-shoulders.asp\">head and shoulders (H&#038;S) topping pattern<\/a>. Over the past 3 days, the Aussie finally broke down from this H&#038;S pattern.<\/p>\n<p>I am always circumspect about H&#038;S patterns because they seem so prone to fake-outs. Indeed, the chart below shows the current breakdown as well as the last breakdown that preceded a very strong rally in the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3552\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3552\" style=\"width: 527px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/101130_AUDUSD.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/101130_AUDUSD.jpg\" alt=\"Has the Australian dollar finally topped out?\" title=\"Has the Australian dollar finally topped out?\" width=\"537\" height=\"356\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3552\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/101130_AUDUSD.jpg 537w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/101130_AUDUSD-300x198.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 537px) 100vw, 537px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3552\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Has the Australian dollar finally topped out?<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyfx.com\/charts\/netdaniachart\/?symbol=AUD\/USD\">Dailyfx.com charts<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<p>So, this pattern warrants watching, but I also recognize that the relief rally in the U.S. dollar may soon come to an end as it approaches a critical test with its 200-day moving average (DMA). <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/08\/03\/critical-juncture-for-usd\/\">The 200DMA has served as a very reliable guidepost of resistance and support for the U.S. dollar index<\/a>. So, I will be following THAT indicator even more closely (note that the Australian dollar is NOT part of the U.S. dollar index). Also, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailyfx.com\/calendar?tz=-5&#038;sort=date&#038;week=2010%2F1128&#038;eur=false&#038;usd=false&#038;jpy=false&#038;gbp=false&#038;chf=false&#038;aud=true&#038;cad=false&#038;nzd=false&#038;cny=false&#038;high=true&#038;medium=false&#038;low=false\">Australian GDP numbers are released later tonight<\/a>. This GDP report takes on extra significance as markets worry that China&#8217;s monetary tightening combined with Australia&#8217;s hikes in interest rates are threatening to weaken the Australian economy.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_3554\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-3554\" style=\"width: 515px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/101129_DXY0.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/101129_DXY0.jpg\" alt=\"The dollar&#039;s relief rally is reaching a critical test at the 200DMA\" title=\"The dollar&#039;s relief rally is reaching a critical test at the 200DMA\" width=\"525\" height=\"353\" class=\"size-full wp-image-3554\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/101129_DXY0.jpg 525w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/11\/101129_DXY0-300x201.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 525px) 100vw, 525px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-3554\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The dollar's relief rally is reaching a critical test at the 200DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n*<strong>Chart created using TeleChart:<\/strong> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/CURRENTAFPROMO.aspx?AFCODE=866\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.worden.com\/Content\/Banners\/images\/88x31.gif\"><\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long FXA, long AUD\/USD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Australian dollar has been one of my favorite ways to bet against the U.S. dollar. Earlier this month, the Aussie broke through parity and reached all-time highs versus the U.S. dollar. Since then, the currency has moved steadily lower, taking a brief pause to form the right shoulder in an ominous-looking head and shoulders &#8230; <a title=\"Has the Australian Dollar Topped Out?\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/11\/30\/australian-vs-us-dollar\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,20,62,21],"tags":[308,309,448,1597],"class_list":["post-3551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-forex","category-technical-analysis","category-u-s-dollar","tag-audusd","tag-fxa","tag-rydex-currencyshares-australian-dollar-trust-etf","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Has the Australian Dollar Topped Out? - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/11\/30\/australian-vs-us-dollar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Has the Australian Dollar Topped Out? - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The Australian dollar has been one of my favorite ways to bet against the U.S. dollar. Earlier this month, the Aussie broke through parity and reached all-time highs versus the U.S. dollar. Since then, the currency has moved steadily lower, taking a brief pause to form the right shoulder in an ominous-looking head and shoulders ... 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