{"id":35486,"date":"2016-10-01T15:30:21","date_gmt":"2016-10-01T22:30:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=35486"},"modified":"2016-10-01T15:30:21","modified_gmt":"2016-10-01T22:30:21","slug":"awaiting-next-sell-signal-as-sp-500-enters-seasons-danger-zone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/10\/01\/awaiting-next-sell-signal-as-sp-500-enters-seasons-danger-zone\/","title":{"rendered":"Awaiting the Next Sell Signal As the S&P 500 Enters the Season’s “Danger Zone”"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 8, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Almost a year ago, I wrote about an interesting signal that tends to accompany a significant top<\/a> in the S&P 500 (SPY) – “significant” meaning preceding a sell-off of 10% or more. When the 200-day moving average (DMA) experiences a negative 5-day change, the uptrend stalls out and the index tops out. I called the related signal the “200-DMA post-peak correction signal.” Now that the S&P 500 is hitting all-time highs again after 14-month drought, I am on watch for this signal. I am particularly interested in tracking this signal because the trading calendar has entered the most important season for market drawdowns. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"August,<\/a>
August, September, and October are the S&P 500’s most dangerous months on an average basis. On a median basis, maximum drawdowns do not have such a dramatic spread of performance.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource for price data: Yahoo Finance<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

In other words, last year’s triggering of the 200-DMA post-peak correction signal was a good buying opportunity for long-term investors. Shorter-term traders could look forward to the prospect for deeper selling before the next bottom occurred. <\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The 200-day moving average signal for corrections after an all-time high<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource for price data: Yahoo Finance<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

While my interpretation of the 200-DMA signal worked out this time around, it did not (and could not) suggest how many lows would yet occur before the S&P 500 found the final bottom that would subsequently lead to the next all-time high. However, it did suggest that the bounces form the August low and even the January low were not likely the final post-peak bottoms. Now that another post-peak cycle is behind us, I have learned a little better how to use this indicator. {snip}<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

The most notable characteristic of the current all-time high cycle that sets it apart from others is monetary policy. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"This<\/a>
This weekly view of the VIX shows how volatility is in a zone that typically does not last long and precedes episodes of volatility spikes.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Since volatility tends to bounce off current levels, I am particularly sensitive to signs of topping behavior…even ahead of the post-peak signal triggering. {snip}<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SDS shares and SSO put options, long UVXY shares<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 8, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 8, 2016. Click here to read the entire piece.) Almost a year ago, I wrote about an interesting signal that tends to accompany a significant top in the S&P 500 (SPY) – “significant” meaning preceding a sell-off of 10% or … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[62,1210,920],"tags":[1152,65,656,362,446],"class_list":["post-35486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-technical-analysis","category-trading-model","category-uptrend","tag-all-time-high","tag-sp-500","tag-sds","tag-spy","tag-sso"],"yoast_head":"\nAwaiting the Next Sell Signal As the S&P 500 Enters the Season's "Danger Zone" - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2016\/10\/01\/awaiting-next-sell-signal-as-sp-500-enters-seasons-danger-zone\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Awaiting the Next Sell Signal As the S&P 500 Enters the Season's "Danger Zone" - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 8, 2016. 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